From 08b82f2b1f0fdaaa83fb3ec153643c0db5ea811c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Mon, 17 Jun 2024 23:47:05 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 01/22] feat: First take at private school VAT --- .../private_school_attendance_rate.yaml | 23 +++++++++++ .../contrib/labour/private_school_vat.yaml | 6 +++ .../contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 41 +++++++++++++++++++ 3 files changed, 70 insertions(+) create mode 100644 policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml create mode 100644 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.yaml create mode 100644 policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml new file mode 100644 index 000000000..ff9b577a3 --- /dev/null +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ +description: Rate at which households enroll children in private schools, by decile. +-1: + 2000-01-01: 0 +1: + 2000-01-01: 0.01 +2: + 2000-01-01: 0.02 +3: + 2000-01-01: 0.03 +4: + 2000-01-01: 0.04 +5: + 2000-01-01: 0.05 +6: + 2000-01-01: 0.06 +7: + 2000-01-01: 0.07 +8: + 2000-01-01: 0.08 +9: + 2000-01-01: 0.09 +10: + 2000-01-01: 0.1 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.yaml new file mode 100644 index 000000000..17cc03eb6 --- /dev/null +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +description: VAT rate applied to private schools. +values: + 2000-01-01: 0 +metadata: + unit: /1 + label: private school VAT rate \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py new file mode 100644 index 000000000..feb530f45 --- /dev/null +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +from policyengine_uk.model_api import * +from sys import stderr + +AVG_YEARLY_PRIVATE_SCHOOL_COST = 15_700 + + +class private_school_vat(Variable): + label = "Private school VAT" + entity = Household + definition_period = YEAR + value_type = float + unit = "currency-GBP" + + def formula(household, period, parameters): + private_school_vat_rate: float = parameters( + period + ).gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat + print(private_school_vat_rate, stderr) + household_income_decile: int = household( + "household_income_decile", period + ) + print(household_income_decile, stderr) + attends_private_school: bool = ( + random(household) + < parameters( + period + ).calibration.programs.private_school_vat.private_school_attendance_rate[ + household_income_decile + ] + ) + # num_children = How do we count children? num_children is a benunit var + + # The below is incorrect + num_people: int = household("household_count_people", period) + + return ( + attends_private_school + * num_people + * AVG_YEARLY_PRIVATE_SCHOOL_COST + * private_school_vat_rate + ) From 8ed6c3071cd661cb55519922b326f528717d557c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2024 00:03:32 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 02/22] fix: Correct how private school fees are stored --- .../programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml | 8 ++++++++ .../variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 9 ++++----- 2 files changed, 12 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) create mode 100644 policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml new file mode 100644 index 000000000..c5455c798 --- /dev/null +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +description: Mean annual private school fee +values: + 2022-01-01: 15_200 +metadata: + unit: currency-GBP + reference: + - title: Tax, private school fees and state school spending + href: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index feb530f45..02c46bc1a 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -1,8 +1,6 @@ from policyengine_uk.model_api import * from sys import stderr -AVG_YEARLY_PRIVATE_SCHOOL_COST = 15_700 - class private_school_vat(Variable): label = "Private school VAT" @@ -15,11 +13,9 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): private_school_vat_rate: float = parameters( period ).gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat - print(private_school_vat_rate, stderr) household_income_decile: int = household( "household_income_decile", period ) - print(household_income_decile, stderr) attends_private_school: bool = ( random(household) < parameters( @@ -28,6 +24,9 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): household_income_decile ] ) + avg_yearly_private_school_cost = parameters( + period + ).calibration.programs.private_school_vat.private_school_fees # num_children = How do we count children? num_children is a benunit var # The below is incorrect @@ -36,6 +35,6 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): return ( attends_private_school * num_people - * AVG_YEARLY_PRIVATE_SCHOOL_COST + * avg_yearly_private_school_cost * private_school_vat_rate ) From 76cc194421ad8172199763d21c8beab17714df7d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2024 18:53:24 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 03/22] fix: Remove stderr call --- policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 2 -- 1 file changed, 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index 02c46bc1a..be25ea2f5 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -1,6 +1,4 @@ from policyengine_uk.model_api import * -from sys import stderr - class private_school_vat(Variable): label = "Private school VAT" From 4b5b1b12194cf2d3ab80f7f5f6f33acd813f3f9f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2024 19:41:55 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 04/22] fix: Add addition of children from household --- .../contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 41 +++++++++++++++---- 1 file changed, 32 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index be25ea2f5..588a18ab8 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -1,19 +1,27 @@ from policyengine_uk.model_api import * class private_school_vat(Variable): - label = "Private school VAT" + label = "private school VAT" entity = Household definition_period = YEAR value_type = float unit = "currency-GBP" def formula(household, period, parameters): + ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1 + private_school_vat_rate: float = parameters( period ).gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat + + avg_yearly_private_school_cost: float = parameters( + period + ).calibration.programs.private_school_vat.private_school_fees + household_income_decile: int = household( "household_income_decile", period ) + attends_private_school: bool = ( random(household) < parameters( @@ -22,17 +30,32 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): household_income_decile ] ) - avg_yearly_private_school_cost = parameters( - period - ).calibration.programs.private_school_vat.private_school_fees - # num_children = How do we count children? num_children is a benunit var - - # The below is incorrect - num_people: int = household("household_count_people", period) + num_children = add(household, period, ["is_child"]) return ( attends_private_school - * num_people + * num_children * avg_yearly_private_school_cost * private_school_vat_rate ) + + +# CODE IN +# +# percent_in_private_school_by_percentile = [0, 0, 0, ..., 0.45, 0.5] +# ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1 +# adjusted_percent_in_private_school_by_percentile *= ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR +# +# # calculate household income percentile +# # map to percent in private school +# # put kids in private school according to that percentage (mostly done here except percentile not decile) +# ... +# TESTING_CODE +# is_child = [False, False, True, False, ...] +# child_household_weight = [500, 1000, 2000, 700, ...] +# is_in_private_school = [False, False, True, False, ...] +# (is_in_private_school * child_household_weight).sum() +# +# model_predicted_kids_in_private_school = 800k # should be 600k +# +# \ No newline at end of file From bdf3971a94509076b5a4c2d912ef7e6f51da0fde Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2024 22:28:34 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 05/22] fix: Fix --- .../private_school_attendance_rate.yaml | 61 +++++++++++++------ 1 file changed, 43 insertions(+), 18 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml index ff9b577a3..d3a60ef1a 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml @@ -1,23 +1,48 @@ -description: Rate at which households enroll children in private schools, by decile. --1: +description: Rate at which households enroll children in private schools, by percentile. +0: 2000-01-01: 0 -1: +5: + 2000-01-01: 0.025 +10: + 2000-01-01: 0.0125 +15: + 2000-01-01: 0.01 +20: + 2000-01-01: 0.005 +25: + 2000-01-01: 0.008 +30: 2000-01-01: 0.01 -2: - 2000-01-01: 0.02 -3: +35: + 2000-01-01: 0.015 +40: + 2000-01-01: 0.01 +45: + 2000-01-01: 0.0175 +50: + 2000-01-01: 0.025 +55: + 2000-01-01: 0.0175 +60: + 2000-01-01: 0.0175 +65: + 2000-01-01: 0.025 +70: 2000-01-01: 0.03 -4: - 2000-01-01: 0.04 -5: +75: + 2000-01-01: 0.025 +80: 2000-01-01: 0.05 -6: +85: 2000-01-01: 0.06 -7: - 2000-01-01: 0.07 -8: - 2000-01-01: 0.08 -9: - 2000-01-01: 0.09 -10: - 2000-01-01: 0.1 \ No newline at end of file +90: + 2000-01-01: 0.0875 +95: + 2000-01-01: 0.13 +100: + 2000-01-01: 0.47 +metadata: + unit: /1 + reference: + - title: Income, housing wealth, and private school access in Britain + href: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09645292.2021.1874878 \ No newline at end of file From 5e3bf6aaf2781046c9d8126686cfec2920329ce0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2024 22:44:33 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 06/22] feat: Table of total student population --- .../people/total_private_school_students.yaml | 17 +++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 17 insertions(+) create mode 100644 policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/demographics/people/total_private_school_students.yaml diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/demographics/people/total_private_school_students.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/demographics/people/total_private_school_students.yaml new file mode 100644 index 000000000..8a7871150 --- /dev/null +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/demographics/people/total_private_school_students.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +description: Total number of private school students +value: + 2015-01-01: 583_029 + 2016-01-01: 583_268 + 2017-01-01: 581_873 + 2018-01-01: 580_480 + 2019-01-01: 576_857 + 2020-01-01: 569_366 + 2021-01-01: 581_427 + 2022-01-01: 591_954 + 2023-01-01: 593_486 +metadata: + unit: person + label: total number of private school students + reference: + - title: 'School characteristics' for Academy, Independent, Independent school, LA Maintained, Non-maintained special school and 5 other filters in England between 2015/16 and 2023/24 + href: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/fast-track/27e148e3-2581-4bc3-b0bc-08dc6f35f09f \ No newline at end of file From a58d31f797da1c83764e8f5bfd6ea75764d19861 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Wed, 19 Jun 2024 23:59:12 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 07/22] feat: Add percentile calculation for private school VAT --- .../people/total_private_school_students.yaml | 2 +- .../contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 40 ++++++------------- 2 files changed, 14 insertions(+), 28 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/demographics/people/total_private_school_students.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/demographics/people/total_private_school_students.yaml index 8a7871150..594339332 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/demographics/people/total_private_school_students.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/demographics/people/total_private_school_students.yaml @@ -13,5 +13,5 @@ metadata: unit: person label: total number of private school students reference: - - title: 'School characteristics' for Academy, Independent, Independent school, LA Maintained, Non-maintained special school and 5 other filters in England between 2015/16 and 2023/24 + - title: School characteristics for Academy, Independent, Independent school, LA Maintained, Non-maintained special school and 5 other filters in England between 2015/16 and 2023/24 href: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/fast-track/27e148e3-2581-4bc3-b0bc-08dc6f35f09f \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index 588a18ab8..a3f9f338c 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -1,5 +1,6 @@ from policyengine_uk.model_api import * + class private_school_vat(Variable): label = "private school VAT" entity = Household @@ -10,24 +11,30 @@ class private_school_vat(Variable): def formula(household, period, parameters): ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1 - private_school_vat_rate: float = parameters( + private_school_vat_rate = parameters( period ).gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat - avg_yearly_private_school_cost: float = parameters( + avg_yearly_private_school_cost = parameters( period ).calibration.programs.private_school_vat.private_school_fees - household_income_decile: int = household( - "household_income_decile", period + income = household("household_net_income", period) + count_people = household("household_count_people", period) + household_weight = household("household_weight", period) + weighted_income = MicroSeries( + income, weights=household_weight * count_people + ) + percentile = weighted_income.percentile_rank().values.astype( + numpy.int64 ) - attends_private_school: bool = ( + attends_private_school = ( random(household) < parameters( period ).calibration.programs.private_school_vat.private_school_attendance_rate[ - household_income_decile + percentile - (percentile % 5) ] ) num_children = add(household, period, ["is_child"]) @@ -38,24 +45,3 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): * avg_yearly_private_school_cost * private_school_vat_rate ) - - -# CODE IN -# -# percent_in_private_school_by_percentile = [0, 0, 0, ..., 0.45, 0.5] -# ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1 -# adjusted_percent_in_private_school_by_percentile *= ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR -# -# # calculate household income percentile -# # map to percent in private school -# # put kids in private school according to that percentage (mostly done here except percentile not decile) -# ... -# TESTING_CODE -# is_child = [False, False, True, False, ...] -# child_household_weight = [500, 1000, 2000, 700, ...] -# is_in_private_school = [False, False, True, False, ...] -# (is_in_private_school * child_household_weight).sum() -# -# model_predicted_kids_in_private_school = 800k # should be 600k -# -# \ No newline at end of file From ab0e54174eb255bc2894964a27d244af8db20018 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Thu, 20 Jun 2024 20:46:22 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 08/22] fix: Add adjustment factor --- policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 3 ++- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index a3f9f338c..b089b4fd2 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ class private_school_vat(Variable): unit = "currency-GBP" def formula(household, period, parameters): - ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1 + ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.1067 private_school_vat_rate = parameters( period @@ -44,4 +44,5 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): * num_children * avg_yearly_private_school_cost * private_school_vat_rate + * ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR ) From 599c478b99c5dbeaea33fea7f4343bb0cc694147 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Thu, 20 Jun 2024 21:42:18 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 09/22] chore: Changelog --- changelog_entry.yaml | 4 ++++ 1 file changed, 4 insertions(+) diff --git a/changelog_entry.yaml b/changelog_entry.yaml index e69de29bb..602105486 100644 --- a/changelog_entry.yaml +++ b/changelog_entry.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +- bump: patch + changes: + added: + - Private school VAT calculation \ No newline at end of file From d61f4d1c79e5de7510ab7a3e8ca12b0c865c367d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 23:53:17 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 10/22] fix: Change to using market income --- policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 2 +- policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/tax.py | 1 + 2 files changed, 2 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index b089b4fd2..7ed8e0108 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): period ).calibration.programs.private_school_vat.private_school_fees - income = household("household_net_income", period) + income = household("household_market_income", period) count_people = household("household_count_people", period) household_weight = household("household_weight", period) weighted_income = MicroSeries( diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/tax.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/tax.py index 6193bd077..6bbb6e53c 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/tax.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/hmrc/tax.py @@ -36,6 +36,7 @@ class household_tax(Variable): "carbon_tax", "vat_change", "capital_gains_tax", + "private_school_vat", ] def formula(household, period, parameters): From ae25dc058517c269a0d4233bf0da21fa3603dca7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Sat, 22 Jun 2024 23:33:59 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 11/22] fix: Change modification factor --- policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index 7ed8e0108..a0a98363a 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ class private_school_vat(Variable): unit = "currency-GBP" def formula(household, period, parameters): - ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.1067 + ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.0586 private_school_vat_rate = parameters( period From f800f07b4b105fa6ad5cbea9396983d6bb37cb53 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Sun, 23 Jun 2024 00:06:30 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 12/22] fix: Use effective rate multiplier --- .../variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 14 ++++++++++++-- 1 file changed, 12 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index a0a98363a..9347de735 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -9,7 +9,16 @@ class private_school_vat(Variable): unit = "currency-GBP" def formula(household, period, parameters): - ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.0586 + + # To ensure that our model matches + # total number of students actually enrolled + STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.0586 + + # Per IFS article + # (https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending), + # about 25% of private school costs would be + # effectively VAT-free + EFFECTIVE_RATE_FACTOR = 0.75 private_school_vat_rate = parameters( period @@ -44,5 +53,6 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): * num_children * avg_yearly_private_school_cost * private_school_vat_rate - * ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR + * STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR + * EFFECTIVE_RATE_FACTOR ) From be414219e8c9bf4b5e7f5225f9b2ebd206a4e0c0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Sun, 23 Jun 2024 01:23:21 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 13/22] fix: Fix test --- .../tests/policy/baseline/demographic/poverty.yaml | 1 + .../variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 4 ++-- 2 files changed, 3 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/demographic/poverty.yaml b/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/demographic/poverty.yaml index 4aaa451ed..729c832e8 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/demographic/poverty.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/demographic/poverty.yaml @@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ age: 35 household_gross_income: 0 is_household_head: true + household_weight: 1 output: poverty_gap_bhc: 220 * 52 in_poverty_bhc: true diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index 9347de735..72c78edd6 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -9,12 +9,12 @@ class private_school_vat(Variable): unit = "currency-GBP" def formula(household, period, parameters): - + # To ensure that our model matches # total number of students actually enrolled STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.0586 - # Per IFS article + # Per IFS article # (https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending), # about 25% of private school costs would be # effectively VAT-free From 637b2d5c030c030256e23cff5a66fa46647c0c34 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 12:37:34 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 14/22] feat: Uprate tuition with CPI --- .../programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml | 3 ++- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml index c5455c798..a24ac5052 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml @@ -5,4 +5,5 @@ metadata: unit: currency-GBP reference: - title: Tax, private school fees and state school spending - href: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending \ No newline at end of file + href: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending + uprating: calibration.uprating.CPI \ No newline at end of file From a527840a841b814c2b02b3c483c4134d7385224a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 17:18:43 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 15/22] fix: Move private school VAT files --- .../private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml | 0 .../simulation}/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml | 0 policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py | 1 + .../variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 4 ++-- 4 files changed, 3 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) rename policyengine_uk/parameters/{calibration/programs => gov/simulation}/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml (100%) rename policyengine_uk/parameters/{calibration/programs => gov/simulation}/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml (100%) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml similarity index 100% rename from policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml rename to policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml similarity index 100% rename from policyengine_uk/parameters/calibration/programs/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml rename to policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml diff --git a/policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py b/policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py index d3f69c874..ccad1692f 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py @@ -341,6 +341,7 @@ class household_tax(Variable): "capital_gains_tax", "corporate_incident_tax_revenue_change", "consumer_incident_tax_revenue_change", + "private_school_vat" ] def formula(household, period, parameters): diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index 72c78edd6..77e07f47b 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): avg_yearly_private_school_cost = parameters( period - ).calibration.programs.private_school_vat.private_school_fees + ).gov.simulation.private_school_vat.private_school_fees income = household("household_market_income", period) count_people = household("household_count_people", period) @@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): random(household) < parameters( period - ).calibration.programs.private_school_vat.private_school_attendance_rate[ + ).gov.simulation.private_school_vat.private_school_attendance_rate[ percentile - (percentile % 5) ] ) From 0bd382ce256f741b85d649038088425cdeac060e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 17:22:57 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 16/22] feat: Add private school VAT basis as param --- .../private_school_vat_basis.yaml | 13 +++++++++++++ .../variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 10 ++++------ 2 files changed, 17 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) create mode 100644 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_vat_basis.yaml diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_vat_basis.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_vat_basis.yaml new file mode 100644 index 000000000..60f922016 --- /dev/null +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_vat_basis.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +description: Effective percentage of private school tuition subject to VAT +# Per IFS article +# (https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending), +# about 25% of private school costs would be +# effectively VAT-free +value: + 0000-01-01: 0.75 +metadata: + unit: /1 + label: private school tuition VAT basis + reference: + - title: Tax, private school fees and state school spending + href: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index 77e07f47b..104aa5ec9 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -14,11 +14,9 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): # total number of students actually enrolled STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.0586 - # Per IFS article - # (https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending), - # about 25% of private school costs would be - # effectively VAT-free - EFFECTIVE_RATE_FACTOR = 0.75 + private_school_vat_basis = parameters( + period + ).gov.simulation.private_school_vat.private_school_vat_basis private_school_vat_rate = parameters( period @@ -53,6 +51,6 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): * num_children * avg_yearly_private_school_cost * private_school_vat_rate + * private_school_vat_basis * STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR - * EFFECTIVE_RATE_FACTOR ) From 2773f8d377fcabc6c3dd8404ea4f721e8da0e961 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 17:25:10 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 17/22] fix: Refactor parameters at period calls --- .../variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 11 ++++------- 1 file changed, 4 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index 104aa5ec9..670d8cb50 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -14,18 +14,15 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): # total number of students actually enrolled STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.0586 - private_school_vat_basis = parameters( - period - ).gov.simulation.private_school_vat.private_school_vat_basis + ps_vat_params = parameters(period).gov.simulation.private_school_vat + + private_school_vat_basis = ps_vat_params.private_school_vat_basis + avg_yearly_private_school_cost = ps_vat_params.private_school_fees private_school_vat_rate = parameters( period ).gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat - avg_yearly_private_school_cost = parameters( - period - ).gov.simulation.private_school_vat.private_school_fees - income = household("household_market_income", period) count_people = household("household_count_people", period) household_weight = household("household_weight", period) From 9ad9436f43c5b95c403eba5168acef047359e1d9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 18:05:05 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 18/22] fix: Better estimate net income --- .../private_school_vat_basis.yaml | 2 +- .../contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 17 +++++++++++++++-- 2 files changed, 16 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_vat_basis.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_vat_basis.yaml index 60f922016..8a63deb67 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_vat_basis.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_vat_basis.yaml @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ description: Effective percentage of private school tuition subject to VAT # (https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending), # about 25% of private school costs would be # effectively VAT-free -value: +values: 0000-01-01: 0.75 metadata: unit: /1 diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index 670d8cb50..6bfff9e41 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -1,4 +1,5 @@ from policyengine_uk.model_api import * +from policyengine_uk.variables.gov.hmrc.tax import household_tax class private_school_vat(Variable): @@ -23,11 +24,23 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): period ).gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat - income = household("household_market_income", period) + person = household.members + + taxes = household.sum( + person("income_tax", period) + + person("national_insurance", period) + ) + + net_income = ( + household("household_market_income", period) + + household("household_benefits", period) - + taxes + ) + count_people = household("household_count_people", period) household_weight = household("household_weight", period) weighted_income = MicroSeries( - income, weights=household_weight * count_people + net_income, weights=household_weight * count_people ) percentile = weighted_income.percentile_rank().values.astype( numpy.int64 From 102b09fa38ce92da6a2606f24fde652f5a61f651 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 18:58:39 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 19/22] feat: Interpolate percentiles --- .../reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py | 2 +- .../contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 39 ++++++++++++------- 2 files changed, 26 insertions(+), 15 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py b/policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py index ccad1692f..9d7455acc 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py @@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ class household_tax(Variable): "capital_gains_tax", "corporate_incident_tax_revenue_change", "consumer_incident_tax_revenue_change", - "private_school_vat" + "private_school_vat", ] def formula(household, period, parameters): diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index 6bfff9e41..96b3e0120 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -10,7 +10,6 @@ class private_school_vat(Variable): unit = "currency-GBP" def formula(household, period, parameters): - # To ensure that our model matches # total number of students actually enrolled STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.0586 @@ -19,6 +18,9 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): private_school_vat_basis = ps_vat_params.private_school_vat_basis avg_yearly_private_school_cost = ps_vat_params.private_school_fees + private_school_attendance_rate = ( + ps_vat_params.private_school_attendance_rate + ) private_school_vat_rate = parameters( period @@ -27,14 +29,13 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): person = household.members taxes = household.sum( - person("income_tax", period) + - person("national_insurance", period) + person("income_tax", period) + person("national_insurance", period) ) net_income = ( - household("household_market_income", period) + - household("household_benefits", period) - - taxes + household("household_market_income", period) + + household("household_benefits", period) + - taxes ) count_people = household("household_count_people", period) @@ -46,14 +47,11 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): numpy.int64 ) - attends_private_school = ( - random(household) - < parameters( - period - ).gov.simulation.private_school_vat.private_school_attendance_rate[ - percentile - (percentile % 5) - ] - ) + attends_private_school = random(household) < [ + interpolate_percentile(private_school_attendance_rate, p) + for p in percentile + ] + print(type(attends_private_school)) num_children = add(household, period, ["is_child"]) return ( @@ -64,3 +62,16 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): * private_school_vat_basis * STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR ) + + +def interpolate_percentile(param, percentile): + + if str(percentile) in param: + return param[str(percentile)] + else: + idx = percentile - (percentile % 5) + p1 = idx + p2 = idx + 5 + v1 = param[str(idx)] + v2 = param[str(idx + 5)] + return v1 + (v2 - v1) * (percentile - p1) / (p2 - p1) From f9593b773780a1c49e64572e6d481c2c722cb05e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "PolicyEngine[bot]" Date: Thu, 27 Jun 2024 19:00:54 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 20/22] fix: Add labels --- .../private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml | 1 + .../gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml | 1 + 2 files changed, 2 insertions(+) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml index d3a60ef1a..34a98b6e9 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_attendance_rate.yaml @@ -43,6 +43,7 @@ description: Rate at which households enroll children in private schools, by per 2000-01-01: 0.47 metadata: unit: /1 + label: percentage of students in private school, by household net income percentile reference: - title: Income, housing wealth, and private school access in Britain href: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09645292.2021.1874878 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml index a24ac5052..955c86d76 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/private_school_vat/private_school_fees.yaml @@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ values: 2022-01-01: 15_200 metadata: unit: currency-GBP + label: mean annual private school fee reference: - title: Tax, private school fees and state school spending href: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending From ba1a7db294734a22946db60ecbd97ce770dbba87 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nikhil Woodruff Date: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 01:41:34 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 21/22] Separate attendance logic and increase EFRS sample size --- .../data/datasets/frs/enhanced_frs.py | 40 +++++++++- .../data/gov/enhanced_frs_brmas.csv.gz | Bin 27185 -> 130514 bytes .../contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 73 +++++++++++------- 3 files changed, 81 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/data/datasets/frs/enhanced_frs.py b/policyengine_uk/data/datasets/frs/enhanced_frs.py index 73be765d2..718d86f57 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/data/datasets/frs/enhanced_frs.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/data/datasets/frs/enhanced_frs.py @@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ from ..utils import STORAGE_FOLDER from .frs import FRS_2019_20 from .calibration.calibrated_frs import CalibratedSPIEnhancedPooledFRS_2019_21 +from .stacked_frs import StackedFRS import yaml import copy @@ -137,10 +138,41 @@ def generate(self): self.save_dataset(data) -EnhancedFRS = ImputationExtendedFRS.from_dataset( +ImputedCalibratedFRS = ImputationExtendedFRS.from_dataset( CalibratedSPIEnhancedPooledFRS_2019_21, - "enhanced_frs", - "Enhanced FRS", + "imputed_calibrated_frs", + "Imputed-Calibrated FRS", new_num_years=7, - new_url="release://policyengine/non-public-microdata/uk-2024-march-efo/enhanced_frs.h5", ) + + +class EnhancedFRS(Dataset): + name = "enhanced_frs" + label = "Enhanced FRS" + file_path = STORAGE_FOLDER / "enhanced_frs.h5" + data_format = Dataset.TIME_PERIOD_ARRAYS + num_years = 7 + time_period = 2021 + count_copies = 4 + url = "release://policyengine/non-public-microdata/uk-2024-march-efo/enhanced_frs.h5" + + def generate(self): + from policyengine_uk.tools.stack_datasets import stack_datasets + + data = ImputedCalibratedFRS().load_dataset() + + copies = [] + for _ in range(self.count_copies): + copies.append(copy.deepcopy(data)) + + for time_period in data["household_weight"]: + original_weights = data["household_weight"][time_period].copy() + for dataset in [data] + copies: + dataset["household_weight"][time_period] = original_weights / ( + self.count_copies + 1 + ) + + for dataset in copies: + data = stack_datasets(data, dataset) + + self.save_dataset(data) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/data/gov/enhanced_frs_brmas.csv.gz b/policyengine_uk/data/gov/enhanced_frs_brmas.csv.gz index 55697cf359cb9fa7d864f861c587309a5f17685e..e1c165c416e3d938074f533206c55f723f9b2659 100644 GIT binary patch literal 130514 zcmV(vK)@ti8)}97(b)xaVJ? ziXaIo6i@;X&8`*Y&VDxY|BJ~Cw}+~knn$4JZqBI&fy@Yh*i%jQ|M~y^-~aRFpVzma 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z*RNuXVXHX>y?5F9G;MRSdVVa{-0splN=ag!D;w~85LW;|FLOLFZs~-I6Ld|C{-m84 zG@XmB@3^X>gL|1SUl0RR630EQ=?)4zxU E05Q0)jsO4v diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index 96b3e0120..a5ceab924 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -2,32 +2,26 @@ from policyengine_uk.variables.gov.hmrc.tax import household_tax -class private_school_vat(Variable): - label = "private school VAT" - entity = Household +class attends_private_school(Variable): + label = "attends private school" + entity = Person definition_period = YEAR - value_type = float - unit = "currency-GBP" + value_type = bool - def formula(household, period, parameters): + def formula(person, period, parameters): + household = person.household # To ensure that our model matches # total number of students actually enrolled - STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.0586 ps_vat_params = parameters(period).gov.simulation.private_school_vat - - private_school_vat_basis = ps_vat_params.private_school_vat_basis - avg_yearly_private_school_cost = ps_vat_params.private_school_fees private_school_attendance_rate = ( ps_vat_params.private_school_attendance_rate ) - private_school_vat_rate = parameters( - period - ).gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat - person = household.members + is_child = person("is_child", period) + taxes = household.sum( person("income_tax", period) + person("national_insurance", period) ) @@ -38,34 +32,57 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): - taxes ) - count_people = household("household_count_people", period) household_weight = household("household_weight", period) - weighted_income = MicroSeries( - net_income, weights=household_weight * count_people + weighted_income = MicroSeries(net_income, weights=household_weight) + percentile = ( + weighted_income.percentile_rank() + .clip(0, 100) + .values.astype(numpy.int64) ) - percentile = weighted_income.percentile_rank().values.astype( - numpy.int64 + STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1 + + p_attends_private_school = ( + np.array( + [ + interpolate_percentile(private_school_attendance_rate, p) + for p in percentile + ] + ) + * STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR + * is_child ) - attends_private_school = random(household) < [ - interpolate_percentile(private_school_attendance_rate, p) - for p in percentile - ] - print(type(attends_private_school)) - num_children = add(household, period, ["is_child"]) + return random(person) < p_attends_private_school + + +class private_school_vat(Variable): + label = "private school VAT" + entity = Household + definition_period = YEAR + value_type = float + unit = "currency-GBP" + + def formula(household, period, parameters): + num_children = add(household, period, ["attends_private_school"]) + + ps_vat_params = parameters(period).gov.simulation.private_school_vat + private_school_vat_basis = ps_vat_params.private_school_vat_basis + avg_yearly_private_school_cost = ps_vat_params.private_school_fees + + private_school_vat_rate = parameters( + period + ).gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat return ( - attends_private_school + num_children * num_children * avg_yearly_private_school_cost * private_school_vat_rate * private_school_vat_basis - * STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR ) def interpolate_percentile(param, percentile): - if str(percentile) in param: return param[str(percentile)] else: From 34d0408c21fce4fc2a28ef8fbd08866b194580ba Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nikhil Woodruff Date: Fri, 28 Jun 2024 01:44:18 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 22/22] Fix bugs, get 600k kids and 1.5bn revenue --- policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py | 3 +-- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py index a5ceab924..025754054 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/private_school_vat.py @@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ def formula(person, period, parameters): .clip(0, 100) .values.astype(numpy.int64) ) - STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1 + STUDENT_POPULATION_ADJUSTMENT_FACTOR = 1.1 p_attends_private_school = ( np.array( @@ -75,7 +75,6 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters): return ( num_children - * num_children * avg_yearly_private_school_cost * private_school_vat_rate * private_school_vat_basis