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Selecting Top Bureaucrats: Admission Exams and Performance in Brazil (with Laura Schiavon{:target="_blank"} and Thiago Scot{:target="_blank"})
- Last Updated: June 2021
- PDF{:target="_blank"}, SSRN{:target="_blank"}
- R&R Review of Economics and Statistics
In the absence of strong incentives, public service delivery crucially depends on bureaucrat selection. Despite wide adoption by governments, it is unclear whether civil service examinations reliably select for job performance. We investigate this question focusing on state judges in Brazil. Exploring monthly data on judicial output and cross-court movement, we estimate that judges account for at least 23% of the observed variation in number of cases disposed. With novel data on admission examinations, we show that judges with higher grades perform better than lower-ranked peers. Our results suggest competitive examinations can be an effective way to screen candidates.
**Cutting Special Interests by the Roots: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon** (with [Arthur Bragança](https://arthurbraganca.com/){:target="_blank"}) - Last Updated: July 2021 - [PDF](/files/papers/Braganca and Dahis (2021) Cutting Special Interests by the Roots.pdf){:target="_blank"} - **R&R Journal of Public Economics**
Government policies may impact economic outcomes directly but also indirectly through effects on political equilibria. This paper examines the effects of the PPCDAm – a centralized environmental policy that synced real-time satellite deforestation data with enforcement on the ground – on the behavior and electoral outcomes of a powerful special-interest group operating in the Brazilian Amazon: farmers. Exploiting close elections, we document that municipalities governed by farmer mayors had higher deforestation rates and CO2e emissions, earmarked more resources to agriculture, and experienced more land-related conflict before, but not after, the PPCDAm was implemented. Any electoral advantage these mayors had before the policy also disappears with the introduction of the PPCDAm. Our findings are consistent with a political agency model where candidates use their occupation to signal commitment to deforestation.
**Development via Administrative Redistricting: Evidence from Brazil** (with [Christiane Szerman](https://sites.google.com/view/cszerman/){:target="_blank"}) - Last Updated: May 2021 - [PDF](/files/papers/Dahis and Szerman (2021) Development via Administrative Redistricting.pdf){:target="_blank"} - Coverage: [BBC Brasil](https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-50402258){:target="_blank"} - Recipient of the _Susan Schmidt Bies Prize for Doctoral Student Research on Economics and Public Policy, 2018_
We exploit a large redistricting episode in Brazil to examine if, and how, administrative unit splits impact local development. Using a rich panel of administrative and spatial data, we first document that requests to split are more likely to be initiated by poor and rural districts. Employing a difference-in-differences strategy with areas whose requests to split were never approved serving as a control group, we find that splitting leads to an expansion of the public sector, some improvements in public service delivery and children's education attainment, but no impacts on the private sector. Meanwhile, outcomes are unaffected in parent municipalities. Results are consistent with adaptations of policy to local preferences. Our results inform the equity-efficiency trade-off embedded in decentralization reforms worldwide.
**Changing Racial Identity in the United States, 1880-1940** (with [Emily Nix](https://sites.google.com/site/emilyenix/){:target="_blank"} and [Nancy Qian](https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/qian/){:target="_blank"}) - Last Updated: June 2020 - [PDF](/files/papers/DNQ_2020_0608_FINAL.pdf){:target="_blank"}, [NBER Working Paper w26465](https://www.nber.org/papers/w26465){:target="_blank"} - Coverage: [The Weeds (40:45)](https://open.spotify.com/episode/0QluGZdvuc5lFtt2ygnEtC?si=gSSl7uggTbqXu-LU3YvRSQ){:target="_blank"}, [Kellogg Insight](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/jim-crow-era-discrimination-violence-black-men-passed-white){:target="_blank"} - _Under review_
This paper documents that a large number of African American men experienced a change in racial identity to white during 1880 to 1940, while analogous changes were negligible for other races. We provide descriptive evidence that is consistent with the conventional wisdom that “passing” for white was a response to severe discrimination, and came at great personal cost. The findings suggest that contrary to traditional economic thinking, racial identity is neither entirely exogenous nor fixed over the lifetime, and responds to incentives.
**The Impact of 3G Mobile Internet on Educational Outcomes in Brazil** (with [Pedro Bessone](http://economics.mit.edu/grad/bessone.tepedino) and Lisa Ho) - Last Updated: April 2021 - [PDF](/files/papers/Bessone, Dahis, and Ho (2021) The Impact of 3G Mobile Internet on Educational Outcomes in Brazil.pdf){:target="_blank"} - _Under Review_
What is the impact of mobile broadband internet on children's test scores? We compare standardized test scores before and after the staggered entry of 3G into Brazil's 5,570 municipalities using a heterogeneity-robust event-study design. We find no effects of mobile internet on test scores for 5th or 9th grade students, and can reject effect sizes of 0.04 standard deviations in both math and Portuguese. Taken together, our results indicate that the arrival of high-speed mobile internet is not suf- ficient to improve educational outcomes either through direct take-up by individuals or through broader changes to the economy.
**Value of a Statistical Life Under Large Mortality Risk Change: Theory and an Application to COVID-19** (with [Diego S. Cardoso](https://www.diegoscardoso.com/){:target="_blank"}) - Last Updated: August 2020 - [PDF](/files/papers/CD_VSL.pdf){:target="_blank"}, [SSRN](https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3599529){:target="_blank"} - Coverage: [CNN Brasil](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/nacional/2020/04/22/quarentena-intensiva-traria-beneficio-de-r-298-bi-por-mes-ao-pais-diz-pesquisa){:target="_blank"}, [Instituto Mercado Popular](https://mercadopopular.org/economia/os-beneficios-economicos-do-distanciamento-social/){:target="_blank"} - _Submitted_
Benefit analyses of mortality reduction policies typically use multiples of the value of a statistical life (VSL). This approach approximates risk premia for small changes in mortality, but inaccurately characterizes premia for large risk changes because it implies increasing marginal utility and a risk-loving attitude. We propose a method to calculate the benefits of large mortality reductions adjusting for risk aversion. We apply this method to calculate the benefits of social distancing and other mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 in the US and 42 other countries. Our findings show that the typical approach underestimates the benefits of social distancing in the US by a factor of 4.1 and in other countries by a factor of 2.2 on average.
Promotions, Performance, and Diversity in the Brazilian Judiciary (with Laura Schiavon{:target="_blank"} and Thiago Scot{:target="_blank"})
**Killing the Forest: Assassinations and Deforestation in Brazil** (with [Mariana Carvalho](https://www.maricarvalho.com/) and [Thiago Ventura](https://tiagoventura.rbind.io/))
**Family Concentration in Public and Private Organizations**
**Genocide and the Demand for Formal Institutions: Evidence from the Legacy of the Khmer Rouge** (with [Dennis Egger](https://www.dennisegger.net/) and [Joris Mueller](https://www.jorismueller.com/))
The Cambodian genocide under the Khmer Rouge regime is remembered as one of the worst human tragedies of the 20th century. This paper examines the social and institutional legacies of this violent episode. We document that spatially more intense violence committed by the Khmer Rouge, proxied by exogenous adverse rainfall shocks during 1975–1977, is associated with a higher fraction of land covered by government-backed land titles in Cambodia today. We provide micro-level empirical evidence that social capital may play a role in explaining this result: Communities that experienced more violence had more of their social capital destroyed, increasing the demand for formal titles. We conclude that social capital may serve as a substitute for formal institutions in a context of weak state capacity. We complement our analysis by discussing several alternative mechanisms.