diff --git a/changelog_entry.yaml b/changelog_entry.yaml index e69de29bb..53a790adb 100644 --- a/changelog_entry.yaml +++ b/changelog_entry.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +- bump: minor + changes: + fixed: + - Set the Winter Fuel Allowance to only true in FY24-25. diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/state_pension/triple_lock.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/state_pension/triple_lock.yaml index e3bc6d365..9d77fb11d 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/state_pension/triple_lock.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/state_pension/triple_lock.yaml @@ -17,12 +17,12 @@ values: 2018-01-01: 1.290 2019-01-01: 1.323 2020-01-01: 1.375 - 2021-01-01: 1.409 - 2022-01-01: 1.453 - 2023-01-01: 1.599 - 2024-01-01: 1.735 - 2025-01-01: 1.800 - 2026-01-01: 1.846 - 2027-01-01: 1.893 - 2028-01-01: 1.941 - 2029-01-01: 1.995 \ No newline at end of file + 2021-01-01: 1.409 # Earnings increase FY2020/2019 = 0.2%, CPI increase FY2020/2019 = 0.6% + 2022-01-01: 1.495 # Earnings increase FY2021/2020 = 6.0%, CPI increase FY2021/2020 = 3.9% + 2023-01-01: 1.645 # Earnings increase FY2022/2021 = 5.7%, CPI increase FY2022/2021 = 10.1% + 2024-01-01: 1.751 # Earnings increase FY2023/2022 = 6.5%, CPI increase FY2023/2022 = 5.7% + 2025-01-01: 1.805 # Earnings increase FY2024/2023 = 3.1%, CPI increase FY2024/2023 = 1.6% + 2026-01-01: 1.850 # Earnings increase FY2025/2024 = 1.9%, CPI increase FY2025/2024 = 1.6% + 2027-01-01: 1.896 # Earnings increase FY2026/2025 = 2.2%, CPI increase FY2026/2025 = 1.7% + 2028-01-01: 1.944 # Earnings increase FY2027/2026 = 2.3%, CPI increase FY2027/2026 = 2.0% + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/require_benefits.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/require_benefits.yaml index a218fad01..dcf6c2558 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/require_benefits.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/require_benefits.yaml @@ -1,6 +1,12 @@ description: Whether receipt of means-tested benefits is required to qualify for the Winter Fuel Payment. values: - 2000-01-01: true + 2000-01-01: false + 2024-01-01: + value: true + metadata: + reference: + - title: The Social Fund Winter Fuel Payment Regulations 2024 regulation 2 + href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2024/869/regulation/2 metadata: unit: bool label: Winter Fuel Payment means-tested benefits requirement diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml index 84071511f..e05d93696 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml @@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ values: 2026-01-01: 160.9 2027-01-01: 164.6 2028-01-01: 168.9 + 2029-01-01: 173.3 # Projected metadata: unit: /1 reference: diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml index 0c13e7eff..abacf9834 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml @@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ values: 2026-01-01: 138.2 2027-01-01: 140.9 2028-01-01: 143.7 + 2029-01-01: 146.6 # Projected metadata: unit: /1 reference: diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml index 61128e3a6..87221b682 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml @@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ values: 2026-01-01: 148.6 2027-01-01: 153.8 2028-01-01: 159.5 + 2029-01-01: 165.7 # Projected metadata: unit: currency-GBP reference: diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/food_beverages_and_tobacco.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/food_beverages_and_tobacco.yaml index f3ba8d5b3..92300aaa5 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/food_beverages_and_tobacco.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/food_beverages_and_tobacco.yaml @@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ values: 2026-01-01: 1.387 2027-01-01: 1.426 2028-01-01: 1.461 + 2029-01-01: 1.497 # Projected metadata: unit: currency-GBP reference: OBR diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/utilities.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/utilities.yaml index 3becd47af..91141c161 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/utilities.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/utilities.yaml @@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ values: 2026-01-01: 1.281 2027-01-01: 1.313 2028-01-01: 1.365 + 2029-01-01: 1.418 # Projected metadata: unit: currency-GBP reference: OBR diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml index 48b48835d..fc72b64bb 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml @@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ values: 2026-01-01: 193.5 2027-01-01: 202.3 2028-01-01: 211.8 + 2029-01-01: 221.9 # Projected metadata: reference: - title: OBR March 2024 EFO diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml index 60e63c2b0..8b3351641 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml @@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ values: 2026-01-01: 113.2 2027-01-01: 119.7 2028-01-01: 125.2 + 2029-01-01: 130.7 # Projected metadata: unit: currency-GBP reference: diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml index 2f0c95215..fbfc27e87 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml @@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ values: 2026-01-01: 504.4 2027-01-01: 543.6 2028-01-01: 585.3 + 2029-01-01: 629.3 # Projected metadata: reference: - title: OBR March 2024 EFO diff --git a/policyengine_uk/utils/create_triple_lock.py b/policyengine_uk/utils/create_triple_lock.py new file mode 100644 index 000000000..00f642986 --- /dev/null +++ b/policyengine_uk/utils/create_triple_lock.py @@ -0,0 +1,20 @@ +from policyengine_uk.system import system + +# Run this script to generate the triple lock parameter for updated CPI and average earnings forecasts from the OBR. + +cpi = system.parameters.gov.obr.consumer_price_index +average_earnings = system.parameters.gov.obr.average_earnings + +START_YEAR = 2021 + +triple_lock = system.parameters.gov.dwp.state_pension.triple_lock +lock_value = triple_lock(START_YEAR - 1) + +for year in range(START_YEAR, 2029): + earnings_increase = average_earnings(year - 1) / average_earnings(year - 2) + cpi_increase = cpi(year - 1) / cpi(year - 2) + triple_lock_increase = max(earnings_increase, cpi_increase, 1.025) + lock_value *= triple_lock_increase + print( + f" {year}-01-01: {lock_value:.3f} # Earnings increase FY{year - 1}/{year - 2} = {earnings_increase-1:.1%}, CPI increase FY{year - 1}/{year - 2} = {cpi_increase-1:.1%}" + )