Neuling.Rmd

---
title: "Neuling"
author: "Neuling"
date: "3 12 2018"
output: html_document
---

```{r setup, include=FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE)
```
# Task: Design and upload a Shiny App with R Markdown explaining
# Bayes' Rule with an example from the field of natural
# hazards and disasters. Use the interactive functions to
# allow different input values. Explain the example in your
# own words

# Event: New Zealand are  affected by a lot of natural disasters, e.g earthquakes, floods or landslides. 
# The probability, that the next natural disaster is an earthquake is 1/2000. In Christchurch you find some tipp?s, 
# which are indicators for possible 
# earthquakes. The movement and formation of clouds can predict earthquakes. The probability, that the cloud formation
# showes, that christchurch will be affected is 0.75. What is the probability, that Christchurch is affected by an 
# earthquake, if the clouds show, that an earthquake will be come soon.

# Define all Parameters
P_E <- 0.75    # probability, that the clouds predict correct  
P_W_E <- 0.25  # probability, that the cloud movement are wring  
P_W_N <- 0.9995 # probability, that the next natural disaster is not an earthquake  
P_W_L <- 0.0005 # Probability, that next natural disaster is an earthquake  

# Define Bayes Rule

P_W = (P_E * P_W_L) + (P_W_E * P_W_N)

# Calcute the result and multiply it with 100

P_L_W = P_E * P_W_L / P_W * 100

# The result, that the cloud movement is correct is 0.25025 .