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fix(route): ABC News #13482
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Oct 8, 2023
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<title><![CDATA[Israelis describe 'nightmare' as Hamas gunmen take hostages at music festival and roam the streets]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Stunned Israelis have described seeing bodies in the streets and Hamas fighters roaming outside their homes as they took shelter during an unprecedented attack by the militant group in southern Israel on Saturday.</p><p><strong>WARNING: This story contains images and details some people may find distressing.</strong></p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>Hamas militants attacked settlements in southern Israel for hours on Saturday, taking civilian hostages back to Gaza</li><li><span></span>Thousands of Israelis attending a music festival near Re'im also came under fire, with many killed and some taken captive</li><li><span></span>Hamas says the attack was a response to Israel's continued occupation of the Palestinian territories</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Even the residents of communities near the Gaza Strip, who have grown used to the wail of air-raid sirens, described <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-07/israel-targets-hamas-military-operation-rocket-attacks/102947766">Saturday's ground assault</a> — with militants entering their communities in pick-up trucks, on boats, and by hang-gliders — as a "nightmare" come true.</p><p>Jehan Berman, a 42-year-old man living in the small community of Avshalom near Gaza, said it took eight hours for the Israeli military to arrive in his settlement and start fending off Hamas fighters.</p><div><p>"This was always the nightmare. We told ourselves that one day, the terrorists will come inside here," he said.</p></div><p>Hamas's surprise attack came after weeks of heightened tensions along the Gaza border, and heavy fighting in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.</p><p>Salah Arouri, an exiled Hamas leader, said the attack was a response to "the crimes of the occupation", including Israeli incursions at the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and the thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.</p><h2>Thousands attacked at music festival</h2><p>A desert rave attended by thousands of Israelis came under attack by Hamas militants who had crossed the border.</p><p>Witnesses told Israeli media that the militants sprayed bullets into the crowd of revellers, who just moments earlier had been dancing at the Nova Festival near the Israeli kibbutz, or settlement, of Re'im.</p><p>"The music stopped and there was a rocket siren," a young woman named Ortal told Israel's N12 News.</p><div><p>"Suddenly, out of nowhere, they started shooting."</p></div><p>Footage posted on social media showed dozens of people running through fields and along a road, escaping militants as gun shots were heard.</p><p>Another video posted to social media showed a couple who attended the festival being captured by militants.</p><p>The man, <a href="https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/378048">identified by his brother as Avinatan Or</a>, is shown being led away on foot by men as his partner, Noa Argamani, is driven away by two men on a motorbike. </p><p>She screams and reaches toward her partner as she is driven away.</p><p>Esther Borochov, who fled the outdoor festival, told Reuters she survived by playing dead in a car after the driver, who had been trying to help her escape, was shot point blank.</p><p>"I couldn't move my legs," she said from hospital.</p><p>"Soldiers came and took us away to the bushes."</p><h2>Footage shows captives taken into Gaza</h2><p>Palestinian militant groups circulated footage on social media showing what they said were captured Israeli soldiers and civilians being driven into Gaza, as well as hostages being held by more fighters inside Israel.</p><p>One video shows a young Israeli woman stumbling out of the boot of a black Jeep, bleeding from the head and with her hands tied behind her back.</p><p>A man waving a gun in the air grabs her by the hair and pushes her into the vehicle's back seat.</p><p>One Associated Press photo shows an abducted elderly Israeli woman being driven into Gaza on a golf cart by Hamas gunmen.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/d340dad8c057916133d470c0b8d655f4" alt="Palestinian militants drive a captured Israeli civilian into the Gaza Strip on Saturday.(AP: Hatem Ali)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Palestinian militants drive a captured Israeli civilian into the Gaza Strip on Saturday.(AP: Hatem Ali)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another shows a woman squeezed between two fighters on a motorcycle.</p><p>AP journalists witnessed four people being taken from the kibbutz of Kfar Aza, including two women.</p><h2>Fighting continued throughout the day</h2><p>In the southern Israeli town of Sderot, one resident reported seeing multiple bodies and bullet-scarred vehicles where groups of Hamas gunmen were still fighting Israeli troops on Saturday afternoon.</p><p>"I went out, I saw loads of bodies of terrorists, civilians, cars shot up. A sea of bodies, inside Sderot along the road, other places, loads of bodies," the resident said.</p><p>Israel's ambulance service said its crews were unable to reach the wounded in towns where fighting was ongoing.</p><p>An ambulance was also attacked, the Magen David Adom medical service said. One crew member was reportedly killed.</p><p>Israeli TV stations carried telephone calls from terrified residents of towns and kibbutz, speaking even as gunmen were trying to break into their shelters.</p><p>A woman identified as Ella said she had barricaded herself in a bomb shelter for hours in the Be'eri kibbutz, where there were reports of 50 Israelis being held hostage by Hamas.</p><p>"We can hear a lot of gunfire, we were told that terrorists are in the dining hall, we can hear a lot of shooting," she told N12 News in a live interview.</p><div><p>"I've lost contact with my family. I know my father has been kidnapped … no-one is telling us what's going on. I don't know if my mother is alive."</p></div><p>In the kibbutz of Nahal Oz, just four kilometres from the Gaza Strip, terrified residents huddling indoors could hear constant gunfire echoing off buildings as firefights continued.</p><p>"With rockets we somehow feel safer, knowing that we have the Iron Dome [missile defence system] and our safe rooms," said Mirjam Reijnen, a 42-year-old volunteer firefighter and mother of three.</p><p>"But knowing that terrorists are walking around communities is a different kind of fear."</p><p><strong>Wires/ABC</strong></p></div>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 12:39:43 GMT</pubDate>
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<title><![CDATA[Dead woman found inside house in Sydney's south, after dead man found in truck parked in driveway]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The bodies of a man and a woman have been found at a home in Sydney's south on Sunday.</p><p>NSW Police were called to the Union Street property in Riverwood just before 2pm, where they found the body of a man in a truck parked in the driveway.</p><p>Officers found the body of the woman after they entered the single-level home.</p><p>Footage from the scene shows the house cordoned off with police tape, as officers and detectives speak to neighbours.</p><p>Forensic specialists can also be seen indoors, with yellow evidence bags placed on the ground. </p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/9264e73d4ab47e7c4b8dea998642d116" alt="Forensic officers attended the scene at Union Street.(ABC News: Tony Ibrahim)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Forensic officers attended the scene at Union Street.(ABC News: Tony Ibrahim)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jack, who lives across the road, told the ABC he had never spoken to the man and woman, but the situation was very sad.</p><p>"It's very tragic, we see each other but not much talking. He's a truck driver and always came back very late," he said.</p><p>"I don't know what happened, maybe family problems."</p><p>Police say they are investigating whether the incident is domestic-violence related.</p><p>St George detectives along with State Crime Command's Homicide Squad are investigating, and urge anyone with information to call Crime Stoppers.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 08:35:37 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949518</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nsw-police-find-two-bodies-man-and-woman-at-riverwood/102949518</link>
<author><![CDATA[Tony Ibrahim]]></author>
<category>homicide squad</category>
<category>nsw police</category>
<category>domestic-violence</category>
<category>sydney's south</category>
<category>driveway</category>
<category>St George detectives</category>
<category>State Crime Command's Homicide Squad</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Fraser-McGurk breaks world record in domestic one-day cup match]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>South Australia's Jake Fraser-McGurk has set a world record for the fastest century in a 50-over cricket match, but it was not enough to stop Tasmania defeating the Redbacks by 37 runs in the domestic one-day cup.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>Fraser-McGurk took just 29 balls to reach his century</li><li><span></span>The previous world record was held by South African great AB de Villiers</li><li><span></span>He eventually made 125 in the Redbacks' loss</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>After being sent in to bat at Karen Rolton Oval on Sunday, the Tigers broke the competition record for largest total, with captain Jordan Silk contributing 116 runs of their 9-435.</p><p>Tasmania's effort was 15 runs greater than the 420 South Australia managed against the Cricket Australia XI in 2016.</p><p>But a hot start from Fraser-McGurk put the Redbacks in position to make history themselves.</p><p>Despite never having scored a century in any form before Sunday, Fraser-McGurk only needed 29 balls to reach triple figures, two fewer than South African great AB de Villiers in an ODI in 2015.</p><p>The next-fastest ton by an Australian in a domestic one-day match, scored by Luke Ronchi, was 22 deliveries slower.</p><p>In total, the 21-year-old smacked 23 boundaries, 13 of which were sixes. Prior to Sunday, he had only hit 18 sixes in the 49 matches of his professional career.</p><p>Fraser-McGurk's formidable innings finally came to an end on 125 when he hit Beau Webster's off-spin to mid-wicket and was caught by Jake Weatherald.</p><p>Without him, the Redbacks were never able to fully take advantage of the flat Adelaide deck.</p><p>All-rounder Mitchell Owen was the pick of the bowlers for Tasmania, taking 3-46 including Daniel Drew (52) and Jake Lehmann (35) before they could truly kick on.</p><p>The Redbacks were all out for 398 in the 47th over, which was still the fifth-highest total in domestic one-day cup history and the largest one not to win.</p><p>Earlier, Silk helped steady Tasmania's ship after the loss of openers Caleb Jewell (90) and Weatherald (35) in the space of two overs.</p><p>The 31-year-old showed his maturity by moving slowly through the nervous 90s before launching into party mode after passing triple figures.</p><p>His innings came to a halt in the 45th over, when he attempted to slog McAndrew for a 15th boundary but was caught by Ben Manenti at deep midwicket.</p><p>Silk's century was his first in 57 List A matches.</p><p>The result comes after the Tigers dropped their first two matches and sat bottom of the ladder and leaves the Redbacks chasing their first 50-over win of the summer.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 08:10:39 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949484</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/cricket-jake-fraser-mcgurk-hits-record-breaking-century/102949484</link>
<category>jake fraser-mcgurk</category>
<category>record</category>
<category>world</category>
<category>century</category>
<category>29 balls</category>
<category>ab de villiers</category>
<category>list a</category>
<category>tasmania</category>
<category>tigers</category>
<category>south australia</category>
<category>redbacks</category>
<category>one-day cup</category>
<category>adelaide</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[World Cup live: Australian middle order collapse leaves them on brink against India]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Australia kicks off its 2023 World Cup campaign with a tough clash against host nation India.</p><p>Check out the live scores and stats below.</p><div></div><h2>Scorecard</h2><div></div><h2>Manhattan</h2><div></div><h2>Ball-by-ball</h2><div></div></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:59:58 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102938010</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/cricket-world-cup-australia-india-scorecentre/102938010</link>
<category>cricket</category>
<category>world cup</category>
<category>australia</category>
<category>india</category>
<category>cwc</category>
<category>50-over</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Collingwood star requests AFL trade to Sydney Swans]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Sydney's bid to bounce back into AFL premiership contention is set to kick up a gear during the trade period as experienced midfielder Taylor Adams seeks a move north.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>The Magpies confirmed Adams's request on Sunday afternoon</li><li><span></span>They describe Adams as a "required player and leader"</li><li><span></span>Adams missed the grand final due to injury</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Adams has made his bombshell trade request official, informing Collingwood he wants to take up a multi-year deal with the Swans.</p><p>The 30-year-old could link up with former Magpies teammate Brodie Grundy in Sydney, with the ruckman poised to join his third club in three years.</p><p>It comes after Melbourne's experiment using Grundy and Max Gawn as ruck partners fell flat this year.</p><p>The Swans have also lured premiership players James Jordon and Joel Hamling, from Melbourne and Fremantle respectively, as free agents.</p><p>But they face a fight with Collingwood over the contracted Adams, who has one year left on his existing deal.</p><p>The Magpies confirmed Adams's trade request in a statement on Sunday, declaring him "a required player and leader".</p><p>"The club will discuss the request with Sydney," the statement read.</p><p>Adams missed Collingwood's grand-final win because of an untimely hamstring injury.</p><p>He has played 175 matches for the Magpies, winning their best-and-fairest award during his 2020 All-Australian campaign.</p><p>Adams started his senior career with 31 matches at GWS.</p><p>His potential move to Sydney shapes as the most high-profile switch of the trade period, which runs from October 9-18, after Melbourne declared Clayton Oliver would not be traded.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:25:47 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949462</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/afl-trade-collingwood-taylor-adams-sydney-swans/102949462</link>
<category>taylor adams</category>
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</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[More than 5,000 people have hotel quarantine debt taken from bank account, as NSW premier defends move]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The New South Wales Premier has defended the state's revenue collecting agency withdrawing millions in unpaid hotel quarantine fees from people's bank accounts.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>More than 17,000 people have not paid their hotel quarantine bill</li><li><span></span>The government is owed almost $40 million in unpaid fees</li><li><span></span>Revenue NSW said it attempts to notify people when they have outstanding debts</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Revenue NSW is still chasing the $3,000 fee from more than 17,000 people who have not paid.</p><p>And it has issued more than 5,000 "garnishee orders" to debtors' bank accounts in an attempt to claw back the almost $40 million in outstanding hotel quarantine fees.</p><p>NSW took the bulk of international travellers returning to the country into its hotel quarantine system, which started in March 2020 and was initially free of charge until July 2020.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/67c51bd0b67fb2cbec603ae209dee7dc" alt="The premier said people with overdue fees were warned many times to pay.(ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>The premier said people with overdue fees were warned many times to pay.(ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Premier Chris Minns said people had been warned for "years and years" to pay their bill, and the government needed the money to pay for essential services.</p><p>"Those people were warned many times," Mr Minns said.</p><p>"The system was put in place so that we could allow people to come back into Australia in extremely difficult circumstances, and the quarantine payment issue could be sorted at a later date.</p><p>"Well, that date is today, and unfortunately the government needs that money to run essential services in the state."</p><h2>'Seems like an overreach'</h2><p>Former Victorian resident Justin De Vries said Revenue NSW took $3,000 from his bank account about three weeks ago.</p><p>"It seems like an overreach. You could say it's creepy," Mr De Vries said.</p><p>"I saw several thousand dollars out of my bank account, that's how I knew.</p><div><p>"Perhaps I missed an email, I don't believe I've been contacted. There was no phone call."</p></div>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/481650153c06bf312a8b85b1ae5de205" alt="Mr De Vries returned to Australia in January 2021 and stayed at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney during his isolation period.(ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Mr De Vries returned to Australia in January 2021 and stayed at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney during his isolation period.(ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mr De Vries said he returned from Europe to Australia in January 2021 for "personal reasons" and is now back living in Europe.</p><p>He admitted he had been avoiding the fee, because his two-week isolation at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney was "mistreatment" and the food provided was not hotel standard.</p><p>"It was actually inedible. I begged them to stop giving me bread because I can't eat bread,' he said.</p><p>"I actually quit being vegetarian to be able to eat edible food. It was all mistreatment from beginning to end."</p><p>Mr Minns said people whose accounts had been garnished would have been contacted before the money was taken.</p><div><p>"I've been assured that they had been warned quite a few times, in fact, numerous times before the money is effectively garnished."</p></div><p>A spokesman for Revenue NSW said in a statement it "always attempts communication with the customer to notify them" that an outstanding fee had not been paid.</p><p>"When checking in to a quarantine hotel, individuals were asked to provide contact details," the statement said.</p><p>"They were given a written notice informing them of the requirement to pay quarantine fees. Revenue NSW used these details to pursue payment."</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:24:07 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949138</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nsw-premier-defends-garnishee-orders-hotel-quarantine-debts/102949138</link>
<author><![CDATA[Isobel Roe]]></author>
<category>revenue nsw</category>
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<category>chris minns</category>
<category>unpaid bills</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Light plane crash at Merriton in regional SA with two people on board]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>A light aircraft has crashed in South Australia's mid-north with two men on board. </p><p>South Australia Police said emergency services were called to Mumfords Road at Merriton just after 4pm this afternoon following reports a plane had crashed into a field. </p><p>They said two men on board suffered significant burns. </p><p>The incident is not connected to the Jamestown Air Spectacular which was on today. </p><p>Major crash investigators are attending the scene. </p><p>Police are urging the public to avoid the area if possible as there are road closures in place. </p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/19f72bdc816b4d94370ea2a27374c292" alt="Fire from the crash burned through a paddock. (ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Fire from the crash burned through a paddock. (ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 06:48:58 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949430</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/sa-merriton-light-plane-crash/102949430</link>
<category>merriton</category>
<category>crash</category>
<category>light plane</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Woman killed, man seriously injured after tree branch falls at Darwin Botanic Gardens]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>A woman has been killed and a man seriously injured after a tree branch fell onto them at Darwin's Botanic Gardens, Northern Territory Police say.</p><p>Authorities closed all entrances to the popular spot, located just north of the Darwin CBD, following the incident.</p><p>Emergency services were called to the scene by a person in the park shortly before 1pm Sunday.</p><p>In a statement released later in the afternoon, NT Police confirmed paramedics had declared a 28-year-old woman dead.</p><p>They said a 33-year-old man suffered serious injuries and had been taken to the Royal Darwin Hospital.</p><p>NT Police were urging the public to avoid the area.</p><p>Multiple police units remained at the Botanic Gardens on Sunday afternoon.</p><p>In a post to social media, Northern Territory Parks and Wildlife said the Botanic Gardens, including the cafe and visitor information centre, would be "closed until further notice".</p><p>It asked people to follow the directions of emergency services.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 06:06:44 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949374</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nt-person-killed-after-tree-falls-at-darwin-botanic-gardens/102949374</link>
<author><![CDATA[Thomas Morgan]]></author>
<category>nt</category>
<category>darwin botanic gardens</category>
<category>tree</category>
<category>death</category>
<category>nt police</category>
<category>police</category>
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<category>ambulance</category>
<category>st john</category>
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<item>
<title><![CDATA[Naked rower going for world record was saved by a cruise ship, heading home to Queensland]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The Brisbane extreme rower who capsized and was rescued by a cruise ship — prematurely ending his year-long world record attempt — will be back on Aussie soil soon.</p><p>Tom Robinson was in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-28/tom-robinson-rowing-rom-vanuatu-pacific-ocean/102914698">the final, "make-or-break leg" of his massive journey</a> when his rowboat was damaged by "a rouge wave" and he was left clinging naked to the hull of the vessel he built.</p><p>The 24-year-old had been attempting to break the record to become the youngest person to row across the Pacific Ocean, leaving Peru almost a year-and-a-half ago and only stopping in the Cook Islands for four months during cyclone season.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/bf0893d277957efdb6d58d68f0292977" alt="A cruise ship rescued Tom Robinson after his boat capsized in the Pacific Ocean.(Supplied)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>A cruise ship rescued Tom Robinson after his boat capsized in the Pacific Ocean.(Supplied)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>"A big wave came out of nowhere and unfortunately I didn't have the hatch closed to the cabin," he <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/holding-on-for-dear-life-aussie-ocean-rower-rescued-by-cruise-ship-describes-shivering-14-hours-stuck-at-sea/2AVGT4WCIVDTDAQTHSGN7RVC6U/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">told the NZ Herald</a>. </p><div><p>"I was sitting inside … so instantly I had to swim out from the flooded cabin, climb on top of the hull, and I activated my [satellite] phone which sent out a distress signal.</p></div><p>"It was really cold and I tied myself on … to the boat and that really helped me because waves were breaking over the boat constantly and I was just sort of holding on for dear life.</p><p>"I held on to the boat for about 14 hours and then … I saw the cruise ship approaching and I knew that I was saved."</p><p>P&O's Pacific Explorer was on a nine-day round-trip from Auckland, with 2,000 passengers aboard, when it received word of the distress beacon from the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.</p><p>The cruise liner made a 200-kilometre detour to pick up the stranded Queenslander.</p><p>Tom has expressed his thanks to the crew and on-board medical staff for their kindness and providing him with clothes and food. </p><div><p>"I didn't have any clothes on when the wave hit the boat — I usually row naked because it stops chafing," he said. </p></div><p>The young explorer said he "was surprisingly calm and collected" during the ordeal, maintaining "the utmost faith that help would arrive". </p><p>"You can't let any doubts creep in because then that becomes a really bad headspace to be in," Tom said. </p><p>"From when I was 14 onwards, I've been dreaming about this journey … and I didn't quite complete it. </p><p>"But that's okay, that's life."</p><h2>'Comedy in the tragedy'</h2><p>Dad Tim Robinson said, while his son "couldn't have been more terrified" as his cabin flooded, the family are now relaxed enough to find the "comedy in the tragedy". </p><div><p>"He had to climb up to the deck of the ship on a rope ladder with nothing on," he said.</p></div><p>"What a way to get rescued, in the nude."</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/56563cf6c356894b3ce17fb338ff2caf" alt="Tom after his arrival in Vanuatu, prior to the rescue.(Supplied)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Tom after his arrival in Vanuatu, prior to the rescue.(Supplied)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tim doesn't think the close call will dampen his son's excitement about exploring the world. </p><p>"A lot of the time it's stressful [watching Tom's travels], but particularly when this sort of event happens," he said.</p><p>"I've just got to say that everybody has been just so wonderful in helping us and helping Tom.</p><div><p>"[He'll] be thinking about the next adventure, don't worry."</p></div><p>Meanwhile mum is preparing a nice, home-cooked dinner to welcome Tom back.</p><h2>What's next for the rower?</h2><p>Tom said his days aboard the cruise ship made for "a very surreal experience" in comparison to rowing — saying he would make the most of it by eating and sleeping as much as possible — but admitted he felt "very bad" for causing the passengers to go off-course for his rescue.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/55b1134e98214c3b371adfad351ee224" alt="Tom with the crew onboard the P&O Cruises vessel." referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Tom with the crew onboard the P&O Cruises vessel.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>"It is a real shame that my life was in danger and I had to put other people out … I'm not proud of that at all," he said.</p><div><p>"I'd just like to say a huge thank you to all the crew on P&O Pacific Explorer whose seamanship and professionalism ensured a safe rescue.</p></div><p>"People from all around the world have really been interested in what I'm doing.</p><p>"I'll get back to Brisbane and take stock of it all and hopefully write a book about it. </p><div><p>"Perhaps one day I'll build another boat and I'll take it to Vanuatu [to] finish that last leg."</p></div></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 05:39:15 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949210</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/tom-robinson-arriving-back-row-boat-flipped-pacific-ocean-rescue/102949210</link>
<author><![CDATA[Gemma Ferguson/Michelle Tapper]]></author>
<category>qld</category>
<category>row boat</category>
<category>boat capsized</category>
<category>Tom Robinson</category>
<category>P&O cruise ship</category>
<category>rescue</category>
<category>world record attempt</category>
<category>sea voyage</category>
<category>Pacific Explorer</category>
<category>Pacific Ocean</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Suns sink Tigers with dramatic after-the-siren-behind as Kangaroos, Bombers score wins]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Gold Coast skipper Tara Bohanna has kicked the winning behind from long range after the final siren to lift the Suns to a dramatic one-point AFLW victory over Richmond.</p><p>The Suns were goalless at quarter-time and trailed by seven points at the long break but came home strongest to win 5.6 (35) to 5.5 (35) at and stay in the top eight.</p><p>The hero was Bohanna, who marked in the dying seconds with scores level at Princes Park and was able to slot a crucial minor score.</p><p>Charlie Rowbottom (31 disposals, five clearances) and Claudia Whitford (25, six) were the shining lights for Gold Coast, while Lucy Single did a successful tagging job on Richmond star Monique Conti (22 possessions).</p><p>Vivien Saad also stood up in defence for the Suns, collecting a match-high nine intercept possessions, including a spectacular flying mark against Tigers captain Katie Brennan.</p><p>Prized Tigers recruit Caitlin Greiser kicked the opening goal of the match after the quarter-time siren.</p><p>Former Sun Courtney Jones struck first to kickstart the second quarter before shoving former teammate Daisy D'arcy to spark a skirmish between the two sides.</p><div></div><p>Needing to return to Melbourne to be close to her younger sister who was diagnosed with thyroid cancer, Jones was traded in a straight swap for Maddy Brancatisano in the offseason.</p><p>Shannon Danckert also faced her former side after being delisted by the Suns last season, with Richmond forced to name the train-on player for the match amid a growing injury crisis.</p><p>Just five points separated the two sides at three-quarter time after back-to-back goals from Alana Gee and Georgia Clayden flipped the script on the Tigers.</p><p>The arm wrestle continued well into the fourth term with both sides lacking composure in front of goal.</p><p>Danckert grabbed a mark just in front of goal to rip the lead back for the Tigers but a rushed behind for the Suns quickly levelled scores before Bohanna sealed the win.</p><h2>Kangaroos climb ladder</h2>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/fed00fd44a62a09a79c48d594b1355a1" alt="Alice O'Loughlin celebrates a goal during the Kangaroos' defeat of the Dockers.(Getty Images: Paul Kane)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Alice O'Loughlin celebrates a goal during the Kangaroos' defeat of the Dockers.(Getty Images: Paul Kane)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ball magnets Ash Riddell and Jasmine Garner fired the Kangaroos into second spot on the ladder with starring roles in a 45-point belting of Fremantle.</p><p>Riddell (37 disposals, six clearances) and Garner (30, three) were dominant figures in the midfield throughout the Kangaroos' 10.6 (66) to 3.3 (21) victory at Fremantle Oval.</p><p>Jenna Bruton (27, four) and Mia King (21, six) also shone, while Tahlia Randall (five goals) and Kate Shierlaw (two) benefited from their teammates' control around the contest.</p><p>Bruton became the 16th player in AFLW history to reach 1,000 career disposals and matched King with a match-high 11 tackles.</p><p>It was a disappointing result for Fremantle, who would have moved into the top eight with a win.</p><p>Defender Emma O'Driscoll (28 disposals) was the Dockers' best in a losing cause, as the home side managed just 0.2 to North's 6.1 after half-time.</p><div></div><p>Aine Tighe gave Fremantle a great start with the opening goal inside two minutes but the Kangaroos controlled proceedings throughout the first half.</p><p>The visitors dominated inside-50s (25-10) and disposals (149-118) to half-time and would have led by more than 10 points if not for wasteful kicking at times in front of goal.</p><p>Shierlaw and Randall led the way with two majors each to that point as Riddell (20 disposals), Garner (19) and Bruton (16) ran amok in the midfield.</p><p>Randall's third goal and another from Tess Craven increased the Kangaroos' lead to 22 points by the final change, with the Dockers held scoreless in the third quarter.</p><p>It got ugly in the last quarter as Shierlaw assisted Randall's fourth goal and blew the margin out to 27 points.</p><p>Randall completed the rout with her fifth major on the final siren.</p><h2>Bombers trump Cats</h2>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/91d638a853ab8bc9970b67a2542772ba" alt="Maddy Prespakis (right) played a key role in the Bombers' defeat of the Cats.(Getty Images/AFL Photos: Graham Denholm)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Maddy Prespakis (right) played a key role in the Bombers' defeat of the Cats.(Getty Images/AFL Photos: Graham Denholm)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Essendon pulled off a sensational come-from-behind win over Geelong, triumphing by 10 points to move itself inside the top eight.</p><p>Left with a sour taste in their mouths after a 20-point loss to Collingwood last round, the Bombers overcame a scoreless start to win 4.5 (29) to 2.7 (19) against the Cats at Warrnambool's Reid Oval on Sunday.</p><p>The sixth-round win provided Essendon midfield star Maddy Prespakis with family bragging rights over younger sister Georgie in their second AFLW match-up.</p><p>Maddy Prespakis also celebrated her 50th match in style with 33 disposals and six clearances as she arm-wrestled her sister (26, 10) for dominance in the midfield.</p><p>The younger Prespakis, in her 25th AFLW appearance, kicked the first goal of the afternoon but was denied by the umpires who argued — without a score review system — the ball was touched.</p><div></div><p>The ever-prolific Chloe Scheer broke through twice to give the Cats a 14-point lead while the hosts were scoreless by quarter-time.</p><p>A desperate Essendon went to work in the second quarter, leading contested possessions 14 to four for the term and generating three of the first four inside-50s.</p><p>With a minute left on the clock and only three behinds on the scoreboard, Amber Clarke snapped the ball towards goal.</p><p>As the ball looked sure to spray across the face, it miraculously bounced backward to slot through the posts and give the Bombers a much-needed six points.</p><p>Bombers co-captain Bonnie Toogood cut the margin to one point to kickstart the second half and bring herself within three goals of 50 career majors.</p><p>With scores level at three quarter-time, Georgia Nanscawen (24 disposals, six clearances) worked diligently to put the ball back in the hands of the Bombers.</p><p>Daria Bannister kicked truly to put Essendon in the lead and was backed by another from Clarke to seal the win.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:41:31 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949268</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/aflw-suns-tigers-bombers-cats-kangaroos-dockers/102949268</link>
<category>essendon</category>
<category>bombers</category>
<category>aflw</category>
<category>geelong</category>
<category>cats</category>
<category>kangaroos</category>
<category>fremantle</category>
<category>dockers</category>
<category>richmond</category>
<category>tigers</category>
<category>gold coast</category>
<category>suns</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Federal government makes new shingles vaccine free for older Australians from November 1]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Older and immunocompromised Australians will be given free access to a new, more effective shingles vaccine from next month. </p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>A new shingles vaccine will be free for older Australians and immunocompromised people from November 1 </li><li><span></span>The jab is more effective than the shingles vaccine currently available on the National Immunisation Program </li><li><span></span>The risk of developing shingles increases with age </li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Nearly five million people will be eligible for the vaccination from November 1, including those aged 65 years and over, First Nations people aged 50 years and over and immunocompromised people aged 18 years and over who are at high risk of catching the shingles virus. </p><p>Shingles, which is also known as herpes zoster, is caused by the reactivation of the same virus that causes chickenpox and presents as a painful, blistering rash on one side of the face or body. </p><p>The virus usually lasts 10 to 15 days but one in five people will develop long-term nerve pain known as post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), which can last for months or even years after the rash has gone away. </p><p>According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare one in three people will develop shingles at some point in their life, with the risk of catching the virus increasing with age, becoming most common in those aged 60 and older. </p><p>Minister for Health and Aged Care Mark Butler said the federal government was investing $826.8 million to provide the Shingrix vaccine under the National Immunisation Program (NIP). </p><p>"I'm told by hospital operators that increasingly there are presentations by older Australians to hospital because of complications driven by shingles," Mr Butler said. </p><p>"This is a very serious public health menace that we can front in Australia. </p><p>"This investment will ensure nearly five million Australians can get free protection from shingles and the very painful nerve damage that it causes."</p>
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<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/bdabfb326fc1e564bd2dfcf86eca8a75" alt="Mark Butler says the new vaccine is more effective than the one currently available on the National Immunisation Program. (ABC News. )" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Mark Butler says the new vaccine is more effective than the one currently available on the National Immunisation Program. (ABC News. )</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Shingrix vaccine will replace the Zostavax vaccine on the NIP following advice from the independent medicines experts at the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee and the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation. </p><p>Mr Butler said the currently available Zostavax vaccine was "only moderately effective". </p><p>"[Shingrix] is much more effective, about 90 per cent effective in older Australians in preventing shingles against 40 per cent for older Australians with the existing vaccine and is also much longer-lasting," he said. </p><p>"Shingles can be severe, so it's really important that eligible people talk to their GP or pharmacist about getting the shingles vaccine." </p><p>Senior Clinical Immunologist at the Royal Adelaide Hospital Pravin Hissaria urged those eligible to talk to their GP or health practitioner about getting the vaccine as soon as possible. </p><p>"The uptake should be a lot higher because it does not have lots of precautions that needed to be taken with the previously available vaccine," he said. </p><p>"It is to be taken in two doses, preferably two months apart but it can be taken from two to six months apart." </p><p>The Shingrix vaccine, which would otherwise cost up to $560, provides about 10 years of protection against shingles.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:35:02 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949012</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/sa-free-shingles-vaccinations-for-older-australians/102949012</link>
<author><![CDATA[Rebecca Opie]]></author>
<category>shingles</category>
<category>vaccine</category>
<category>nip</category>
<category>national immunisation program</category>
<category>shingrix</category>
<category>zostavax</category>
<category>mark butler</category>
<category>chicken pox</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[How Israel was blindsided by the Hamas attack: the intelligence failure that led to a devastating assault]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>After the Hamas fighters inside Israel have been caught or killed, after the inevitable Israeli ground assault into Gaza, and after the funerals of many Israelis and Palestinians who die in this conflict, there will be another wave of bloodletting.</p><p>It will involve the careers of the intelligence and military officials whose networks failed completely to detect a hint of this attack.</p><p>This was a complex assault, involving scores, if not hundreds, of militants.</p><p>There were multiple breaches of the barrier around the Gaza strip. It was a carefully coordinated operation involving thousands of rockets, explosives to pierce the border fence, ultralights, motorbikes, cars, drones and even a (failed) attack by boat.</p><p>And Israel had no idea that any of it was coming. If it had, the Israeli military would have been prepared. Its soldiers would have been on alert. There would have been checkpoints on the roads. Rapid response forces would have been ready to take on the attackers.</p><p>Instead, the attack early on a Saturday morning caught the military and civilians alike by surprise, at border outposts, at the towns closest to Gaza, on the roads and at an all-night music festival attended by thousands of young Israelis.</p><p>Camera-phone footage shows armed Hamas fighters moving unimpeded inside Israeli military bases, on roads in southern Israel, around Israeli towns, entering homes and bringing hostages back into Gaza.</p><p>Initial reports say they entered as many as 22 separate locations, unchallenged in some cases for six hours. Fighting continued in some places for at least 12 hours after the initial assaults.</p><p>The military's unpreparedness and chaotic response seems to be highlighted by the footage of a lone tank crew being taken hostage: where was the infantry that should have been supporting the armour? Had the crew become isolated from its support, or had it gone out on its own?</p><p>Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth: 2 million people squeezed into a space the size of a handful of suburbs in Sydney's east. It's also one of the most-heavily monitored, constantly watched by satellites and drones and Israeli agents and sources on the ground.</p><p>In such a place, it's extraordinary that not a hint of the planning for this operation was picked up.</p><p>This is a catastrophe for Israel: 300 of its citizens have been killed in the first 24 hours, with more than 1,500 injured. That's the deadliest day for Israel in at least 50 years, ranking with the worst moments of the 1967 Six Day War.</p><p>It's also a disaster for Palestinians: already, at least 234 Palestinians have died, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Many of them are civilians and many more will likely die in the coming days.</p><p>Israel's response inside Gaza has already begun, with air strikes from Israeli jets. A major ground assault is likely, as Israeli forces attempt to bring back some of the hostages now held inside Gaza. The presence of the hostages also complicates any Israeli response: the risk of killing hostages in a rescue operation is high.</p><p>The regional consequences of the Hamas attack and the Israeli response are unknowable. As always in the Middle East, there's the potential for things to get much, much worse.</p><p>Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel is at war, and has promised swift retribution. Just as civilian deaths in Israel harden the attitude of Israelis, more deaths in Gaza will harden the attitude of the Arab world towards Israel. It will damage the tentative recent steps towards normalisation of relations.</p><p>The conflict will also slow progress towards a US-sponsored deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and could kill it.</p><p>So far, there has not been wide-spread fighting in the West Bank, home to 3 million people, occupied by Israel but controlled by the Palestinian Authority.</p><p>There is a risk that this conflict could expand across Israel's northern border: there are already reports of rocket strikes from the Iranian-backed militant group, Hezbollah, which is based in southern Lebanon.</p><p>So far, the attacks and the Israeli response has been relatively minor with no reports of injuries. That could change.</p><p>Israel is responding in force to this attack on its people. But as the fighting continues, deaths of more Palestinian civilians in Gaza will harden attitudes in the region and has the potential to make the Palestinian Authority seem irrelevant, and strengthen the hand of the extremists who lead Hamas. That was surely their aim when they began planning for this day.</p><p>Meanwhile, the blockade of Gaza tightens, with Israel already cutting off electricity, and the lives of Palestinians becomes more difficult, and dangerous.</p></div>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:12:25 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949034</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/israeli-intelligence-caught-by-surprise-hamas-attack/102949034</link>
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<author><![CDATA[Adam Harvey]]></author>
<category>hamas</category>
<category>israel</category>
<category>analysis</category>
<category>gaza</category>
<category>palestinians</category>
<category>israeli</category>
<category>gaza strip</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Is there really a 1 in 6 chance of human extinction this century?]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>In 2020, Oxford-based philosopher Toby Ord published a book called <a href="https://theprecipice.com/">The Precipice</a> about the risk of human extinction. He put the chances of "existential catastrophe" for our species during the next century at one in six.</p><p>It's quite a specific number, and an alarming one. The claim drew <a href="https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/humans-have-1-6-chance-21960557">headlines</a> at the time, and has been influential since — most recently brought up by Australian politician Andrew Leigh in a <a href="https://www.andrewleigh.com/what_s_the_worst_that_could_happen_existential_risk_and_extreme_politics_speech">speech</a> in Melbourne.</p><p>It's hard to disagree with the idea we face troubling prospects over the coming decades, from climate change, nuclear weapons and bio-engineered pathogens (all big issues in my view), to rogue AI and large asteroids (which I would see as less concerning).</p><p>But what about that number? Where does it come from? And what does it really mean?</p><h2>Coin flips and weather forecasts</h2><p>To answer those questions, we have to answer another first: what is probability?</p><p>The most traditional view of probability is called frequentism, and derives its name from its heritage in games of dice and cards. On this view, we know there is a one in six chance a fair die will come up with a three (for example) by observing the frequency of threes in a large number of rolls.</p><p>Or consider the more complicated case of weather forecasts. What does it mean when a metrologist tells us there is a one in six (or 17 per cent) chance of rain tomorrow?</p><p>It's hard to believe the metrologist means us to imagine a large collection of "tomorrows", of which some proportion will experience precipitation. Instead, we need to look at a large number of such predictions and see what happened after them.</p><p>If the forecaster is good at their job, we should see that when they said "one in six chance of rain tomorrow", it did in fact rain on the following day one time in every six.</p><p>So, traditional probability depends on observations and procedure. To calculate it, we need to have a collection of repeated events on which to base our estimate.</p><h2>Can we learn from the Moon?</h2><p>So what does this mean for the probability of human extinction? Well, such an event would be a one-off: after it happened, there would be no room for repeats.</p><p>Instead, we might find some parallel events to learn from. Indeed, in Ord's book, he discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can potentially be examined in light of a history.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/db42eb9cd3139104f2a312650de2ce51" alt="Counting craters on the Moon can give us clues about the risk of asteroid impacts on Earth. (Supplied: NASA)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Counting craters on the Moon can give us clues about the risk of asteroid impacts on Earth. (Supplied: NASA)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, we can estimate the chances of an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth by examining how many such space rocks have hit the Moon over its history. A French scientist named Jean-Marc Salotti <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328722000337">did this in 2022</a>, calculating the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century at around one in 300 million.</p><p>Of course, such an estimate is fraught with uncertainty, but it is backed by something approaching an appropriate frequency calculation. Ord, by contrast, estimates the risk of extinction by asteroid at one in a million, though he does note a considerable degree of uncertainty.</p><h2>A ranking system for outcomes</h2><p>There is another way to think about probability, called Bayesianism after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It focuses less on events themselves and more on what we know, expect and believe about them.</p><p>In very simple terms, we can say Bayesians see probabilities as a kind of ranking system. In this view, the specific number attached to a probability shouldn't be taken directly, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand which outcomes are more and less likely.</p><p>Ord's book, for example, contains a table of potential extinction events and his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these values as relative ranks. Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand), and both are far less likely than extinction from what he calls "unaligned artificial intelligence" (one in 10).</p><p>The difficulty here is that initial estimates of Bayesian probabilities (often called "priors") are rather subjective (for instance, I would rank the chance of AI-based extinction much lower). Traditional Bayesian reasoning moves from "priors" to "posteriors" by again incorporating observational evidence of relevant outcomes to "update" probability values.</p><p>And once again, outcomes relevant to the probability of human extinction are thin on the ground.</p><h2>Subjective estimates</h2><p>There are two ways to think about the accuracy and usefulness of probability calculations: calibration and discrimination.</p><p>Calibration is the correctness of the actual values of the probabilities. We can't determine this without appropriate observational information. Discrimination, on the other hand, simply refers to the relative rankings.</p><p>We don't have a basis to think Ord's values are properly calibrated. Of course, this is not likely to be his intent. He himself indicates they are mostly designed to give "order of magnitude" indications.</p><p>Even so, without any related observational confirmation, most of these estimates simply remain in the subjective domain of prior probabilities.</p><h2>Not well calibrated — but perhaps still useful</h2><p>So what are we to make of "one in six"? Experience suggests most people have a less than perfect understanding of probability (as evidenced by, among other things, the ongoing volume of lottery ticket sales). In this environment, if you're making an argument in public, an estimate of "probability" doesn't necessarily need to be well calibrated — it just needs to have the right sort of psychological impact.</p><p>From this perspective, I'd say "one in six" fits the bill nicely. "One in 100" might feel small enough to ignore, while "one in three" might drive panic or be dismissed as apocalyptic raving.</p><p>As a person concerned about the future, I hope risks like climate change and nuclear proliferation get the attention they deserve. But as a data scientist, I hope the careless use of probability gets left by the wayside and is replaced by widespread education on its true meaning and appropriate usage.</p><p><strong>Steven Stern is Professor of Data Science at Bond University. This piece first appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction-this-century-215054" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Conversation</a>.</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 03:55:14 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102942530</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction/102942530</link>
<category>extinction</category>
<category>asteroids</category>
<category>end of the world</category>
<category>human extinction</category>
<category>1 in 6 chance of extinction</category>
<category>toby Ord</category>
<category>probability</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[VCAT sides with residents to scrap hotel development on Ballarat's farming fringes]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Local residents are celebrating after authorities overturned a decision to approve a 111-room hotel on "essential" farmland at the entrance of Ballarat.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>VCAT overturns hotel proposal for farmland on the edge of Ballarat, circumventing council approval</li><li><span></span>Residents say the 'power is in the hands of the people' after self-representing at the tribunal</li><li><span></span>Local resident Kirrily Liddle says the area is protected for farming use, and needs to stay that way despite urban sprawl</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Kirrily Liddle lives 150 metres from the proposed Western Freeway hotel site project in Warrenheip, which a Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) has now rejected. </p><p>Last August, the Ballarat City Council approved the proposal to allow the major development to go ahead despite the area being mainly zoned for farm use.</p><p>Ms Liddle, who was one of the parties that took the decision to the tribunal last year, said the VCAT result was a reflection of the power of the people.</p><div><p>"I'm proud that we stuck to our guns and forced this issue – we knew that it was better to be kept as farmland," Ms Liddle said.</p></div><p>"We really wanted to protect our area from this type of development."</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/b7fa5a6d46c02ca0050eccc1348c66f2" alt="Kirrily Liddle says despite the group being unable to afford legal representation, they worked hard to present the facts for a good outcome. (Supplied: Kirrily Liddle)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Kirrily Liddle says despite the group being unable to afford legal representation, they worked hard to present the facts for a good outcome. (Supplied: Kirrily Liddle)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One section on the western side of the Warrenheip site is zoned for mixed use, but residents expressed concerns that a hotel would cause higher volumes of traffic, which would be dangerous.</p><p>"The roads are terrible, we have two really dangerous intersections," Ms Liddle said.</p><div><p>"My aim is that, any development that happens in the Warrenheip area considers the impacts. I don't want the intersection upgrade to be an afterthought."</p></div><p>The site, next to Ballarat's Mill Markets on Mahers Road, is a 5.5-hectare parcel of land sandwiched between residential properties and farmland to the east, and the ever-growing edges of Ballarat to the west.</p><p>The two-storey residential hotel was approved by council last year with a spa and function centre, a restaurant, and a gin distillery.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/6e8c226c7a502714fb23bc136caf227c" alt="Warrenheip features large potato farms, timber plantations, and livestock ranches. (ABC Ballarat: Laura Mayers)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Warrenheip features large potato farms, timber plantations, and livestock ranches. (ABC Ballarat: Laura Mayers)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Forte Developments was contacted for comment.</p><p>"The scale and intensity of the proposed land use and development is significant for this site," said senior VCAT member, Rachel Naylor.</p><div><p>"The proposal is not compatible with the surrounding land ... The proposal does have impacts on the surrounding land, including unacceptable impacts."</p></div><p>After beginning with mediation sessions 18 months ago, the group of residents fighting the proposal cited concerns about the impact on the agricultural value of the land by way of water, weeds, biosecurity and more. </p><p>Ms Liddle said the edges of the city were still flanked by "essential" farmland, which should not be lost to urban sprawl. </p><p>"The VCAT process is definitely intimidating, but it's definitely worth the process," she said.</p><div><p>" ... |
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<title><![CDATA[Israelis describe 'nightmare' as Hamas gunmen take hostages at music festival and roam the streets]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Stunned Israelis have described seeing bodies in the streets and Hamas fighters roaming outside their homes as they took shelter during an unprecedented attack by the militant group in southern Israel on Saturday.</p><p><strong>WARNING: This story contains images and details some people may find distressing.</strong></p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>Hamas militants attacked settlements in southern Israel for hours on Saturday, taking civilian hostages back to Gaza</li><li><span></span>Thousands of Israelis attending a music festival near Re'im also came under fire, with many killed and some taken captive</li><li><span></span>Hamas says the attack was a response to Israel's continued occupation of the Palestinian territories</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Even the residents of communities near the Gaza Strip, who have grown used to the wail of air-raid sirens, described <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-07/israel-targets-hamas-military-operation-rocket-attacks/102947766">Saturday's ground assault</a> — with militants entering their communities in pick-up trucks, on boats, and by hang-gliders — as a "nightmare" come true.</p><p>Jehan Berman, a 42-year-old man living in the small community of Avshalom near Gaza, said it took eight hours for the Israeli military to arrive in his settlement and start fending off Hamas fighters.</p><div><p>"This was always the nightmare. We told ourselves that one day, the terrorists will come inside here," he said.</p></div><p>Hamas's surprise attack came after weeks of heightened tensions along the Gaza border, and heavy fighting in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.</p><p>Salah Arouri, an exiled Hamas leader, said the attack was a response to "the crimes of the occupation", including Israeli incursions at the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and the thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.</p><h2>Thousands attacked at music festival</h2><p>A desert rave attended by thousands of Israelis came under attack by Hamas militants who had crossed the border.</p><p>Witnesses told Israeli media that the militants sprayed bullets into the crowd of revellers, who just moments earlier had been dancing at the Nova Festival near the Israeli kibbutz, or settlement, of Re'im.</p><p>"The music stopped and there was a rocket siren," a young woman named Ortal told Israel's N12 News.</p><div><p>"Suddenly, out of nowhere, they started shooting."</p></div><p>Footage posted on social media showed dozens of people running through fields and along a road, escaping militants as gun shots were heard.</p><p>Another video posted to social media showed a couple who attended the festival being captured by militants.</p><p>The man, <a href="https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/378048">identified by his brother as Avinatan Or</a>, is shown being led away on foot by men as his partner, Noa Argamani, is driven away by two men on a motorbike. </p><p>She screams and reaches toward her partner as she is driven away.</p><p>Esther Borochov, who fled the outdoor festival, told Reuters she survived by playing dead in a car after the driver, who had been trying to help her escape, was shot point blank.</p><p>"I couldn't move my legs," she said from hospital.</p><p>"Soldiers came and took us away to the bushes."</p><h2>Footage shows captives taken into Gaza</h2><p>Palestinian militant groups circulated footage on social media showing what they said were captured Israeli soldiers and civilians being driven into Gaza, as well as hostages being held by more fighters inside Israel.</p><p>One video shows a young Israeli woman stumbling out of the boot of a black Jeep, bleeding from the head and with her hands tied behind her back.</p><p>A man waving a gun in the air grabs her by the hair and pushes her into the vehicle's back seat.</p><p>One Associated Press photo shows an abducted elderly Israeli woman being driven into Gaza on a golf cart by Hamas gunmen.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/d340dad8c057916133d470c0b8d655f4" alt="Palestinian militants drive a captured Israeli civilian into the Gaza Strip on Saturday.(AP: Hatem Ali)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Palestinian militants drive a captured Israeli civilian into the Gaza Strip on Saturday.(AP: Hatem Ali)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another shows a woman squeezed between two fighters on a motorcycle.</p><p>AP journalists witnessed four people being taken from the kibbutz of Kfar Aza, including two women.</p><h2>Fighting continued throughout the day</h2><p>In the southern Israeli town of Sderot, one resident reported seeing multiple bodies and bullet-scarred vehicles where groups of Hamas gunmen were still fighting Israeli troops on Saturday afternoon.</p><p>"I went out, I saw loads of bodies of terrorists, civilians, cars shot up. A sea of bodies, inside Sderot along the road, other places, loads of bodies," the resident said.</p><p>Israel's ambulance service said its crews were unable to reach the wounded in towns where fighting was ongoing.</p><p>An ambulance was also attacked, the Magen David Adom medical service said. One crew member was reportedly killed.</p><p>Israeli TV stations carried telephone calls from terrified residents of towns and kibbutz, speaking even as gunmen were trying to break into their shelters.</p><p>A woman identified as Ella said she had barricaded herself in a bomb shelter for hours in the Be'eri kibbutz, where there were reports of 50 Israelis being held hostage by Hamas.</p><p>"We can hear a lot of gunfire, we were told that terrorists are in the dining hall, we can hear a lot of shooting," she told N12 News in a live interview.</p><div><p>"I've lost contact with my family. I know my father has been kidnapped … no-one is telling us what's going on. I don't know if my mother is alive."</p></div><p>In the kibbutz of Nahal Oz, just four kilometres from the Gaza Strip, terrified residents huddling indoors could hear constant gunfire echoing off buildings as firefights continued.</p><p>"With rockets we somehow feel safer, knowing that we have the Iron Dome [missile defence system] and our safe rooms," said Mirjam Reijnen, a 42-year-old volunteer firefighter and mother of three.</p><p>"But knowing that terrorists are walking around communities is a different kind of fear."</p><p><strong>Wires/ABC</strong></p></div>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 12:39:43 GMT</pubDate>
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<category>gaza</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Dead woman found inside house in Sydney's south, after dead man found in truck parked in driveway]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The bodies of a man and a woman have been found at a home in Sydney's south on Sunday.</p><p>NSW Police were called to the Union Street property in Riverwood just before 2pm, where they found the body of a man in a truck parked in the driveway.</p><p>Officers found the body of the woman after they entered the single-level home.</p><p>Footage from the scene shows the house cordoned off with police tape, as officers and detectives speak to neighbours.</p><p>Forensic specialists can also be seen indoors, with yellow evidence bags placed on the ground. </p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/9264e73d4ab47e7c4b8dea998642d116" alt="Forensic officers attended the scene at Union Street.(ABC News: Tony Ibrahim)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Forensic officers attended the scene at Union Street.(ABC News: Tony Ibrahim)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jack, who lives across the road, told the ABC he had never spoken to the man and woman, but the situation was very sad.</p><p>"It's very tragic, we see each other but not much talking. He's a truck driver and always came back very late," he said.</p><p>"I don't know what happened, maybe family problems."</p><p>Police say they are investigating whether the incident is domestic-violence related.</p><p>St George detectives along with State Crime Command's Homicide Squad are investigating, and urge anyone with information to call Crime Stoppers.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 08:35:37 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949518</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nsw-police-find-two-bodies-man-and-woman-at-riverwood/102949518</link>
<author><![CDATA[Tony Ibrahim]]></author>
<category>homicide squad</category>
<category>nsw police</category>
<category>domestic-violence</category>
<category>sydney's south</category>
<category>driveway</category>
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<item>
<title><![CDATA[Fraser-McGurk breaks world record in domestic one-day cup match]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>South Australia's Jake Fraser-McGurk has set a world record for the fastest century in a 50-over cricket match, but it was not enough to stop Tasmania defeating the Redbacks by 37 runs in the domestic one-day cup.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>Fraser-McGurk took just 29 balls to reach his century</li><li><span></span>The previous world record was held by South African great AB de Villiers</li><li><span></span>He eventually made 125 in the Redbacks' loss</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>After being sent in to bat at Karen Rolton Oval on Sunday, the Tigers broke the competition record for largest total, with captain Jordan Silk contributing 116 runs of their 9-435.</p><p>Tasmania's effort was 15 runs greater than the 420 South Australia managed against the Cricket Australia XI in 2016.</p><p>But a hot start from Fraser-McGurk put the Redbacks in position to make history themselves.</p><p>Despite never having scored a century in any form before Sunday, Fraser-McGurk only needed 29 balls to reach triple figures, two fewer than South African great AB de Villiers in an ODI in 2015.</p><p>The next-fastest ton by an Australian in a domestic one-day match, scored by Luke Ronchi, was 22 deliveries slower.</p><p>In total, the 21-year-old smacked 23 boundaries, 13 of which were sixes. Prior to Sunday, he had only hit 18 sixes in the 49 matches of his professional career.</p><p>Fraser-McGurk's formidable innings finally came to an end on 125 when he hit Beau Webster's off-spin to mid-wicket and was caught by Jake Weatherald.</p><p>Without him, the Redbacks were never able to fully take advantage of the flat Adelaide deck.</p><p>All-rounder Mitchell Owen was the pick of the bowlers for Tasmania, taking 3-46 including Daniel Drew (52) and Jake Lehmann (35) before they could truly kick on.</p><p>The Redbacks were all out for 398 in the 47th over, which was still the fifth-highest total in domestic one-day cup history and the largest one not to win.</p><p>Earlier, Silk helped steady Tasmania's ship after the loss of openers Caleb Jewell (90) and Weatherald (35) in the space of two overs.</p><p>The 31-year-old showed his maturity by moving slowly through the nervous 90s before launching into party mode after passing triple figures.</p><p>His innings came to a halt in the 45th over, when he attempted to slog McAndrew for a 15th boundary but was caught by Ben Manenti at deep midwicket.</p><p>Silk's century was his first in 57 List A matches.</p><p>The result comes after the Tigers dropped their first two matches and sat bottom of the ladder and leaves the Redbacks chasing their first 50-over win of the summer.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 08:10:39 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949484</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/cricket-jake-fraser-mcgurk-hits-record-breaking-century/102949484</link>
<category>jake fraser-mcgurk</category>
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<title><![CDATA[World Cup live: Australian middle order collapse leaves them on brink against India]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Australia kicks off its 2023 World Cup campaign with a tough clash against host nation India.</p><p>Check out the live scores and stats below.</p><div></div><h2>Scorecard</h2><div></div><h2>Manhattan</h2><div></div><h2>Ball-by-ball</h2><div></div></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:59:58 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102938010</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/cricket-world-cup-australia-india-scorecentre/102938010</link>
<category>cricket</category>
<category>world cup</category>
<category>australia</category>
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<item>
<title><![CDATA[Collingwood star requests AFL trade to Sydney Swans]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Sydney's bid to bounce back into AFL premiership contention is set to kick up a gear during the trade period as experienced midfielder Taylor Adams seeks a move north.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>The Magpies confirmed Adams's request on Sunday afternoon</li><li><span></span>They describe Adams as a "required player and leader"</li><li><span></span>Adams missed the grand final due to injury</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Adams has made his bombshell trade request official, informing Collingwood he wants to take up a multi-year deal with the Swans.</p><p>The 30-year-old could link up with former Magpies teammate Brodie Grundy in Sydney, with the ruckman poised to join his third club in three years.</p><p>It comes after Melbourne's experiment using Grundy and Max Gawn as ruck partners fell flat this year.</p><p>The Swans have also lured premiership players James Jordon and Joel Hamling, from Melbourne and Fremantle respectively, as free agents.</p><p>But they face a fight with Collingwood over the contracted Adams, who has one year left on his existing deal.</p><p>The Magpies confirmed Adams's trade request in a statement on Sunday, declaring him "a required player and leader".</p><p>"The club will discuss the request with Sydney," the statement read.</p><p>Adams missed Collingwood's grand-final win because of an untimely hamstring injury.</p><p>He has played 175 matches for the Magpies, winning their best-and-fairest award during his 2020 All-Australian campaign.</p><p>Adams started his senior career with 31 matches at GWS.</p><p>His potential move to Sydney shapes as the most high-profile switch of the trade period, which runs from October 9-18, after Melbourne declared Clayton Oliver would not be traded.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:25:47 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949462</guid>
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<category>taylor adams</category>
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<title><![CDATA[More than 5,000 people have hotel quarantine debt taken from bank account, as NSW premier defends move]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The New South Wales Premier has defended the state's revenue collecting agency withdrawing millions in unpaid hotel quarantine fees from people's bank accounts.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>More than 17,000 people have not paid their hotel quarantine bill</li><li><span></span>The government is owed almost $40 million in unpaid fees</li><li><span></span>Revenue NSW said it attempts to notify people when they have outstanding debts</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Revenue NSW is still chasing the $3,000 fee from more than 17,000 people who have not paid.</p><p>And it has issued more than 5,000 "garnishee orders" to debtors' bank accounts in an attempt to claw back the almost $40 million in outstanding hotel quarantine fees.</p><p>NSW took the bulk of international travellers returning to the country into its hotel quarantine system, which started in March 2020 and was initially free of charge until July 2020.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/67c51bd0b67fb2cbec603ae209dee7dc" alt="The premier said people with overdue fees were warned many times to pay.(ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>The premier said people with overdue fees were warned many times to pay.(ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Premier Chris Minns said people had been warned for "years and years" to pay their bill, and the government needed the money to pay for essential services.</p><p>"Those people were warned many times," Mr Minns said.</p><p>"The system was put in place so that we could allow people to come back into Australia in extremely difficult circumstances, and the quarantine payment issue could be sorted at a later date.</p><p>"Well, that date is today, and unfortunately the government needs that money to run essential services in the state."</p><h2>'Seems like an overreach'</h2><p>Former Victorian resident Justin De Vries said Revenue NSW took $3,000 from his bank account about three weeks ago.</p><p>"It seems like an overreach. You could say it's creepy," Mr De Vries said.</p><p>"I saw several thousand dollars out of my bank account, that's how I knew.</p><div><p>"Perhaps I missed an email, I don't believe I've been contacted. There was no phone call."</p></div>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/481650153c06bf312a8b85b1ae5de205" alt="Mr De Vries returned to Australia in January 2021 and stayed at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney during his isolation period.(ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Mr De Vries returned to Australia in January 2021 and stayed at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney during his isolation period.(ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mr De Vries said he returned from Europe to Australia in January 2021 for "personal reasons" and is now back living in Europe.</p><p>He admitted he had been avoiding the fee, because his two-week isolation at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney was "mistreatment" and the food provided was not hotel standard.</p><p>"It was actually inedible. I begged them to stop giving me bread because I can't eat bread,' he said.</p><p>"I actually quit being vegetarian to be able to eat edible food. It was all mistreatment from beginning to end."</p><p>Mr Minns said people whose accounts had been garnished would have been contacted before the money was taken.</p><div><p>"I've been assured that they had been warned quite a few times, in fact, numerous times before the money is effectively garnished."</p></div><p>A spokesman for Revenue NSW said in a statement it "always attempts communication with the customer to notify them" that an outstanding fee had not been paid.</p><p>"When checking in to a quarantine hotel, individuals were asked to provide contact details," the statement said.</p><p>"They were given a written notice informing them of the requirement to pay quarantine fees. Revenue NSW used these details to pursue payment."</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:24:07 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949138</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nsw-premier-defends-garnishee-orders-hotel-quarantine-debts/102949138</link>
<author><![CDATA[Isobel Roe]]></author>
<category>revenue nsw</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Light plane crash at Merriton in regional SA with two people on board]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>A light aircraft has crashed in South Australia's mid-north with two men on board. </p><p>South Australia Police said emergency services were called to Mumfords Road at Merriton just after 4pm this afternoon following reports a plane had crashed into a field. </p><p>They said two men on board suffered significant burns. </p><p>The incident is not connected to the Jamestown Air Spectacular which was on today. </p><p>Major crash investigators are attending the scene. </p><p>Police are urging the public to avoid the area if possible as there are road closures in place. </p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/19f72bdc816b4d94370ea2a27374c292" alt="Fire from the crash burned through a paddock. (ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Fire from the crash burned through a paddock. (ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 06:48:58 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949430</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/sa-merriton-light-plane-crash/102949430</link>
<category>merriton</category>
<category>crash</category>
<category>light plane</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Woman killed, man seriously injured after tree branch falls at Darwin Botanic Gardens]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>A woman has been killed and a man seriously injured after a tree branch fell onto them at Darwin's Botanic Gardens, Northern Territory Police say.</p><p>Authorities closed all entrances to the popular spot, located just north of the Darwin CBD, following the incident.</p><p>Emergency services were called to the scene by a person in the park shortly before 1pm Sunday.</p><p>In a statement released later in the afternoon, NT Police confirmed paramedics had declared a 28-year-old woman dead.</p><p>They said a 33-year-old man suffered serious injuries and had been taken to the Royal Darwin Hospital.</p><p>NT Police were urging the public to avoid the area.</p><p>Multiple police units remained at the Botanic Gardens on Sunday afternoon.</p><p>In a post to social media, Northern Territory Parks and Wildlife said the Botanic Gardens, including the cafe and visitor information centre, would be "closed until further notice".</p><p>It asked people to follow the directions of emergency services.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 06:06:44 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949374</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nt-person-killed-after-tree-falls-at-darwin-botanic-gardens/102949374</link>
<author><![CDATA[Thomas Morgan]]></author>
<category>nt</category>
<category>darwin botanic gardens</category>
<category>tree</category>
<category>death</category>
<category>nt police</category>
<category>police</category>
<category>emergency services</category>
<category>ambulance</category>
<category>st john</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Naked rower going for world record was saved by a cruise ship, heading home to Queensland]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The Brisbane extreme rower who capsized and was rescued by a cruise ship — prematurely ending his year-long world record attempt — will be back on Aussie soil soon.</p><p>Tom Robinson was in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-28/tom-robinson-rowing-rom-vanuatu-pacific-ocean/102914698">the final, "make-or-break leg" of his massive journey</a> when his rowboat was damaged by "a rouge wave" and he was left clinging naked to the hull of the vessel he built.</p><p>The 24-year-old had been attempting to break the record to become the youngest person to row across the Pacific Ocean, leaving Peru almost a year-and-a-half ago and only stopping in the Cook Islands for four months during cyclone season.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/bf0893d277957efdb6d58d68f0292977" alt="A cruise ship rescued Tom Robinson after his boat capsized in the Pacific Ocean.(Supplied)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>A cruise ship rescued Tom Robinson after his boat capsized in the Pacific Ocean.(Supplied)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>"A big wave came out of nowhere and unfortunately I didn't have the hatch closed to the cabin," he <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/holding-on-for-dear-life-aussie-ocean-rower-rescued-by-cruise-ship-describes-shivering-14-hours-stuck-at-sea/2AVGT4WCIVDTDAQTHSGN7RVC6U/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">told the NZ Herald</a>. </p><div><p>"I was sitting inside … so instantly I had to swim out from the flooded cabin, climb on top of the hull, and I activated my [satellite] phone which sent out a distress signal.</p></div><p>"It was really cold and I tied myself on … to the boat and that really helped me because waves were breaking over the boat constantly and I was just sort of holding on for dear life.</p><p>"I held on to the boat for about 14 hours and then … I saw the cruise ship approaching and I knew that I was saved."</p><p>P&O's Pacific Explorer was on a nine-day round-trip from Auckland, with 2,000 passengers aboard, when it received word of the distress beacon from the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.</p><p>The cruise liner made a 200-kilometre detour to pick up the stranded Queenslander.</p><p>Tom has expressed his thanks to the crew and on-board medical staff for their kindness and providing him with clothes and food. </p><div><p>"I didn't have any clothes on when the wave hit the boat — I usually row naked because it stops chafing," he said. </p></div><p>The young explorer said he "was surprisingly calm and collected" during the ordeal, maintaining "the utmost faith that help would arrive". </p><p>"You can't let any doubts creep in because then that becomes a really bad headspace to be in," Tom said. </p><p>"From when I was 14 onwards, I've been dreaming about this journey … and I didn't quite complete it. </p><p>"But that's okay, that's life."</p><h2>'Comedy in the tragedy'</h2><p>Dad Tim Robinson said, while his son "couldn't have been more terrified" as his cabin flooded, the family are now relaxed enough to find the "comedy in the tragedy". </p><div><p>"He had to climb up to the deck of the ship on a rope ladder with nothing on," he said.</p></div><p>"What a way to get rescued, in the nude."</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/56563cf6c356894b3ce17fb338ff2caf" alt="Tom after his arrival in Vanuatu, prior to the rescue.(Supplied)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Tom after his arrival in Vanuatu, prior to the rescue.(Supplied)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tim doesn't think the close call will dampen his son's excitement about exploring the world. </p><p>"A lot of the time it's stressful [watching Tom's travels], but particularly when this sort of event happens," he said.</p><p>"I've just got to say that everybody has been just so wonderful in helping us and helping Tom.</p><div><p>"[He'll] be thinking about the next adventure, don't worry."</p></div><p>Meanwhile mum is preparing a nice, home-cooked dinner to welcome Tom back.</p><h2>What's next for the rower?</h2><p>Tom said his days aboard the cruise ship made for "a very surreal experience" in comparison to rowing — saying he would make the most of it by eating and sleeping as much as possible — but admitted he felt "very bad" for causing the passengers to go off-course for his rescue.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/55b1134e98214c3b371adfad351ee224" alt="Tom with the crew onboard the P&O Cruises vessel." referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Tom with the crew onboard the P&O Cruises vessel.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>"It is a real shame that my life was in danger and I had to put other people out … I'm not proud of that at all," he said.</p><div><p>"I'd just like to say a huge thank you to all the crew on P&O Pacific Explorer whose seamanship and professionalism ensured a safe rescue.</p></div><p>"People from all around the world have really been interested in what I'm doing.</p><p>"I'll get back to Brisbane and take stock of it all and hopefully write a book about it. </p><div><p>"Perhaps one day I'll build another boat and I'll take it to Vanuatu [to] finish that last leg."</p></div></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 05:39:15 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949210</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/tom-robinson-arriving-back-row-boat-flipped-pacific-ocean-rescue/102949210</link>
<author><![CDATA[Gemma Ferguson/Michelle Tapper]]></author>
<category>qld</category>
<category>row boat</category>
<category>boat capsized</category>
<category>Tom Robinson</category>
<category>P&O cruise ship</category>
<category>rescue</category>
<category>world record attempt</category>
<category>sea voyage</category>
<category>Pacific Explorer</category>
<category>Pacific Ocean</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Suns sink Tigers with dramatic after-the-siren-behind as Kangaroos, Bombers score wins]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Gold Coast skipper Tara Bohanna has kicked the winning behind from long range after the final siren to lift the Suns to a dramatic one-point AFLW victory over Richmond.</p><p>The Suns were goalless at quarter-time and trailed by seven points at the long break but came home strongest to win 5.6 (35) to 5.5 (35) at and stay in the top eight.</p><p>The hero was Bohanna, who marked in the dying seconds with scores level at Princes Park and was able to slot a crucial minor score.</p><p>Charlie Rowbottom (31 disposals, five clearances) and Claudia Whitford (25, six) were the shining lights for Gold Coast, while Lucy Single did a successful tagging job on Richmond star Monique Conti (22 possessions).</p><p>Vivien Saad also stood up in defence for the Suns, collecting a match-high nine intercept possessions, including a spectacular flying mark against Tigers captain Katie Brennan.</p><p>Prized Tigers recruit Caitlin Greiser kicked the opening goal of the match after the quarter-time siren.</p><p>Former Sun Courtney Jones struck first to kickstart the second quarter before shoving former teammate Daisy D'arcy to spark a skirmish between the two sides.</p><div></div><p>Needing to return to Melbourne to be close to her younger sister who was diagnosed with thyroid cancer, Jones was traded in a straight swap for Maddy Brancatisano in the offseason.</p><p>Shannon Danckert also faced her former side after being delisted by the Suns last season, with Richmond forced to name the train-on player for the match amid a growing injury crisis.</p><p>Just five points separated the two sides at three-quarter time after back-to-back goals from Alana Gee and Georgia Clayden flipped the script on the Tigers.</p><p>The arm wrestle continued well into the fourth term with both sides lacking composure in front of goal.</p><p>Danckert grabbed a mark just in front of goal to rip the lead back for the Tigers but a rushed behind for the Suns quickly levelled scores before Bohanna sealed the win.</p><h2>Kangaroos climb ladder</h2>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/fed00fd44a62a09a79c48d594b1355a1" alt="Alice O'Loughlin celebrates a goal during the Kangaroos' defeat of the Dockers.(Getty Images: Paul Kane)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Alice O'Loughlin celebrates a goal during the Kangaroos' defeat of the Dockers.(Getty Images: Paul Kane)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ball magnets Ash Riddell and Jasmine Garner fired the Kangaroos into second spot on the ladder with starring roles in a 45-point belting of Fremantle.</p><p>Riddell (37 disposals, six clearances) and Garner (30, three) were dominant figures in the midfield throughout the Kangaroos' 10.6 (66) to 3.3 (21) victory at Fremantle Oval.</p><p>Jenna Bruton (27, four) and Mia King (21, six) also shone, while Tahlia Randall (five goals) and Kate Shierlaw (two) benefited from their teammates' control around the contest.</p><p>Bruton became the 16th player in AFLW history to reach 1,000 career disposals and matched King with a match-high 11 tackles.</p><p>It was a disappointing result for Fremantle, who would have moved into the top eight with a win.</p><p>Defender Emma O'Driscoll (28 disposals) was the Dockers' best in a losing cause, as the home side managed just 0.2 to North's 6.1 after half-time.</p><div></div><p>Aine Tighe gave Fremantle a great start with the opening goal inside two minutes but the Kangaroos controlled proceedings throughout the first half.</p><p>The visitors dominated inside-50s (25-10) and disposals (149-118) to half-time and would have led by more than 10 points if not for wasteful kicking at times in front of goal.</p><p>Shierlaw and Randall led the way with two majors each to that point as Riddell (20 disposals), Garner (19) and Bruton (16) ran amok in the midfield.</p><p>Randall's third goal and another from Tess Craven increased the Kangaroos' lead to 22 points by the final change, with the Dockers held scoreless in the third quarter.</p><p>It got ugly in the last quarter as Shierlaw assisted Randall's fourth goal and blew the margin out to 27 points.</p><p>Randall completed the rout with her fifth major on the final siren.</p><h2>Bombers trump Cats</h2>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/91d638a853ab8bc9970b67a2542772ba" alt="Maddy Prespakis (right) played a key role in the Bombers' defeat of the Cats.(Getty Images/AFL Photos: Graham Denholm)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Maddy Prespakis (right) played a key role in the Bombers' defeat of the Cats.(Getty Images/AFL Photos: Graham Denholm)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Essendon pulled off a sensational come-from-behind win over Geelong, triumphing by 10 points to move itself inside the top eight.</p><p>Left with a sour taste in their mouths after a 20-point loss to Collingwood last round, the Bombers overcame a scoreless start to win 4.5 (29) to 2.7 (19) against the Cats at Warrnambool's Reid Oval on Sunday.</p><p>The sixth-round win provided Essendon midfield star Maddy Prespakis with family bragging rights over younger sister Georgie in their second AFLW match-up.</p><p>Maddy Prespakis also celebrated her 50th match in style with 33 disposals and six clearances as she arm-wrestled her sister (26, 10) for dominance in the midfield.</p><p>The younger Prespakis, in her 25th AFLW appearance, kicked the first goal of the afternoon but was denied by the umpires who argued — without a score review system — the ball was touched.</p><div></div><p>The ever-prolific Chloe Scheer broke through twice to give the Cats a 14-point lead while the hosts were scoreless by quarter-time.</p><p>A desperate Essendon went to work in the second quarter, leading contested possessions 14 to four for the term and generating three of the first four inside-50s.</p><p>With a minute left on the clock and only three behinds on the scoreboard, Amber Clarke snapped the ball towards goal.</p><p>As the ball looked sure to spray across the face, it miraculously bounced backward to slot through the posts and give the Bombers a much-needed six points.</p><p>Bombers co-captain Bonnie Toogood cut the margin to one point to kickstart the second half and bring herself within three goals of 50 career majors.</p><p>With scores level at three quarter-time, Georgia Nanscawen (24 disposals, six clearances) worked diligently to put the ball back in the hands of the Bombers.</p><p>Daria Bannister kicked truly to put Essendon in the lead and was backed by another from Clarke to seal the win.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:41:31 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949268</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/aflw-suns-tigers-bombers-cats-kangaroos-dockers/102949268</link>
<category>essendon</category>
<category>bombers</category>
<category>aflw</category>
<category>geelong</category>
<category>cats</category>
<category>kangaroos</category>
<category>fremantle</category>
<category>dockers</category>
<category>richmond</category>
<category>tigers</category>
<category>gold coast</category>
<category>suns</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Federal government makes new shingles vaccine free for older Australians from November 1]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Older and immunocompromised Australians will be given free access to a new, more effective shingles vaccine from next month. </p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>A new shingles vaccine will be free for older Australians and immunocompromised people from November 1 </li><li><span></span>The jab is more effective than the shingles vaccine currently available on the National Immunisation Program </li><li><span></span>The risk of developing shingles increases with age </li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Nearly five million people will be eligible for the vaccination from November 1, including those aged 65 years and over, First Nations people aged 50 years and over and immunocompromised people aged 18 years and over who are at high risk of catching the shingles virus. </p><p>Shingles, which is also known as herpes zoster, is caused by the reactivation of the same virus that causes chickenpox and presents as a painful, blistering rash on one side of the face or body. </p><p>The virus usually lasts 10 to 15 days but one in five people will develop long-term nerve pain known as post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), which can last for months or even years after the rash has gone away. </p><p>According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare one in three people will develop shingles at some point in their life, with the risk of catching the virus increasing with age, becoming most common in those aged 60 and older. </p><p>Minister for Health and Aged Care Mark Butler said the federal government was investing $826.8 million to provide the Shingrix vaccine under the National Immunisation Program (NIP). </p><p>"I'm told by hospital operators that increasingly there are presentations by older Australians to hospital because of complications driven by shingles," Mr Butler said. </p><p>"This is a very serious public health menace that we can front in Australia. </p><p>"This investment will ensure nearly five million Australians can get free protection from shingles and the very painful nerve damage that it causes."</p>
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<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/bdabfb326fc1e564bd2dfcf86eca8a75" alt="Mark Butler says the new vaccine is more effective than the one currently available on the National Immunisation Program. (ABC News. )" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Mark Butler says the new vaccine is more effective than the one currently available on the National Immunisation Program. (ABC News. )</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Shingrix vaccine will replace the Zostavax vaccine on the NIP following advice from the independent medicines experts at the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee and the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation. </p><p>Mr Butler said the currently available Zostavax vaccine was "only moderately effective". </p><p>"[Shingrix] is much more effective, about 90 per cent effective in older Australians in preventing shingles against 40 per cent for older Australians with the existing vaccine and is also much longer-lasting," he said. </p><p>"Shingles can be severe, so it's really important that eligible people talk to their GP or pharmacist about getting the shingles vaccine." </p><p>Senior Clinical Immunologist at the Royal Adelaide Hospital Pravin Hissaria urged those eligible to talk to their GP or health practitioner about getting the vaccine as soon as possible. </p><p>"The uptake should be a lot higher because it does not have lots of precautions that needed to be taken with the previously available vaccine," he said. </p><p>"It is to be taken in two doses, preferably two months apart but it can be taken from two to six months apart." </p><p>The Shingrix vaccine, which would otherwise cost up to $560, provides about 10 years of protection against shingles.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:35:02 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949012</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/sa-free-shingles-vaccinations-for-older-australians/102949012</link>
<author><![CDATA[Rebecca Opie]]></author>
<category>shingles</category>
<category>vaccine</category>
<category>nip</category>
<category>national immunisation program</category>
<category>shingrix</category>
<category>zostavax</category>
<category>mark butler</category>
<category>chicken pox</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[How Israel was blindsided by the Hamas attack: the intelligence failure that led to a devastating assault]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>After the Hamas fighters inside Israel have been caught or killed, after the inevitable Israeli ground assault into Gaza, and after the funerals of many Israelis and Palestinians who die in this conflict, there will be another wave of bloodletting.</p><p>It will involve the careers of the intelligence and military officials whose networks failed completely to detect a hint of this attack.</p><p>This was a complex assault, involving scores, if not hundreds, of militants.</p><p>There were multiple breaches of the barrier around the Gaza strip. It was a carefully coordinated operation involving thousands of rockets, explosives to pierce the border fence, ultralights, motorbikes, cars, drones and even a (failed) attack by boat.</p><p>And Israel had no idea that any of it was coming. If it had, the Israeli military would have been prepared. Its soldiers would have been on alert. There would have been checkpoints on the roads. Rapid response forces would have been ready to take on the attackers.</p><p>Instead, the attack early on a Saturday morning caught the military and civilians alike by surprise, at border outposts, at the towns closest to Gaza, on the roads and at an all-night music festival attended by thousands of young Israelis.</p><p>Camera-phone footage shows armed Hamas fighters moving unimpeded inside Israeli military bases, on roads in southern Israel, around Israeli towns, entering homes and bringing hostages back into Gaza.</p><p>Initial reports say they entered as many as 22 separate locations, unchallenged in some cases for six hours. Fighting continued in some places for at least 12 hours after the initial assaults.</p><p>The military's unpreparedness and chaotic response seems to be highlighted by the footage of a lone tank crew being taken hostage: where was the infantry that should have been supporting the armour? Had the crew become isolated from its support, or had it gone out on its own?</p><p>Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth: 2 million people squeezed into a space the size of a handful of suburbs in Sydney's east. It's also one of the most-heavily monitored, constantly watched by satellites and drones and Israeli agents and sources on the ground.</p><p>In such a place, it's extraordinary that not a hint of the planning for this operation was picked up.</p><p>This is a catastrophe for Israel: 300 of its citizens have been killed in the first 24 hours, with more than 1,500 injured. That's the deadliest day for Israel in at least 50 years, ranking with the worst moments of the 1967 Six Day War.</p><p>It's also a disaster for Palestinians: already, at least 234 Palestinians have died, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Many of them are civilians and many more will likely die in the coming days.</p><p>Israel's response inside Gaza has already begun, with air strikes from Israeli jets. A major ground assault is likely, as Israeli forces attempt to bring back some of the hostages now held inside Gaza. The presence of the hostages also complicates any Israeli response: the risk of killing hostages in a rescue operation is high.</p><p>The regional consequences of the Hamas attack and the Israeli response are unknowable. As always in the Middle East, there's the potential for things to get much, much worse.</p><p>Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel is at war, and has promised swift retribution. Just as civilian deaths in Israel harden the attitude of Israelis, more deaths in Gaza will harden the attitude of the Arab world towards Israel. It will damage the tentative recent steps towards normalisation of relations.</p><p>The conflict will also slow progress towards a US-sponsored deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and could kill it.</p><p>So far, there has not been wide-spread fighting in the West Bank, home to 3 million people, occupied by Israel but controlled by the Palestinian Authority.</p><p>There is a risk that this conflict could expand across Israel's northern border: there are already reports of rocket strikes from the Iranian-backed militant group, Hezbollah, which is based in southern Lebanon.</p><p>So far, the attacks and the Israeli response has been relatively minor with no reports of injuries. That could change.</p><p>Israel is responding in force to this attack on its people. But as the fighting continues, deaths of more Palestinian civilians in Gaza will harden attitudes in the region and has the potential to make the Palestinian Authority seem irrelevant, and strengthen the hand of the extremists who lead Hamas. That was surely their aim when they began planning for this day.</p><p>Meanwhile, the blockade of Gaza tightens, with Israel already cutting off electricity, and the lives of Palestinians becomes more difficult, and dangerous.</p></div>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:12:25 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949034</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/israeli-intelligence-caught-by-surprise-hamas-attack/102949034</link>
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<author><![CDATA[Adam Harvey]]></author>
<category>hamas</category>
<category>israel</category>
<category>analysis</category>
<category>gaza</category>
<category>palestinians</category>
<category>israeli</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Is there really a 1 in 6 chance of human extinction this century?]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>In 2020, Oxford-based philosopher Toby Ord published a book called <a href="https://theprecipice.com/">The Precipice</a> about the risk of human extinction. He put the chances of "existential catastrophe" for our species during the next century at one in six.</p><p>It's quite a specific number, and an alarming one. The claim drew <a href="https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/humans-have-1-6-chance-21960557">headlines</a> at the time, and has been influential since — most recently brought up by Australian politician Andrew Leigh in a <a href="https://www.andrewleigh.com/what_s_the_worst_that_could_happen_existential_risk_and_extreme_politics_speech">speech</a> in Melbourne.</p><p>It's hard to disagree with the idea we face troubling prospects over the coming decades, from climate change, nuclear weapons and bio-engineered pathogens (all big issues in my view), to rogue AI and large asteroids (which I would see as less concerning).</p><p>But what about that number? Where does it come from? And what does it really mean?</p><h2>Coin flips and weather forecasts</h2><p>To answer those questions, we have to answer another first: what is probability?</p><p>The most traditional view of probability is called frequentism, and derives its name from its heritage in games of dice and cards. On this view, we know there is a one in six chance a fair die will come up with a three (for example) by observing the frequency of threes in a large number of rolls.</p><p>Or consider the more complicated case of weather forecasts. What does it mean when a metrologist tells us there is a one in six (or 17 per cent) chance of rain tomorrow?</p><p>It's hard to believe the metrologist means us to imagine a large collection of "tomorrows", of which some proportion will experience precipitation. Instead, we need to look at a large number of such predictions and see what happened after them.</p><p>If the forecaster is good at their job, we should see that when they said "one in six chance of rain tomorrow", it did in fact rain on the following day one time in every six.</p><p>So, traditional probability depends on observations and procedure. To calculate it, we need to have a collection of repeated events on which to base our estimate.</p><h2>Can we learn from the Moon?</h2><p>So what does this mean for the probability of human extinction? Well, such an event would be a one-off: after it happened, there would be no room for repeats.</p><p>Instead, we might find some parallel events to learn from. Indeed, in Ord's book, he discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can potentially be examined in light of a history.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/db42eb9cd3139104f2a312650de2ce51" alt="Counting craters on the Moon can give us clues about the risk of asteroid impacts on Earth. (Supplied: NASA)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Counting craters on the Moon can give us clues about the risk of asteroid impacts on Earth. (Supplied: NASA)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, we can estimate the chances of an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth by examining how many such space rocks have hit the Moon over its history. A French scientist named Jean-Marc Salotti <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328722000337">did this in 2022</a>, calculating the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century at around one in 300 million.</p><p>Of course, such an estimate is fraught with uncertainty, but it is backed by something approaching an appropriate frequency calculation. Ord, by contrast, estimates the risk of extinction by asteroid at one in a million, though he does note a considerable degree of uncertainty.</p><h2>A ranking system for outcomes</h2><p>There is another way to think about probability, called Bayesianism after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It focuses less on events themselves and more on what we know, expect and believe about them.</p><p>In very simple terms, we can say Bayesians see probabilities as a kind of ranking system. In this view, the specific number attached to a probability shouldn't be taken directly, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand which outcomes are more and less likely.</p><p>Ord's book, for example, contains a table of potential extinction events and his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these values as relative ranks. Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand), and both are far less likely than extinction from what he calls "unaligned artificial intelligence" (one in 10).</p><p>The difficulty here is that initial estimates of Bayesian probabilities (often called "priors") are rather subjective (for instance, I would rank the chance of AI-based extinction much lower). Traditional Bayesian reasoning moves from "priors" to "posteriors" by again incorporating observational evidence of relevant outcomes to "update" probability values.</p><p>And once again, outcomes relevant to the probability of human extinction are thin on the ground.</p><h2>Subjective estimates</h2><p>There are two ways to think about the accuracy and usefulness of probability calculations: calibration and discrimination.</p><p>Calibration is the correctness of the actual values of the probabilities. We can't determine this without appropriate observational information. Discrimination, on the other hand, simply refers to the relative rankings.</p><p>We don't have a basis to think Ord's values are properly calibrated. Of course, this is not likely to be his intent. He himself indicates they are mostly designed to give "order of magnitude" indications.</p><p>Even so, without any related observational confirmation, most of these estimates simply remain in the subjective domain of prior probabilities.</p><h2>Not well calibrated — but perhaps still useful</h2><p>So what are we to make of "one in six"? Experience suggests most people have a less than perfect understanding of probability (as evidenced by, among other things, the ongoing volume of lottery ticket sales). In this environment, if you're making an argument in public, an estimate of "probability" doesn't necessarily need to be well calibrated — it just needs to have the right sort of psychological impact.</p><p>From this perspective, I'd say "one in six" fits the bill nicely. "One in 100" might feel small enough to ignore, while "one in three" might drive panic or be dismissed as apocalyptic raving.</p><p>As a person concerned about the future, I hope risks like climate change and nuclear proliferation get the attention they deserve. But as a data scientist, I hope the careless use of probability gets left by the wayside and is replaced by widespread education on its true meaning and appropriate usage.</p><p><strong>Steven Stern is Professor of Data Science at Bond University. This piece first appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction-this-century-215054" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Conversation</a>.</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 03:55:14 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102942530</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction/102942530</link>
<category>extinction</category>
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<title><![CDATA[VCAT sides with residents to scrap hotel development on Ballarat's farming fringes]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Local residents are celebrating after authorities overturned a decision to approve a 111-room hotel on "essential" farmland at the entrance of Ballarat.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>VCAT overturns hotel proposal for farmland on the edge of Ballarat, circumventing council approval</li><li><span></span>Residents say the 'power is in the hands of the people' after self-representing at the tribunal</li><li><span></span>Local resident Kirrily Liddle says the area is protected for farming use, and needs to stay that way despite urban sprawl</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Kirrily Liddle lives 150 metres from the proposed Western Freeway hotel site project in Warrenheip, which a Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) has now rejected. </p><p>Last August, the Ballarat City Council approved the proposal to allow the major development to go ahead despite the area being mainly zoned for farm use.</p><p>Ms Liddle, who was one of the parties that took the decision to the tribunal last year, said the VCAT result was a reflection of the power of the people.</p><div><p>"I'm proud that we stuck to our guns and forced this issue – we knew that it was better to be kept as farmland," Ms Liddle said.</p></div><p>"We really wanted to protect our area from this type of development."</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/b7fa5a6d46c02ca0050eccc1348c66f2" alt="Kirrily Liddle says despite the group being unable to afford legal representation, they worked hard to present the facts for a good outcome. (Supplied: Kirrily Liddle)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Kirrily Liddle says despite the group being unable to afford legal representation, they worked hard to present the facts for a good outcome. (Supplied: Kirrily Liddle)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One section on the western side of the Warrenheip site is zoned for mixed use, but residents expressed concerns that a hotel would cause higher volumes of traffic, which would be dangerous.</p><p>"The roads are terrible, we have two really dangerous intersections," Ms Liddle said.</p><div><p>"My aim is that, any development that happens in the Warrenheip area considers the impacts. I don't want the intersection upgrade to be an afterthought."</p></div><p>The site, next to Ballarat's Mill Markets on Mahers Road, is a 5.5-hectare parcel of land sandwiched between residential properties and farmland to the east, and the ever-growing edges of Ballarat to the west.</p><p>The two-storey residential hotel was approved by council last year with a spa and function centre, a restaurant, and a gin distillery.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/6e8c226c7a502714fb23bc136caf227c" alt="Warrenheip features large potato farms, timber plantations, and livestock ranches. (ABC Ballarat: Laura Mayers)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Warrenheip features large potato farms, timber plantations, and livestock ranches. (ABC Ballarat: Laura Mayers)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Forte Developments was contacted for comment.</p><p>"The scale and intensity of the proposed land use and development is significant for this site," said senior VCAT member, Rachel Naylor.</p><div><p>"The proposal is not compatible with the surrounding land ... The proposal does have impacts on the surrounding land, including unacceptable impacts."</p></div><p>After beginning with mediation sessions 18 months ago, the group of residents fighting the proposal cited concerns about the impact on the agricultural value of the land by way of water, weeds, biosecurity and more. </p><p>Ms Liddle said the edges of the city were still flanked by "essential" farmland, which should not be lost to urban sprawl. </p><p>"The VCAT process is definitely intimidating, but it's definitely worth the process," she said.</p><div><p>"We didn |
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<title><![CDATA[Israelis describe 'nightmare' as Hamas gunmen take hostages at music festival and roam the streets]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Stunned Israelis have described seeing bodies in the streets and Hamas fighters roaming outside their homes as they took shelter during an unprecedented attack by the militant group in southern Israel on Saturday.</p><p><strong>WARNING: This story contains images and details some people may find distressing.</strong></p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>Hamas militants attacked settlements in southern Israel for hours on Saturday, taking civilian hostages back to Gaza</li><li><span></span>Thousands of Israelis attending a music festival near Re'im also came under fire, with many killed and some taken captive</li><li><span></span>Hamas says the attack was a response to Israel's continued occupation of the Palestinian territories</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Even the residents of communities near the Gaza Strip, who have grown used to the wail of air-raid sirens, described <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-07/israel-targets-hamas-military-operation-rocket-attacks/102947766">Saturday's ground assault</a> — with militants entering their communities in pick-up trucks, on boats, and by hang-gliders — as a "nightmare" come true.</p><p>Jehan Berman, a 42-year-old man living in the small community of Avshalom near Gaza, said it took eight hours for the Israeli military to arrive in his settlement and start fending off Hamas fighters.</p><div><p>"This was always the nightmare. We told ourselves that one day, the terrorists will come inside here," he said.</p></div><p>Hamas's surprise attack came after weeks of heightened tensions along the Gaza border, and heavy fighting in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.</p><p>Salah Arouri, an exiled Hamas leader, said the attack was a response to "the crimes of the occupation", including Israeli incursions at the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and the thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.</p><h2>Thousands attacked at music festival</h2><p>A desert rave attended by thousands of Israelis came under attack by Hamas militants who had crossed the border.</p><p>Witnesses told Israeli media that the militants sprayed bullets into the crowd of revellers, who just moments earlier had been dancing at the Nova Festival near the Israeli kibbutz, or settlement, of Re'im.</p><p>"The music stopped and there was a rocket siren," a young woman named Ortal told Israel's N12 News.</p><div><p>"Suddenly, out of nowhere, they started shooting."</p></div><p>Footage posted on social media showed dozens of people running through fields and along a road, escaping militants as gun shots were heard.</p><p>Another video posted to social media showed a couple who attended the festival being captured by militants.</p><p>The man, <a href="https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/378048">identified by his brother as Avinatan Or</a>, is shown being led away on foot by men as his partner, Noa Argamani, is driven away by two men on a motorbike. </p><p>She screams and reaches toward her partner as she is driven away.</p><p>Esther Borochov, who fled the outdoor festival, told Reuters she survived by playing dead in a car after the driver, who had been trying to help her escape, was shot point blank.</p><p>"I couldn't move my legs," she said from hospital.</p><p>"Soldiers came and took us away to the bushes."</p><h2>Footage shows captives taken into Gaza</h2><p>Palestinian militant groups circulated footage on social media showing what they said were captured Israeli soldiers and civilians being driven into Gaza, as well as hostages being held by more fighters inside Israel.</p><p>One video shows a young Israeli woman stumbling out of the boot of a black Jeep, bleeding from the head and with her hands tied behind her back.</p><p>A man waving a gun in the air grabs her by the hair and pushes her into the vehicle's back seat.</p><p>One Associated Press photo shows an abducted elderly Israeli woman being driven into Gaza on a golf cart by Hamas gunmen.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/d340dad8c057916133d470c0b8d655f4" alt="Palestinian militants drive a captured Israeli civilian into the Gaza Strip on Saturday.(AP: Hatem Ali)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Palestinian militants drive a captured Israeli civilian into the Gaza Strip on Saturday.(AP: Hatem Ali)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another shows a woman squeezed between two fighters on a motorcycle.</p><p>AP journalists witnessed four people being taken from the kibbutz of Kfar Aza, including two women.</p><h2>Fighting continued throughout the day</h2><p>In the southern Israeli town of Sderot, one resident reported seeing multiple bodies and bullet-scarred vehicles where groups of Hamas gunmen were still fighting Israeli troops on Saturday afternoon.</p><p>"I went out, I saw loads of bodies of terrorists, civilians, cars shot up. A sea of bodies, inside Sderot along the road, other places, loads of bodies," the resident said.</p><p>Israel's ambulance service said its crews were unable to reach the wounded in towns where fighting was ongoing.</p><p>An ambulance was also attacked, the Magen David Adom medical service said. One crew member was reportedly killed.</p><p>Israeli TV stations carried telephone calls from terrified residents of towns and kibbutz, speaking even as gunmen were trying to break into their shelters.</p><p>A woman identified as Ella said she had barricaded herself in a bomb shelter for hours in the Be'eri kibbutz, where there were reports of 50 Israelis being held hostage by Hamas.</p><p>"We can hear a lot of gunfire, we were told that terrorists are in the dining hall, we can hear a lot of shooting," she told N12 News in a live interview.</p><div><p>"I've lost contact with my family. I know my father has been kidnapped … no-one is telling us what's going on. I don't know if my mother is alive."</p></div><p>In the kibbutz of Nahal Oz, just four kilometres from the Gaza Strip, terrified residents huddling indoors could hear constant gunfire echoing off buildings as firefights continued.</p><p>"With rockets we somehow feel safer, knowing that we have the Iron Dome [missile defence system] and our safe rooms," said Mirjam Reijnen, a 42-year-old volunteer firefighter and mother of three.</p><p>"But knowing that terrorists are walking around communities is a different kind of fear."</p><p><strong>Wires/ABC</strong></p></div>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 12:39:43 GMT</pubDate>
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<category>gaza</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Dead woman found inside house in Sydney's south, after dead man found in truck parked in driveway]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The bodies of a man and a woman have been found at a home in Sydney's south on Sunday.</p><p>NSW Police were called to the Union Street property in Riverwood just before 2pm, where they found the body of a man in a truck parked in the driveway.</p><p>Officers found the body of the woman after they entered the single-level home.</p><p>Footage from the scene shows the house cordoned off with police tape, as officers and detectives speak to neighbours.</p><p>Forensic specialists can also be seen indoors, with yellow evidence bags placed on the ground. </p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/9264e73d4ab47e7c4b8dea998642d116" alt="Forensic officers attended the scene at Union Street.(ABC News: Tony Ibrahim)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Forensic officers attended the scene at Union Street.(ABC News: Tony Ibrahim)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jack, who lives across the road, told the ABC he had never spoken to the man and woman, but the situation was very sad.</p><p>"It's very tragic, we see each other but not much talking. He's a truck driver and always came back very late," he said.</p><p>"I don't know what happened, maybe family problems."</p><p>Police say they are investigating whether the incident is domestic-violence related.</p><p>St George detectives along with State Crime Command's Homicide Squad are investigating, and urge anyone with information to call Crime Stoppers.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 08:35:37 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949518</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nsw-police-find-two-bodies-man-and-woman-at-riverwood/102949518</link>
<author><![CDATA[Tony Ibrahim]]></author>
<category>homicide squad</category>
<category>nsw police</category>
<category>domestic-violence</category>
<category>sydney's south</category>
<category>driveway</category>
<category>St George detectives</category>
<category>State Crime Command's Homicide Squad</category>
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<item>
<title><![CDATA[Fraser-McGurk breaks world record in domestic one-day cup match]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>South Australia's Jake Fraser-McGurk has set a world record for the fastest century in a 50-over cricket match, but it was not enough to stop Tasmania defeating the Redbacks by 37 runs in the domestic one-day cup.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>Fraser-McGurk took just 29 balls to reach his century</li><li><span></span>The previous world record was held by South African great AB de Villiers</li><li><span></span>He eventually made 125 in the Redbacks' loss</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>After being sent in to bat at Karen Rolton Oval on Sunday, the Tigers broke the competition record for largest total, with captain Jordan Silk contributing 116 runs of their 9-435.</p><p>Tasmania's effort was 15 runs greater than the 420 South Australia managed against the Cricket Australia XI in 2016.</p><p>But a hot start from Fraser-McGurk put the Redbacks in position to make history themselves.</p><p>Despite never having scored a century in any form before Sunday, Fraser-McGurk only needed 29 balls to reach triple figures, two fewer than South African great AB de Villiers in an ODI in 2015.</p><p>The next-fastest ton by an Australian in a domestic one-day match, scored by Luke Ronchi, was 22 deliveries slower.</p><p>In total, the 21-year-old smacked 23 boundaries, 13 of which were sixes. Prior to Sunday, he had only hit 18 sixes in the 49 matches of his professional career.</p><p>Fraser-McGurk's formidable innings finally came to an end on 125 when he hit Beau Webster's off-spin to mid-wicket and was caught by Jake Weatherald.</p><p>Without him, the Redbacks were never able to fully take advantage of the flat Adelaide deck.</p><p>All-rounder Mitchell Owen was the pick of the bowlers for Tasmania, taking 3-46 including Daniel Drew (52) and Jake Lehmann (35) before they could truly kick on.</p><p>The Redbacks were all out for 398 in the 47th over, which was still the fifth-highest total in domestic one-day cup history and the largest one not to win.</p><p>Earlier, Silk helped steady Tasmania's ship after the loss of openers Caleb Jewell (90) and Weatherald (35) in the space of two overs.</p><p>The 31-year-old showed his maturity by moving slowly through the nervous 90s before launching into party mode after passing triple figures.</p><p>His innings came to a halt in the 45th over, when he attempted to slog McAndrew for a 15th boundary but was caught by Ben Manenti at deep midwicket.</p><p>Silk's century was his first in 57 List A matches.</p><p>The result comes after the Tigers dropped their first two matches and sat bottom of the ladder and leaves the Redbacks chasing their first 50-over win of the summer.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 08:10:39 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949484</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/cricket-jake-fraser-mcgurk-hits-record-breaking-century/102949484</link>
<category>jake fraser-mcgurk</category>
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<title><![CDATA[World Cup live: Australian middle order collapse leaves them on brink against India]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Australia kicks off its 2023 World Cup campaign with a tough clash against host nation India.</p><p>Check out the live scores and stats below.</p><div></div><h2>Scorecard</h2><div></div><h2>Manhattan</h2><div></div><h2>Ball-by-ball</h2><div></div></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:59:58 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102938010</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/cricket-world-cup-australia-india-scorecentre/102938010</link>
<category>cricket</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Collingwood star requests AFL trade to Sydney Swans]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Sydney's bid to bounce back into AFL premiership contention is set to kick up a gear during the trade period as experienced midfielder Taylor Adams seeks a move north.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>The Magpies confirmed Adams's request on Sunday afternoon</li><li><span></span>They describe Adams as a "required player and leader"</li><li><span></span>Adams missed the grand final due to injury</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Adams has made his bombshell trade request official, informing Collingwood he wants to take up a multi-year deal with the Swans.</p><p>The 30-year-old could link up with former Magpies teammate Brodie Grundy in Sydney, with the ruckman poised to join his third club in three years.</p><p>It comes after Melbourne's experiment using Grundy and Max Gawn as ruck partners fell flat this year.</p><p>The Swans have also lured premiership players James Jordon and Joel Hamling, from Melbourne and Fremantle respectively, as free agents.</p><p>But they face a fight with Collingwood over the contracted Adams, who has one year left on his existing deal.</p><p>The Magpies confirmed Adams's trade request in a statement on Sunday, declaring him "a required player and leader".</p><p>"The club will discuss the request with Sydney," the statement read.</p><p>Adams missed Collingwood's grand-final win because of an untimely hamstring injury.</p><p>He has played 175 matches for the Magpies, winning their best-and-fairest award during his 2020 All-Australian campaign.</p><p>Adams started his senior career with 31 matches at GWS.</p><p>His potential move to Sydney shapes as the most high-profile switch of the trade period, which runs from October 9-18, after Melbourne declared Clayton Oliver would not be traded.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:25:47 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949462</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/afl-trade-collingwood-taylor-adams-sydney-swans/102949462</link>
<category>taylor adams</category>
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<title><![CDATA[More than 5,000 people have hotel quarantine debt taken from bank account, as NSW premier defends move]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The New South Wales Premier has defended the state's revenue collecting agency withdrawing millions in unpaid hotel quarantine fees from people's bank accounts.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>More than 17,000 people have not paid their hotel quarantine bill</li><li><span></span>The government is owed almost $40 million in unpaid fees</li><li><span></span>Revenue NSW said it attempts to notify people when they have outstanding debts</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Revenue NSW is still chasing the $3,000 fee from more than 17,000 people who have not paid.</p><p>And it has issued more than 5,000 "garnishee orders" to debtors' bank accounts in an attempt to claw back the almost $40 million in outstanding hotel quarantine fees.</p><p>NSW took the bulk of international travellers returning to the country into its hotel quarantine system, which started in March 2020 and was initially free of charge until July 2020.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/67c51bd0b67fb2cbec603ae209dee7dc" alt="The premier said people with overdue fees were warned many times to pay.(ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>The premier said people with overdue fees were warned many times to pay.(ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Premier Chris Minns said people had been warned for "years and years" to pay their bill, and the government needed the money to pay for essential services.</p><p>"Those people were warned many times," Mr Minns said.</p><p>"The system was put in place so that we could allow people to come back into Australia in extremely difficult circumstances, and the quarantine payment issue could be sorted at a later date.</p><p>"Well, that date is today, and unfortunately the government needs that money to run essential services in the state."</p><h2>'Seems like an overreach'</h2><p>Former Victorian resident Justin De Vries said Revenue NSW took $3,000 from his bank account about three weeks ago.</p><p>"It seems like an overreach. You could say it's creepy," Mr De Vries said.</p><p>"I saw several thousand dollars out of my bank account, that's how I knew.</p><div><p>"Perhaps I missed an email, I don't believe I've been contacted. There was no phone call."</p></div>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/481650153c06bf312a8b85b1ae5de205" alt="Mr De Vries returned to Australia in January 2021 and stayed at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney during his isolation period.(ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Mr De Vries returned to Australia in January 2021 and stayed at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney during his isolation period.(ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mr De Vries said he returned from Europe to Australia in January 2021 for "personal reasons" and is now back living in Europe.</p><p>He admitted he had been avoiding the fee, because his two-week isolation at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney was "mistreatment" and the food provided was not hotel standard.</p><p>"It was actually inedible. I begged them to stop giving me bread because I can't eat bread,' he said.</p><p>"I actually quit being vegetarian to be able to eat edible food. It was all mistreatment from beginning to end."</p><p>Mr Minns said people whose accounts had been garnished would have been contacted before the money was taken.</p><div><p>"I've been assured that they had been warned quite a few times, in fact, numerous times before the money is effectively garnished."</p></div><p>A spokesman for Revenue NSW said in a statement it "always attempts communication with the customer to notify them" that an outstanding fee had not been paid.</p><p>"When checking in to a quarantine hotel, individuals were asked to provide contact details," the statement said.</p><p>"They were given a written notice informing them of the requirement to pay quarantine fees. Revenue NSW used these details to pursue payment."</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:24:07 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949138</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nsw-premier-defends-garnishee-orders-hotel-quarantine-debts/102949138</link>
<author><![CDATA[Isobel Roe]]></author>
<category>revenue nsw</category>
<category>garnishee orders</category>
<category>hotel quarantine</category>
<category>covid-19</category>
<category>covid measures</category>
<category>chris minns</category>
<category>unpaid bills</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Light plane crash at Merriton in regional SA with two people on board]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>A light aircraft has crashed in South Australia's mid-north with two men on board. </p><p>South Australia Police said emergency services were called to Mumfords Road at Merriton just after 4pm this afternoon following reports a plane had crashed into a field. </p><p>They said two men on board suffered significant burns. </p><p>The incident is not connected to the Jamestown Air Spectacular which was on today. </p><p>Major crash investigators are attending the scene. </p><p>Police are urging the public to avoid the area if possible as there are road closures in place. </p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/19f72bdc816b4d94370ea2a27374c292" alt="Fire from the crash burned through a paddock. (ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Fire from the crash burned through a paddock. (ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 06:48:58 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949430</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/sa-merriton-light-plane-crash/102949430</link>
<category>merriton</category>
<category>crash</category>
<category>light plane</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Woman killed, man seriously injured after tree branch falls at Darwin Botanic Gardens]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>A woman has been killed and a man seriously injured after a tree branch fell onto them at Darwin's Botanic Gardens, Northern Territory Police say.</p><p>Authorities closed all entrances to the popular spot, located just north of the Darwin CBD, following the incident.</p><p>Emergency services were called to the scene by a person in the park shortly before 1pm Sunday.</p><p>In a statement released later in the afternoon, NT Police confirmed paramedics had declared a 28-year-old woman dead.</p><p>They said a 33-year-old man suffered serious injuries and had been taken to the Royal Darwin Hospital.</p><p>NT Police were urging the public to avoid the area.</p><p>Multiple police units remained at the Botanic Gardens on Sunday afternoon.</p><p>In a post to social media, Northern Territory Parks and Wildlife said the Botanic Gardens, including the cafe and visitor information centre, would be "closed until further notice".</p><p>It asked people to follow the directions of emergency services.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 06:06:44 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949374</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nt-person-killed-after-tree-falls-at-darwin-botanic-gardens/102949374</link>
<author><![CDATA[Thomas Morgan]]></author>
<category>nt</category>
<category>darwin botanic gardens</category>
<category>tree</category>
<category>death</category>
<category>nt police</category>
<category>police</category>
<category>emergency services</category>
<category>ambulance</category>
<category>st john</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Naked rower going for world record was saved by a cruise ship, heading home to Queensland]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The Brisbane extreme rower who capsized and was rescued by a cruise ship — prematurely ending his year-long world record attempt — will be back on Aussie soil soon.</p><p>Tom Robinson was in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-28/tom-robinson-rowing-rom-vanuatu-pacific-ocean/102914698">the final, "make-or-break leg" of his massive journey</a> when his rowboat was damaged by "a rouge wave" and he was left clinging naked to the hull of the vessel he built.</p><p>The 24-year-old had been attempting to break the record to become the youngest person to row across the Pacific Ocean, leaving Peru almost a year-and-a-half ago and only stopping in the Cook Islands for four months during cyclone season.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/bf0893d277957efdb6d58d68f0292977" alt="A cruise ship rescued Tom Robinson after his boat capsized in the Pacific Ocean.(Supplied)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>A cruise ship rescued Tom Robinson after his boat capsized in the Pacific Ocean.(Supplied)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>"A big wave came out of nowhere and unfortunately I didn't have the hatch closed to the cabin," he <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/holding-on-for-dear-life-aussie-ocean-rower-rescued-by-cruise-ship-describes-shivering-14-hours-stuck-at-sea/2AVGT4WCIVDTDAQTHSGN7RVC6U/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">told the NZ Herald</a>. </p><div><p>"I was sitting inside … so instantly I had to swim out from the flooded cabin, climb on top of the hull, and I activated my [satellite] phone which sent out a distress signal.</p></div><p>"It was really cold and I tied myself on … to the boat and that really helped me because waves were breaking over the boat constantly and I was just sort of holding on for dear life.</p><p>"I held on to the boat for about 14 hours and then … I saw the cruise ship approaching and I knew that I was saved."</p><p>P&O's Pacific Explorer was on a nine-day round-trip from Auckland, with 2,000 passengers aboard, when it received word of the distress beacon from the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.</p><p>The cruise liner made a 200-kilometre detour to pick up the stranded Queenslander.</p><p>Tom has expressed his thanks to the crew and on-board medical staff for their kindness and providing him with clothes and food. </p><div><p>"I didn't have any clothes on when the wave hit the boat — I usually row naked because it stops chafing," he said. </p></div><p>The young explorer said he "was surprisingly calm and collected" during the ordeal, maintaining "the utmost faith that help would arrive". </p><p>"You can't let any doubts creep in because then that becomes a really bad headspace to be in," Tom said. </p><p>"From when I was 14 onwards, I've been dreaming about this journey … and I didn't quite complete it. </p><p>"But that's okay, that's life."</p><h2>'Comedy in the tragedy'</h2><p>Dad Tim Robinson said, while his son "couldn't have been more terrified" as his cabin flooded, the family are now relaxed enough to find the "comedy in the tragedy". </p><div><p>"He had to climb up to the deck of the ship on a rope ladder with nothing on," he said.</p></div><p>"What a way to get rescued, in the nude."</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/56563cf6c356894b3ce17fb338ff2caf" alt="Tom after his arrival in Vanuatu, prior to the rescue.(Supplied)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Tom after his arrival in Vanuatu, prior to the rescue.(Supplied)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tim doesn't think the close call will dampen his son's excitement about exploring the world. </p><p>"A lot of the time it's stressful [watching Tom's travels], but particularly when this sort of event happens," he said.</p><p>"I've just got to say that everybody has been just so wonderful in helping us and helping Tom.</p><div><p>"[He'll] be thinking about the next adventure, don't worry."</p></div><p>Meanwhile mum is preparing a nice, home-cooked dinner to welcome Tom back.</p><h2>What's next for the rower?</h2><p>Tom said his days aboard the cruise ship made for "a very surreal experience" in comparison to rowing — saying he would make the most of it by eating and sleeping as much as possible — but admitted he felt "very bad" for causing the passengers to go off-course for his rescue.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/55b1134e98214c3b371adfad351ee224" alt="Tom with the crew onboard the P&O Cruises vessel." referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Tom with the crew onboard the P&O Cruises vessel.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>"It is a real shame that my life was in danger and I had to put other people out … I'm not proud of that at all," he said.</p><div><p>"I'd just like to say a huge thank you to all the crew on P&O Pacific Explorer whose seamanship and professionalism ensured a safe rescue.</p></div><p>"People from all around the world have really been interested in what I'm doing.</p><p>"I'll get back to Brisbane and take stock of it all and hopefully write a book about it. </p><div><p>"Perhaps one day I'll build another boat and I'll take it to Vanuatu [to] finish that last leg."</p></div></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 05:39:15 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949210</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/tom-robinson-arriving-back-row-boat-flipped-pacific-ocean-rescue/102949210</link>
<author><![CDATA[Gemma Ferguson/Michelle Tapper]]></author>
<category>qld</category>
<category>row boat</category>
<category>boat capsized</category>
<category>Tom Robinson</category>
<category>P&O cruise ship</category>
<category>rescue</category>
<category>world record attempt</category>
<category>sea voyage</category>
<category>Pacific Explorer</category>
<category>Pacific Ocean</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Suns sink Tigers with dramatic after-the-siren-behind as Kangaroos, Bombers score wins]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Gold Coast skipper Tara Bohanna has kicked the winning behind from long range after the final siren to lift the Suns to a dramatic one-point AFLW victory over Richmond.</p><p>The Suns were goalless at quarter-time and trailed by seven points at the long break but came home strongest to win 5.6 (35) to 5.5 (35) at and stay in the top eight.</p><p>The hero was Bohanna, who marked in the dying seconds with scores level at Princes Park and was able to slot a crucial minor score.</p><p>Charlie Rowbottom (31 disposals, five clearances) and Claudia Whitford (25, six) were the shining lights for Gold Coast, while Lucy Single did a successful tagging job on Richmond star Monique Conti (22 possessions).</p><p>Vivien Saad also stood up in defence for the Suns, collecting a match-high nine intercept possessions, including a spectacular flying mark against Tigers captain Katie Brennan.</p><p>Prized Tigers recruit Caitlin Greiser kicked the opening goal of the match after the quarter-time siren.</p><p>Former Sun Courtney Jones struck first to kickstart the second quarter before shoving former teammate Daisy D'arcy to spark a skirmish between the two sides.</p><div></div><p>Needing to return to Melbourne to be close to her younger sister who was diagnosed with thyroid cancer, Jones was traded in a straight swap for Maddy Brancatisano in the offseason.</p><p>Shannon Danckert also faced her former side after being delisted by the Suns last season, with Richmond forced to name the train-on player for the match amid a growing injury crisis.</p><p>Just five points separated the two sides at three-quarter time after back-to-back goals from Alana Gee and Georgia Clayden flipped the script on the Tigers.</p><p>The arm wrestle continued well into the fourth term with both sides lacking composure in front of goal.</p><p>Danckert grabbed a mark just in front of goal to rip the lead back for the Tigers but a rushed behind for the Suns quickly levelled scores before Bohanna sealed the win.</p><h2>Kangaroos climb ladder</h2>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/fed00fd44a62a09a79c48d594b1355a1" alt="Alice O'Loughlin celebrates a goal during the Kangaroos' defeat of the Dockers.(Getty Images: Paul Kane)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Alice O'Loughlin celebrates a goal during the Kangaroos' defeat of the Dockers.(Getty Images: Paul Kane)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ball magnets Ash Riddell and Jasmine Garner fired the Kangaroos into second spot on the ladder with starring roles in a 45-point belting of Fremantle.</p><p>Riddell (37 disposals, six clearances) and Garner (30, three) were dominant figures in the midfield throughout the Kangaroos' 10.6 (66) to 3.3 (21) victory at Fremantle Oval.</p><p>Jenna Bruton (27, four) and Mia King (21, six) also shone, while Tahlia Randall (five goals) and Kate Shierlaw (two) benefited from their teammates' control around the contest.</p><p>Bruton became the 16th player in AFLW history to reach 1,000 career disposals and matched King with a match-high 11 tackles.</p><p>It was a disappointing result for Fremantle, who would have moved into the top eight with a win.</p><p>Defender Emma O'Driscoll (28 disposals) was the Dockers' best in a losing cause, as the home side managed just 0.2 to North's 6.1 after half-time.</p><div></div><p>Aine Tighe gave Fremantle a great start with the opening goal inside two minutes but the Kangaroos controlled proceedings throughout the first half.</p><p>The visitors dominated inside-50s (25-10) and disposals (149-118) to half-time and would have led by more than 10 points if not for wasteful kicking at times in front of goal.</p><p>Shierlaw and Randall led the way with two majors each to that point as Riddell (20 disposals), Garner (19) and Bruton (16) ran amok in the midfield.</p><p>Randall's third goal and another from Tess Craven increased the Kangaroos' lead to 22 points by the final change, with the Dockers held scoreless in the third quarter.</p><p>It got ugly in the last quarter as Shierlaw assisted Randall's fourth goal and blew the margin out to 27 points.</p><p>Randall completed the rout with her fifth major on the final siren.</p><h2>Bombers trump Cats</h2>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/91d638a853ab8bc9970b67a2542772ba" alt="Maddy Prespakis (right) played a key role in the Bombers' defeat of the Cats.(Getty Images/AFL Photos: Graham Denholm)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Maddy Prespakis (right) played a key role in the Bombers' defeat of the Cats.(Getty Images/AFL Photos: Graham Denholm)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Essendon pulled off a sensational come-from-behind win over Geelong, triumphing by 10 points to move itself inside the top eight.</p><p>Left with a sour taste in their mouths after a 20-point loss to Collingwood last round, the Bombers overcame a scoreless start to win 4.5 (29) to 2.7 (19) against the Cats at Warrnambool's Reid Oval on Sunday.</p><p>The sixth-round win provided Essendon midfield star Maddy Prespakis with family bragging rights over younger sister Georgie in their second AFLW match-up.</p><p>Maddy Prespakis also celebrated her 50th match in style with 33 disposals and six clearances as she arm-wrestled her sister (26, 10) for dominance in the midfield.</p><p>The younger Prespakis, in her 25th AFLW appearance, kicked the first goal of the afternoon but was denied by the umpires who argued — without a score review system — the ball was touched.</p><div></div><p>The ever-prolific Chloe Scheer broke through twice to give the Cats a 14-point lead while the hosts were scoreless by quarter-time.</p><p>A desperate Essendon went to work in the second quarter, leading contested possessions 14 to four for the term and generating three of the first four inside-50s.</p><p>With a minute left on the clock and only three behinds on the scoreboard, Amber Clarke snapped the ball towards goal.</p><p>As the ball looked sure to spray across the face, it miraculously bounced backward to slot through the posts and give the Bombers a much-needed six points.</p><p>Bombers co-captain Bonnie Toogood cut the margin to one point to kickstart the second half and bring herself within three goals of 50 career majors.</p><p>With scores level at three quarter-time, Georgia Nanscawen (24 disposals, six clearances) worked diligently to put the ball back in the hands of the Bombers.</p><p>Daria Bannister kicked truly to put Essendon in the lead and was backed by another from Clarke to seal the win.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:41:31 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949268</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/aflw-suns-tigers-bombers-cats-kangaroos-dockers/102949268</link>
<category>essendon</category>
<category>bombers</category>
<category>aflw</category>
<category>geelong</category>
<category>cats</category>
<category>kangaroos</category>
<category>fremantle</category>
<category>dockers</category>
<category>richmond</category>
<category>tigers</category>
<category>gold coast</category>
<category>suns</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Federal government makes new shingles vaccine free for older Australians from November 1]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Older and immunocompromised Australians will be given free access to a new, more effective shingles vaccine from next month. </p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>A new shingles vaccine will be free for older Australians and immunocompromised people from November 1 </li><li><span></span>The jab is more effective than the shingles vaccine currently available on the National Immunisation Program </li><li><span></span>The risk of developing shingles increases with age </li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Nearly five million people will be eligible for the vaccination from November 1, including those aged 65 years and over, First Nations people aged 50 years and over and immunocompromised people aged 18 years and over who are at high risk of catching the shingles virus. </p><p>Shingles, which is also known as herpes zoster, is caused by the reactivation of the same virus that causes chickenpox and presents as a painful, blistering rash on one side of the face or body. </p><p>The virus usually lasts 10 to 15 days but one in five people will develop long-term nerve pain known as post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), which can last for months or even years after the rash has gone away. </p><p>According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare one in three people will develop shingles at some point in their life, with the risk of catching the virus increasing with age, becoming most common in those aged 60 and older. </p><p>Minister for Health and Aged Care Mark Butler said the federal government was investing $826.8 million to provide the Shingrix vaccine under the National Immunisation Program (NIP). </p><p>"I'm told by hospital operators that increasingly there are presentations by older Australians to hospital because of complications driven by shingles," Mr Butler said. </p><p>"This is a very serious public health menace that we can front in Australia. </p><p>"This investment will ensure nearly five million Australians can get free protection from shingles and the very painful nerve damage that it causes."</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/bdabfb326fc1e564bd2dfcf86eca8a75" alt="Mark Butler says the new vaccine is more effective than the one currently available on the National Immunisation Program. (ABC News. )" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Mark Butler says the new vaccine is more effective than the one currently available on the National Immunisation Program. (ABC News. )</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Shingrix vaccine will replace the Zostavax vaccine on the NIP following advice from the independent medicines experts at the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee and the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation. </p><p>Mr Butler said the currently available Zostavax vaccine was "only moderately effective". </p><p>"[Shingrix] is much more effective, about 90 per cent effective in older Australians in preventing shingles against 40 per cent for older Australians with the existing vaccine and is also much longer-lasting," he said. </p><p>"Shingles can be severe, so it's really important that eligible people talk to their GP or pharmacist about getting the shingles vaccine." </p><p>Senior Clinical Immunologist at the Royal Adelaide Hospital Pravin Hissaria urged those eligible to talk to their GP or health practitioner about getting the vaccine as soon as possible. </p><p>"The uptake should be a lot higher because it does not have lots of precautions that needed to be taken with the previously available vaccine," he said. </p><p>"It is to be taken in two doses, preferably two months apart but it can be taken from two to six months apart." </p><p>The Shingrix vaccine, which would otherwise cost up to $560, provides about 10 years of protection against shingles.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:35:02 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949012</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/sa-free-shingles-vaccinations-for-older-australians/102949012</link>
<author><![CDATA[Rebecca Opie]]></author>
<category>shingles</category>
<category>vaccine</category>
<category>nip</category>
<category>national immunisation program</category>
<category>shingrix</category>
<category>zostavax</category>
<category>mark butler</category>
<category>chicken pox</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[How Israel was blindsided by the Hamas attack: the intelligence failure that led to a devastating assault]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>After the Hamas fighters inside Israel have been caught or killed, after the inevitable Israeli ground assault into Gaza, and after the funerals of many Israelis and Palestinians who die in this conflict, there will be another wave of bloodletting.</p><p>It will involve the careers of the intelligence and military officials whose networks failed completely to detect a hint of this attack.</p><p>This was a complex assault, involving scores, if not hundreds, of militants.</p><p>There were multiple breaches of the barrier around the Gaza strip. It was a carefully coordinated operation involving thousands of rockets, explosives to pierce the border fence, ultralights, motorbikes, cars, drones and even a (failed) attack by boat.</p><p>And Israel had no idea that any of it was coming. If it had, the Israeli military would have been prepared. Its soldiers would have been on alert. There would have been checkpoints on the roads. Rapid response forces would have been ready to take on the attackers.</p><p>Instead, the attack early on a Saturday morning caught the military and civilians alike by surprise, at border outposts, at the towns closest to Gaza, on the roads and at an all-night music festival attended by thousands of young Israelis.</p><p>Camera-phone footage shows armed Hamas fighters moving unimpeded inside Israeli military bases, on roads in southern Israel, around Israeli towns, entering homes and bringing hostages back into Gaza.</p><p>Initial reports say they entered as many as 22 separate locations, unchallenged in some cases for six hours. Fighting continued in some places for at least 12 hours after the initial assaults.</p><p>The military's unpreparedness and chaotic response seems to be highlighted by the footage of a lone tank crew being taken hostage: where was the infantry that should have been supporting the armour? Had the crew become isolated from its support, or had it gone out on its own?</p><p>Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth: 2 million people squeezed into a space the size of a handful of suburbs in Sydney's east. It's also one of the most-heavily monitored, constantly watched by satellites and drones and Israeli agents and sources on the ground.</p><p>In such a place, it's extraordinary that not a hint of the planning for this operation was picked up.</p><p>This is a catastrophe for Israel: 300 of its citizens have been killed in the first 24 hours, with more than 1,500 injured. That's the deadliest day for Israel in at least 50 years, ranking with the worst moments of the 1967 Six Day War.</p><p>It's also a disaster for Palestinians: already, at least 234 Palestinians have died, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Many of them are civilians and many more will likely die in the coming days.</p><p>Israel's response inside Gaza has already begun, with air strikes from Israeli jets. A major ground assault is likely, as Israeli forces attempt to bring back some of the hostages now held inside Gaza. The presence of the hostages also complicates any Israeli response: the risk of killing hostages in a rescue operation is high.</p><p>The regional consequences of the Hamas attack and the Israeli response are unknowable. As always in the Middle East, there's the potential for things to get much, much worse.</p><p>Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel is at war, and has promised swift retribution. Just as civilian deaths in Israel harden the attitude of Israelis, more deaths in Gaza will harden the attitude of the Arab world towards Israel. It will damage the tentative recent steps towards normalisation of relations.</p><p>The conflict will also slow progress towards a US-sponsored deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and could kill it.</p><p>So far, there has not been wide-spread fighting in the West Bank, home to 3 million people, occupied by Israel but controlled by the Palestinian Authority.</p><p>There is a risk that this conflict could expand across Israel's northern border: there are already reports of rocket strikes from the Iranian-backed militant group, Hezbollah, which is based in southern Lebanon.</p><p>So far, the attacks and the Israeli response has been relatively minor with no reports of injuries. That could change.</p><p>Israel is responding in force to this attack on its people. But as the fighting continues, deaths of more Palestinian civilians in Gaza will harden attitudes in the region and has the potential to make the Palestinian Authority seem irrelevant, and strengthen the hand of the extremists who lead Hamas. That was surely their aim when they began planning for this day.</p><p>Meanwhile, the blockade of Gaza tightens, with Israel already cutting off electricity, and the lives of Palestinians becomes more difficult, and dangerous.</p></div>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:12:25 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949034</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/israeli-intelligence-caught-by-surprise-hamas-attack/102949034</link>
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<author><![CDATA[Adam Harvey]]></author>
<category>hamas</category>
<category>israel</category>
<category>analysis</category>
<category>gaza</category>
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<category>israeli</category>
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<category></category>
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<title><![CDATA[Is there really a 1 in 6 chance of human extinction this century?]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>In 2020, Oxford-based philosopher Toby Ord published a book called <a href="https://theprecipice.com/">The Precipice</a> about the risk of human extinction. He put the chances of "existential catastrophe" for our species during the next century at one in six.</p><p>It's quite a specific number, and an alarming one. The claim drew <a href="https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/humans-have-1-6-chance-21960557">headlines</a> at the time, and has been influential since — most recently brought up by Australian politician Andrew Leigh in a <a href="https://www.andrewleigh.com/what_s_the_worst_that_could_happen_existential_risk_and_extreme_politics_speech">speech</a> in Melbourne.</p><p>It's hard to disagree with the idea we face troubling prospects over the coming decades, from climate change, nuclear weapons and bio-engineered pathogens (all big issues in my view), to rogue AI and large asteroids (which I would see as less concerning).</p><p>But what about that number? Where does it come from? And what does it really mean?</p><h2>Coin flips and weather forecasts</h2><p>To answer those questions, we have to answer another first: what is probability?</p><p>The most traditional view of probability is called frequentism, and derives its name from its heritage in games of dice and cards. On this view, we know there is a one in six chance a fair die will come up with a three (for example) by observing the frequency of threes in a large number of rolls.</p><p>Or consider the more complicated case of weather forecasts. What does it mean when a metrologist tells us there is a one in six (or 17 per cent) chance of rain tomorrow?</p><p>It's hard to believe the metrologist means us to imagine a large collection of "tomorrows", of which some proportion will experience precipitation. Instead, we need to look at a large number of such predictions and see what happened after them.</p><p>If the forecaster is good at their job, we should see that when they said "one in six chance of rain tomorrow", it did in fact rain on the following day one time in every six.</p><p>So, traditional probability depends on observations and procedure. To calculate it, we need to have a collection of repeated events on which to base our estimate.</p><h2>Can we learn from the Moon?</h2><p>So what does this mean for the probability of human extinction? Well, such an event would be a one-off: after it happened, there would be no room for repeats.</p><p>Instead, we might find some parallel events to learn from. Indeed, in Ord's book, he discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can potentially be examined in light of a history.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/db42eb9cd3139104f2a312650de2ce51" alt="Counting craters on the Moon can give us clues about the risk of asteroid impacts on Earth. (Supplied: NASA)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Counting craters on the Moon can give us clues about the risk of asteroid impacts on Earth. (Supplied: NASA)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, we can estimate the chances of an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth by examining how many such space rocks have hit the Moon over its history. A French scientist named Jean-Marc Salotti <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328722000337">did this in 2022</a>, calculating the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century at around one in 300 million.</p><p>Of course, such an estimate is fraught with uncertainty, but it is backed by something approaching an appropriate frequency calculation. Ord, by contrast, estimates the risk of extinction by asteroid at one in a million, though he does note a considerable degree of uncertainty.</p><h2>A ranking system for outcomes</h2><p>There is another way to think about probability, called Bayesianism after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It focuses less on events themselves and more on what we know, expect and believe about them.</p><p>In very simple terms, we can say Bayesians see probabilities as a kind of ranking system. In this view, the specific number attached to a probability shouldn't be taken directly, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand which outcomes are more and less likely.</p><p>Ord's book, for example, contains a table of potential extinction events and his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these values as relative ranks. Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand), and both are far less likely than extinction from what he calls "unaligned artificial intelligence" (one in 10).</p><p>The difficulty here is that initial estimates of Bayesian probabilities (often called "priors") are rather subjective (for instance, I would rank the chance of AI-based extinction much lower). Traditional Bayesian reasoning moves from "priors" to "posteriors" by again incorporating observational evidence of relevant outcomes to "update" probability values.</p><p>And once again, outcomes relevant to the probability of human extinction are thin on the ground.</p><h2>Subjective estimates</h2><p>There are two ways to think about the accuracy and usefulness of probability calculations: calibration and discrimination.</p><p>Calibration is the correctness of the actual values of the probabilities. We can't determine this without appropriate observational information. Discrimination, on the other hand, simply refers to the relative rankings.</p><p>We don't have a basis to think Ord's values are properly calibrated. Of course, this is not likely to be his intent. He himself indicates they are mostly designed to give "order of magnitude" indications.</p><p>Even so, without any related observational confirmation, most of these estimates simply remain in the subjective domain of prior probabilities.</p><h2>Not well calibrated — but perhaps still useful</h2><p>So what are we to make of "one in six"? Experience suggests most people have a less than perfect understanding of probability (as evidenced by, among other things, the ongoing volume of lottery ticket sales). In this environment, if you're making an argument in public, an estimate of "probability" doesn't necessarily need to be well calibrated — it just needs to have the right sort of psychological impact.</p><p>From this perspective, I'd say "one in six" fits the bill nicely. "One in 100" might feel small enough to ignore, while "one in three" might drive panic or be dismissed as apocalyptic raving.</p><p>As a person concerned about the future, I hope risks like climate change and nuclear proliferation get the attention they deserve. But as a data scientist, I hope the careless use of probability gets left by the wayside and is replaced by widespread education on its true meaning and appropriate usage.</p><p><strong>Steven Stern is Professor of Data Science at Bond University. This piece first appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction-this-century-215054" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Conversation</a>.</strong></p></div>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 03:55:14 GMT</pubDate>
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<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction/102942530</link>
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<title><![CDATA[VCAT sides with residents to scrap hotel development on Ballarat's farming fringes]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Local residents are celebrating after authorities overturned a decision to approve a 111-room hotel on "essential" farmland at the entrance of Ballarat.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>VCAT overturns hotel proposal for farmland on the edge of Ballarat, circumventing council approval</li><li><span></span>Residents say the 'power is in the hands of the people' after self-representing at the tribunal</li><li><span></span>Local resident Kirrily Liddle says the area is protected for farming use, and needs to stay that way despite urban sprawl</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Kirrily Liddle lives 150 metres from the proposed Western Freeway hotel site project in Warrenheip, which a Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) has now rejected. </p><p>Last August, the Ballarat City Council approved the proposal to allow the major development to go ahead despite the area being mainly zoned for farm use.</p><p>Ms Liddle, who was one of the parties that took the decision to the tribunal last year, said the VCAT result was a reflection of the power of the people.</p><div><p>"I'm proud that we stuck to our guns and forced this issue – we knew that it was better to be kept as farmland," Ms Liddle said.</p></div><p>"We really wanted to protect our area from this type of development."</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/b7fa5a6d46c02ca0050eccc1348c66f2" alt="Kirrily Liddle says despite the group being unable to afford legal representation, they worked hard to present the facts for a good outcome. (Supplied: Kirrily Liddle)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Kirrily Liddle says despite the group being unable to afford legal representation, they worked hard to present the facts for a good outcome. (Supplied: Kirrily Liddle)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One section on the western side of the Warrenheip site is zoned for mixed use, but residents expressed concerns that a hotel would cause higher volumes of traffic, which would be dangerous.</p><p>"The roads are terrible, we have two really dangerous intersections," Ms Liddle said.</p><div><p>"My aim is that, any development that happens in the Warrenheip area considers the impacts. I don't want the intersection upgrade to be an afterthought."</p></div><p>The site, next to Ballarat's Mill Markets on Mahers Road, is a 5.5-hectare parcel of land sandwiched between residential properties and farmland to the east, and the ever-growing edges of Ballarat to the west.</p><p>The two-storey residential hotel was approved by council last year with a spa and function centre, a restaurant, and a gin distillery.</p>
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<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/6e8c226c7a502714fb23bc136caf227c" alt="Warrenheip features large potato farms, timber plantations, and livestock ranches. (ABC Ballarat: Laura Mayers)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Warrenheip features large potato farms, timber plantations, and livestock ranches. (ABC Ballarat: Laura Mayers)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Forte Developments was contacted for comment.</p><p>"The scale and intensity of the proposed land use and development is significant for this site," said senior VCAT member, Rachel Naylor.</p><div><p>"The proposal is not compatible with the surrounding land ... The proposal does have impacts on the surrounding land, including unacceptable impacts."</p></div><p>After beginning with mediation sessions 18 months ago, the group of residents fighting the proposal cited concerns about the impact on the agricultural value of the land by way of water, weeds, biosecurity and more. </p><p>Ms Liddle said the edges of the city were still flanked by "essential" farmland, which should not be lost to urban sprawl. </p><p>"The VCAT process is definitely intimidating, but it's definitely worth the process," she said.</p><div><p>" ... |
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<title><![CDATA[Israelis describe 'nightmare' as Hamas gunmen take hostages at music festival and roam the streets]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Stunned Israelis have described seeing bodies in the streets and Hamas fighters roaming outside their homes as they took shelter during an unprecedented attack by the militant group in southern Israel on Saturday.</p><p><strong>WARNING: This story contains images and details some people may find distressing.</strong></p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>Hamas militants attacked settlements in southern Israel for hours on Saturday, taking civilian hostages back to Gaza</li><li><span></span>Thousands of Israelis attending a music festival near Re'im also came under fire, with many killed and some taken captive</li><li><span></span>Hamas says the attack was a response to Israel's continued occupation of the Palestinian territories</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Even the residents of communities near the Gaza Strip, who have grown used to the wail of air-raid sirens, described <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-07/israel-targets-hamas-military-operation-rocket-attacks/102947766">Saturday's ground assault</a> — with militants entering their communities in pick-up trucks, on boats, and by hang-gliders — as a "nightmare" come true.</p><p>Jehan Berman, a 42-year-old man living in the small community of Avshalom near Gaza, said it took eight hours for the Israeli military to arrive in his settlement and start fending off Hamas fighters.</p><div><p>"This was always the nightmare. We told ourselves that one day, the terrorists will come inside here," he said.</p></div><p>Hamas's surprise attack came after weeks of heightened tensions along the Gaza border, and heavy fighting in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.</p><p>Salah Arouri, an exiled Hamas leader, said the attack was a response to "the crimes of the occupation", including Israeli incursions at the al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and the thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.</p><h2>Thousands attacked at music festival</h2><p>A desert rave attended by thousands of Israelis came under attack by Hamas militants who had crossed the border.</p><p>Witnesses told Israeli media that the militants sprayed bullets into the crowd of revellers, who just moments earlier had been dancing at the Nova Festival near the Israeli kibbutz, or settlement, of Re'im.</p><p>"The music stopped and there was a rocket siren," a young woman named Ortal told Israel's N12 News.</p><div><p>"Suddenly, out of nowhere, they started shooting."</p></div><p>Footage posted on social media showed dozens of people running through fields and along a road, escaping militants as gun shots were heard.</p><p>Another video posted to social media showed a couple who attended the festival being captured by militants.</p><p>The man, <a href="https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/378048">identified by his brother as Avinatan Or</a>, is shown being led away on foot by men as his partner, Noa Argamani, is driven away by two men on a motorbike. </p><p>She screams and reaches toward her partner as she is driven away.</p><p>Esther Borochov, who fled the outdoor festival, told Reuters she survived by playing dead in a car after the driver, who had been trying to help her escape, was shot point blank.</p><p>"I couldn't move my legs," she said from hospital.</p><p>"Soldiers came and took us away to the bushes."</p><h2>Footage shows captives taken into Gaza</h2><p>Palestinian militant groups circulated footage on social media showing what they said were captured Israeli soldiers and civilians being driven into Gaza, as well as hostages being held by more fighters inside Israel.</p><p>One video shows a young Israeli woman stumbling out of the boot of a black Jeep, bleeding from the head and with her hands tied behind her back.</p><p>A man waving a gun in the air grabs her by the hair and pushes her into the vehicle's back seat.</p><p>One Associated Press photo shows an abducted elderly Israeli woman being driven into Gaza on a golf cart by Hamas gunmen.</p>
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<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/d340dad8c057916133d470c0b8d655f4" alt="Palestinian militants drive a captured Israeli civilian into the Gaza Strip on Saturday.(AP: Hatem Ali)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Palestinian militants drive a captured Israeli civilian into the Gaza Strip on Saturday.(AP: Hatem Ali)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another shows a woman squeezed between two fighters on a motorcycle.</p><p>AP journalists witnessed four people being taken from the kibbutz of Kfar Aza, including two women.</p><h2>Fighting continued throughout the day</h2><p>In the southern Israeli town of Sderot, one resident reported seeing multiple bodies and bullet-scarred vehicles where groups of Hamas gunmen were still fighting Israeli troops on Saturday afternoon.</p><p>"I went out, I saw loads of bodies of terrorists, civilians, cars shot up. A sea of bodies, inside Sderot along the road, other places, loads of bodies," the resident said.</p><p>Israel's ambulance service said its crews were unable to reach the wounded in towns where fighting was ongoing.</p><p>An ambulance was also attacked, the Magen David Adom medical service said. One crew member was reportedly killed.</p><p>Israeli TV stations carried telephone calls from terrified residents of towns and kibbutz, speaking even as gunmen were trying to break into their shelters.</p><p>A woman identified as Ella said she had barricaded herself in a bomb shelter for hours in the Be'eri kibbutz, where there were reports of 50 Israelis being held hostage by Hamas.</p><p>"We can hear a lot of gunfire, we were told that terrorists are in the dining hall, we can hear a lot of shooting," she told N12 News in a live interview.</p><div><p>"I've lost contact with my family. I know my father has been kidnapped … no-one is telling us what's going on. I don't know if my mother is alive."</p></div><p>In the kibbutz of Nahal Oz, just four kilometres from the Gaza Strip, terrified residents huddling indoors could hear constant gunfire echoing off buildings as firefights continued.</p><p>"With rockets we somehow feel safer, knowing that we have the Iron Dome [missile defence system] and our safe rooms," said Mirjam Reijnen, a 42-year-old volunteer firefighter and mother of three.</p><p>"But knowing that terrorists are walking around communities is a different kind of fear."</p><p><strong>Wires/ABC</strong></p></div>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 12:39:43 GMT</pubDate>
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<title><![CDATA[Dead woman found inside house in Sydney's south, after dead man found in truck parked in driveway]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The bodies of a man and a woman have been found at a home in Sydney's south on Sunday.</p><p>NSW Police were called to the Union Street property in Riverwood just before 2pm, where they found the body of a man in a truck parked in the driveway.</p><p>Officers found the body of the woman after they entered the single-level home.</p><p>Footage from the scene shows the house cordoned off with police tape, as officers and detectives speak to neighbours.</p><p>Forensic specialists can also be seen indoors, with yellow evidence bags placed on the ground. </p>
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<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/9264e73d4ab47e7c4b8dea998642d116" alt="Forensic officers attended the scene at Union Street.(ABC News: Tony Ibrahim)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Forensic officers attended the scene at Union Street.(ABC News: Tony Ibrahim)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jack, who lives across the road, told the ABC he had never spoken to the man and woman, but the situation was very sad.</p><p>"It's very tragic, we see each other but not much talking. He's a truck driver and always came back very late," he said.</p><p>"I don't know what happened, maybe family problems."</p><p>Police say they are investigating whether the incident is domestic-violence related.</p><p>St George detectives along with State Crime Command's Homicide Squad are investigating, and urge anyone with information to call Crime Stoppers.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 08:35:37 GMT</pubDate>
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<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nsw-police-find-two-bodies-man-and-woman-at-riverwood/102949518</link>
<author><![CDATA[Tony Ibrahim]]></author>
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<title><![CDATA[Fraser-McGurk breaks world record in domestic one-day cup match]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>South Australia's Jake Fraser-McGurk has set a world record for the fastest century in a 50-over cricket match, but it was not enough to stop Tasmania defeating the Redbacks by 37 runs in the domestic one-day cup.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>Fraser-McGurk took just 29 balls to reach his century</li><li><span></span>The previous world record was held by South African great AB de Villiers</li><li><span></span>He eventually made 125 in the Redbacks' loss</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>After being sent in to bat at Karen Rolton Oval on Sunday, the Tigers broke the competition record for largest total, with captain Jordan Silk contributing 116 runs of their 9-435.</p><p>Tasmania's effort was 15 runs greater than the 420 South Australia managed against the Cricket Australia XI in 2016.</p><p>But a hot start from Fraser-McGurk put the Redbacks in position to make history themselves.</p><p>Despite never having scored a century in any form before Sunday, Fraser-McGurk only needed 29 balls to reach triple figures, two fewer than South African great AB de Villiers in an ODI in 2015.</p><p>The next-fastest ton by an Australian in a domestic one-day match, scored by Luke Ronchi, was 22 deliveries slower.</p><p>In total, the 21-year-old smacked 23 boundaries, 13 of which were sixes. Prior to Sunday, he had only hit 18 sixes in the 49 matches of his professional career.</p><p>Fraser-McGurk's formidable innings finally came to an end on 125 when he hit Beau Webster's off-spin to mid-wicket and was caught by Jake Weatherald.</p><p>Without him, the Redbacks were never able to fully take advantage of the flat Adelaide deck.</p><p>All-rounder Mitchell Owen was the pick of the bowlers for Tasmania, taking 3-46 including Daniel Drew (52) and Jake Lehmann (35) before they could truly kick on.</p><p>The Redbacks were all out for 398 in the 47th over, which was still the fifth-highest total in domestic one-day cup history and the largest one not to win.</p><p>Earlier, Silk helped steady Tasmania's ship after the loss of openers Caleb Jewell (90) and Weatherald (35) in the space of two overs.</p><p>The 31-year-old showed his maturity by moving slowly through the nervous 90s before launching into party mode after passing triple figures.</p><p>His innings came to a halt in the 45th over, when he attempted to slog McAndrew for a 15th boundary but was caught by Ben Manenti at deep midwicket.</p><p>Silk's century was his first in 57 List A matches.</p><p>The result comes after the Tigers dropped their first two matches and sat bottom of the ladder and leaves the Redbacks chasing their first 50-over win of the summer.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 08:10:39 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949484</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/cricket-jake-fraser-mcgurk-hits-record-breaking-century/102949484</link>
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<title><![CDATA[World Cup live: Australian middle order collapse leaves them on brink against India]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Australia kicks off its 2023 World Cup campaign with a tough clash against host nation India.</p><p>Check out the live scores and stats below.</p><div></div><h2>Scorecard</h2><div></div><h2>Manhattan</h2><div></div><h2>Ball-by-ball</h2><div></div></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:59:58 GMT</pubDate>
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<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/cricket-world-cup-australia-india-scorecentre/102938010</link>
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<title><![CDATA[Collingwood star requests AFL trade to Sydney Swans]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Sydney's bid to bounce back into AFL premiership contention is set to kick up a gear during the trade period as experienced midfielder Taylor Adams seeks a move north.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>The Magpies confirmed Adams's request on Sunday afternoon</li><li><span></span>They describe Adams as a "required player and leader"</li><li><span></span>Adams missed the grand final due to injury</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Adams has made his bombshell trade request official, informing Collingwood he wants to take up a multi-year deal with the Swans.</p><p>The 30-year-old could link up with former Magpies teammate Brodie Grundy in Sydney, with the ruckman poised to join his third club in three years.</p><p>It comes after Melbourne's experiment using Grundy and Max Gawn as ruck partners fell flat this year.</p><p>The Swans have also lured premiership players James Jordon and Joel Hamling, from Melbourne and Fremantle respectively, as free agents.</p><p>But they face a fight with Collingwood over the contracted Adams, who has one year left on his existing deal.</p><p>The Magpies confirmed Adams's trade request in a statement on Sunday, declaring him "a required player and leader".</p><p>"The club will discuss the request with Sydney," the statement read.</p><p>Adams missed Collingwood's grand-final win because of an untimely hamstring injury.</p><p>He has played 175 matches for the Magpies, winning their best-and-fairest award during his 2020 All-Australian campaign.</p><p>Adams started his senior career with 31 matches at GWS.</p><p>His potential move to Sydney shapes as the most high-profile switch of the trade period, which runs from October 9-18, after Melbourne declared Clayton Oliver would not be traded.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:25:47 GMT</pubDate>
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<title><![CDATA[More than 5,000 people have hotel quarantine debt taken from bank account, as NSW premier defends move]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The New South Wales Premier has defended the state's revenue collecting agency withdrawing millions in unpaid hotel quarantine fees from people's bank accounts.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>More than 17,000 people have not paid their hotel quarantine bill</li><li><span></span>The government is owed almost $40 million in unpaid fees</li><li><span></span>Revenue NSW said it attempts to notify people when they have outstanding debts</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Revenue NSW is still chasing the $3,000 fee from more than 17,000 people who have not paid.</p><p>And it has issued more than 5,000 "garnishee orders" to debtors' bank accounts in an attempt to claw back the almost $40 million in outstanding hotel quarantine fees.</p><p>NSW took the bulk of international travellers returning to the country into its hotel quarantine system, which started in March 2020 and was initially free of charge until July 2020.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/67c51bd0b67fb2cbec603ae209dee7dc" alt="The premier said people with overdue fees were warned many times to pay.(ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>The premier said people with overdue fees were warned many times to pay.(ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Premier Chris Minns said people had been warned for "years and years" to pay their bill, and the government needed the money to pay for essential services.</p><p>"Those people were warned many times," Mr Minns said.</p><p>"The system was put in place so that we could allow people to come back into Australia in extremely difficult circumstances, and the quarantine payment issue could be sorted at a later date.</p><p>"Well, that date is today, and unfortunately the government needs that money to run essential services in the state."</p><h2>'Seems like an overreach'</h2><p>Former Victorian resident Justin De Vries said Revenue NSW took $3,000 from his bank account about three weeks ago.</p><p>"It seems like an overreach. You could say it's creepy," Mr De Vries said.</p><p>"I saw several thousand dollars out of my bank account, that's how I knew.</p><div><p>"Perhaps I missed an email, I don't believe I've been contacted. There was no phone call."</p></div>
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<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/481650153c06bf312a8b85b1ae5de205" alt="Mr De Vries returned to Australia in January 2021 and stayed at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney during his isolation period.(ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Mr De Vries returned to Australia in January 2021 and stayed at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney during his isolation period.(ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mr De Vries said he returned from Europe to Australia in January 2021 for "personal reasons" and is now back living in Europe.</p><p>He admitted he had been avoiding the fee, because his two-week isolation at the Marriott Hotel in Sydney was "mistreatment" and the food provided was not hotel standard.</p><p>"It was actually inedible. I begged them to stop giving me bread because I can't eat bread,' he said.</p><p>"I actually quit being vegetarian to be able to eat edible food. It was all mistreatment from beginning to end."</p><p>Mr Minns said people whose accounts had been garnished would have been contacted before the money was taken.</p><div><p>"I've been assured that they had been warned quite a few times, in fact, numerous times before the money is effectively garnished."</p></div><p>A spokesman for Revenue NSW said in a statement it "always attempts communication with the customer to notify them" that an outstanding fee had not been paid.</p><p>"When checking in to a quarantine hotel, individuals were asked to provide contact details," the statement said.</p><p>"They were given a written notice informing them of the requirement to pay quarantine fees. Revenue NSW used these details to pursue payment."</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 07:24:07 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949138</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nsw-premier-defends-garnishee-orders-hotel-quarantine-debts/102949138</link>
<author><![CDATA[Isobel Roe]]></author>
<category>revenue nsw</category>
<category>garnishee orders</category>
<category>hotel quarantine</category>
<category>covid-19</category>
<category>covid measures</category>
<category>chris minns</category>
<category>unpaid bills</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Light plane crash at Merriton in regional SA with two people on board]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>A light aircraft has crashed in South Australia's mid-north with two men on board. </p><p>South Australia Police said emergency services were called to Mumfords Road at Merriton just after 4pm this afternoon following reports a plane had crashed into a field. </p><p>They said two men on board suffered significant burns. </p><p>The incident is not connected to the Jamestown Air Spectacular which was on today. </p><p>Major crash investigators are attending the scene. </p><p>Police are urging the public to avoid the area if possible as there are road closures in place. </p>
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<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/19f72bdc816b4d94370ea2a27374c292" alt="Fire from the crash burned through a paddock. (ABC News)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Fire from the crash burned through a paddock. (ABC News)</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 06:48:58 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949430</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/sa-merriton-light-plane-crash/102949430</link>
<category>merriton</category>
<category>crash</category>
<category>light plane</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Woman killed, man seriously injured after tree branch falls at Darwin Botanic Gardens]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>A woman has been killed and a man seriously injured after a tree branch fell onto them at Darwin's Botanic Gardens, Northern Territory Police say.</p><p>Authorities closed all entrances to the popular spot, located just north of the Darwin CBD, following the incident.</p><p>Emergency services were called to the scene by a person in the park shortly before 1pm Sunday.</p><p>In a statement released later in the afternoon, NT Police confirmed paramedics had declared a 28-year-old woman dead.</p><p>They said a 33-year-old man suffered serious injuries and had been taken to the Royal Darwin Hospital.</p><p>NT Police were urging the public to avoid the area.</p><p>Multiple police units remained at the Botanic Gardens on Sunday afternoon.</p><p>In a post to social media, Northern Territory Parks and Wildlife said the Botanic Gardens, including the cafe and visitor information centre, would be "closed until further notice".</p><p>It asked people to follow the directions of emergency services.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 06:06:44 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949374</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/nt-person-killed-after-tree-falls-at-darwin-botanic-gardens/102949374</link>
<author><![CDATA[Thomas Morgan]]></author>
<category>nt</category>
<category>darwin botanic gardens</category>
<category>tree</category>
<category>death</category>
<category>nt police</category>
<category>police</category>
<category>emergency services</category>
<category>ambulance</category>
<category>st john</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Naked rower going for world record was saved by a cruise ship, heading home to Queensland]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>The Brisbane extreme rower who capsized and was rescued by a cruise ship — prematurely ending his year-long world record attempt — will be back on Aussie soil soon.</p><p>Tom Robinson was in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-28/tom-robinson-rowing-rom-vanuatu-pacific-ocean/102914698">the final, "make-or-break leg" of his massive journey</a> when his rowboat was damaged by "a rouge wave" and he was left clinging naked to the hull of the vessel he built.</p><p>The 24-year-old had been attempting to break the record to become the youngest person to row across the Pacific Ocean, leaving Peru almost a year-and-a-half ago and only stopping in the Cook Islands for four months during cyclone season.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/bf0893d277957efdb6d58d68f0292977" alt="A cruise ship rescued Tom Robinson after his boat capsized in the Pacific Ocean.(Supplied)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>A cruise ship rescued Tom Robinson after his boat capsized in the Pacific Ocean.(Supplied)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>"A big wave came out of nowhere and unfortunately I didn't have the hatch closed to the cabin," he <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/holding-on-for-dear-life-aussie-ocean-rower-rescued-by-cruise-ship-describes-shivering-14-hours-stuck-at-sea/2AVGT4WCIVDTDAQTHSGN7RVC6U/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">told the NZ Herald</a>. </p><div><p>"I was sitting inside … so instantly I had to swim out from the flooded cabin, climb on top of the hull, and I activated my [satellite] phone which sent out a distress signal.</p></div><p>"It was really cold and I tied myself on … to the boat and that really helped me because waves were breaking over the boat constantly and I was just sort of holding on for dear life.</p><p>"I held on to the boat for about 14 hours and then … I saw the cruise ship approaching and I knew that I was saved."</p><p>P&O's Pacific Explorer was on a nine-day round-trip from Auckland, with 2,000 passengers aboard, when it received word of the distress beacon from the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.</p><p>The cruise liner made a 200-kilometre detour to pick up the stranded Queenslander.</p><p>Tom has expressed his thanks to the crew and on-board medical staff for their kindness and providing him with clothes and food. </p><div><p>"I didn't have any clothes on when the wave hit the boat — I usually row naked because it stops chafing," he said. </p></div><p>The young explorer said he "was surprisingly calm and collected" during the ordeal, maintaining "the utmost faith that help would arrive". </p><p>"You can't let any doubts creep in because then that becomes a really bad headspace to be in," Tom said. </p><p>"From when I was 14 onwards, I've been dreaming about this journey … and I didn't quite complete it. </p><p>"But that's okay, that's life."</p><h2>'Comedy in the tragedy'</h2><p>Dad Tim Robinson said, while his son "couldn't have been more terrified" as his cabin flooded, the family are now relaxed enough to find the "comedy in the tragedy". </p><div><p>"He had to climb up to the deck of the ship on a rope ladder with nothing on," he said.</p></div><p>"What a way to get rescued, in the nude."</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/56563cf6c356894b3ce17fb338ff2caf" alt="Tom after his arrival in Vanuatu, prior to the rescue.(Supplied)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Tom after his arrival in Vanuatu, prior to the rescue.(Supplied)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tim doesn't think the close call will dampen his son's excitement about exploring the world. </p><p>"A lot of the time it's stressful [watching Tom's travels], but particularly when this sort of event happens," he said.</p><p>"I've just got to say that everybody has been just so wonderful in helping us and helping Tom.</p><div><p>"[He'll] be thinking about the next adventure, don't worry."</p></div><p>Meanwhile mum is preparing a nice, home-cooked dinner to welcome Tom back.</p><h2>What's next for the rower?</h2><p>Tom said his days aboard the cruise ship made for "a very surreal experience" in comparison to rowing — saying he would make the most of it by eating and sleeping as much as possible — but admitted he felt "very bad" for causing the passengers to go off-course for his rescue.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/55b1134e98214c3b371adfad351ee224" alt="Tom with the crew onboard the P&O Cruises vessel." referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Tom with the crew onboard the P&O Cruises vessel.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>"It is a real shame that my life was in danger and I had to put other people out … I'm not proud of that at all," he said.</p><div><p>"I'd just like to say a huge thank you to all the crew on P&O Pacific Explorer whose seamanship and professionalism ensured a safe rescue.</p></div><p>"People from all around the world have really been interested in what I'm doing.</p><p>"I'll get back to Brisbane and take stock of it all and hopefully write a book about it. </p><div><p>"Perhaps one day I'll build another boat and I'll take it to Vanuatu [to] finish that last leg."</p></div></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 05:39:15 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949210</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/tom-robinson-arriving-back-row-boat-flipped-pacific-ocean-rescue/102949210</link>
<author><![CDATA[Gemma Ferguson/Michelle Tapper]]></author>
<category>qld</category>
<category>row boat</category>
<category>boat capsized</category>
<category>Tom Robinson</category>
<category>P&O cruise ship</category>
<category>rescue</category>
<category>world record attempt</category>
<category>sea voyage</category>
<category>Pacific Explorer</category>
<category>Pacific Ocean</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Suns sink Tigers with dramatic after-the-siren-behind as Kangaroos, Bombers score wins]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Gold Coast skipper Tara Bohanna has kicked the winning behind from long range after the final siren to lift the Suns to a dramatic one-point AFLW victory over Richmond.</p><p>The Suns were goalless at quarter-time and trailed by seven points at the long break but came home strongest to win 5.6 (35) to 5.5 (35) at and stay in the top eight.</p><p>The hero was Bohanna, who marked in the dying seconds with scores level at Princes Park and was able to slot a crucial minor score.</p><p>Charlie Rowbottom (31 disposals, five clearances) and Claudia Whitford (25, six) were the shining lights for Gold Coast, while Lucy Single did a successful tagging job on Richmond star Monique Conti (22 possessions).</p><p>Vivien Saad also stood up in defence for the Suns, collecting a match-high nine intercept possessions, including a spectacular flying mark against Tigers captain Katie Brennan.</p><p>Prized Tigers recruit Caitlin Greiser kicked the opening goal of the match after the quarter-time siren.</p><p>Former Sun Courtney Jones struck first to kickstart the second quarter before shoving former teammate Daisy D'arcy to spark a skirmish between the two sides.</p><div></div><p>Needing to return to Melbourne to be close to her younger sister who was diagnosed with thyroid cancer, Jones was traded in a straight swap for Maddy Brancatisano in the offseason.</p><p>Shannon Danckert also faced her former side after being delisted by the Suns last season, with Richmond forced to name the train-on player for the match amid a growing injury crisis.</p><p>Just five points separated the two sides at three-quarter time after back-to-back goals from Alana Gee and Georgia Clayden flipped the script on the Tigers.</p><p>The arm wrestle continued well into the fourth term with both sides lacking composure in front of goal.</p><p>Danckert grabbed a mark just in front of goal to rip the lead back for the Tigers but a rushed behind for the Suns quickly levelled scores before Bohanna sealed the win.</p><h2>Kangaroos climb ladder</h2>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/fed00fd44a62a09a79c48d594b1355a1" alt="Alice O'Loughlin celebrates a goal during the Kangaroos' defeat of the Dockers.(Getty Images: Paul Kane)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Alice O'Loughlin celebrates a goal during the Kangaroos' defeat of the Dockers.(Getty Images: Paul Kane)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ball magnets Ash Riddell and Jasmine Garner fired the Kangaroos into second spot on the ladder with starring roles in a 45-point belting of Fremantle.</p><p>Riddell (37 disposals, six clearances) and Garner (30, three) were dominant figures in the midfield throughout the Kangaroos' 10.6 (66) to 3.3 (21) victory at Fremantle Oval.</p><p>Jenna Bruton (27, four) and Mia King (21, six) also shone, while Tahlia Randall (five goals) and Kate Shierlaw (two) benefited from their teammates' control around the contest.</p><p>Bruton became the 16th player in AFLW history to reach 1,000 career disposals and matched King with a match-high 11 tackles.</p><p>It was a disappointing result for Fremantle, who would have moved into the top eight with a win.</p><p>Defender Emma O'Driscoll (28 disposals) was the Dockers' best in a losing cause, as the home side managed just 0.2 to North's 6.1 after half-time.</p><div></div><p>Aine Tighe gave Fremantle a great start with the opening goal inside two minutes but the Kangaroos controlled proceedings throughout the first half.</p><p>The visitors dominated inside-50s (25-10) and disposals (149-118) to half-time and would have led by more than 10 points if not for wasteful kicking at times in front of goal.</p><p>Shierlaw and Randall led the way with two majors each to that point as Riddell (20 disposals), Garner (19) and Bruton (16) ran amok in the midfield.</p><p>Randall's third goal and another from Tess Craven increased the Kangaroos' lead to 22 points by the final change, with the Dockers held scoreless in the third quarter.</p><p>It got ugly in the last quarter as Shierlaw assisted Randall's fourth goal and blew the margin out to 27 points.</p><p>Randall completed the rout with her fifth major on the final siren.</p><h2>Bombers trump Cats</h2>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/91d638a853ab8bc9970b67a2542772ba" alt="Maddy Prespakis (right) played a key role in the Bombers' defeat of the Cats.(Getty Images/AFL Photos: Graham Denholm)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Maddy Prespakis (right) played a key role in the Bombers' defeat of the Cats.(Getty Images/AFL Photos: Graham Denholm)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Essendon pulled off a sensational come-from-behind win over Geelong, triumphing by 10 points to move itself inside the top eight.</p><p>Left with a sour taste in their mouths after a 20-point loss to Collingwood last round, the Bombers overcame a scoreless start to win 4.5 (29) to 2.7 (19) against the Cats at Warrnambool's Reid Oval on Sunday.</p><p>The sixth-round win provided Essendon midfield star Maddy Prespakis with family bragging rights over younger sister Georgie in their second AFLW match-up.</p><p>Maddy Prespakis also celebrated her 50th match in style with 33 disposals and six clearances as she arm-wrestled her sister (26, 10) for dominance in the midfield.</p><p>The younger Prespakis, in her 25th AFLW appearance, kicked the first goal of the afternoon but was denied by the umpires who argued — without a score review system — the ball was touched.</p><div></div><p>The ever-prolific Chloe Scheer broke through twice to give the Cats a 14-point lead while the hosts were scoreless by quarter-time.</p><p>A desperate Essendon went to work in the second quarter, leading contested possessions 14 to four for the term and generating three of the first four inside-50s.</p><p>With a minute left on the clock and only three behinds on the scoreboard, Amber Clarke snapped the ball towards goal.</p><p>As the ball looked sure to spray across the face, it miraculously bounced backward to slot through the posts and give the Bombers a much-needed six points.</p><p>Bombers co-captain Bonnie Toogood cut the margin to one point to kickstart the second half and bring herself within three goals of 50 career majors.</p><p>With scores level at three quarter-time, Georgia Nanscawen (24 disposals, six clearances) worked diligently to put the ball back in the hands of the Bombers.</p><p>Daria Bannister kicked truly to put Essendon in the lead and was backed by another from Clarke to seal the win.</p><p><strong>AAP</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:41:31 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949268</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/aflw-suns-tigers-bombers-cats-kangaroos-dockers/102949268</link>
<category>essendon</category>
<category>bombers</category>
<category>aflw</category>
<category>geelong</category>
<category>cats</category>
<category>kangaroos</category>
<category>fremantle</category>
<category>dockers</category>
<category>richmond</category>
<category>tigers</category>
<category>gold coast</category>
<category>suns</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Federal government makes new shingles vaccine free for older Australians from November 1]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Older and immunocompromised Australians will be given free access to a new, more effective shingles vaccine from next month. </p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>A new shingles vaccine will be free for older Australians and immunocompromised people from November 1 </li><li><span></span>The jab is more effective than the shingles vaccine currently available on the National Immunisation Program </li><li><span></span>The risk of developing shingles increases with age </li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Nearly five million people will be eligible for the vaccination from November 1, including those aged 65 years and over, First Nations people aged 50 years and over and immunocompromised people aged 18 years and over who are at high risk of catching the shingles virus. </p><p>Shingles, which is also known as herpes zoster, is caused by the reactivation of the same virus that causes chickenpox and presents as a painful, blistering rash on one side of the face or body. </p><p>The virus usually lasts 10 to 15 days but one in five people will develop long-term nerve pain known as post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), which can last for months or even years after the rash has gone away. </p><p>According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare one in three people will develop shingles at some point in their life, with the risk of catching the virus increasing with age, becoming most common in those aged 60 and older. </p><p>Minister for Health and Aged Care Mark Butler said the federal government was investing $826.8 million to provide the Shingrix vaccine under the National Immunisation Program (NIP). </p><p>"I'm told by hospital operators that increasingly there are presentations by older Australians to hospital because of complications driven by shingles," Mr Butler said. </p><p>"This is a very serious public health menace that we can front in Australia. </p><p>"This investment will ensure nearly five million Australians can get free protection from shingles and the very painful nerve damage that it causes."</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/bdabfb326fc1e564bd2dfcf86eca8a75" alt="Mark Butler says the new vaccine is more effective than the one currently available on the National Immunisation Program. (ABC News. )" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Mark Butler says the new vaccine is more effective than the one currently available on the National Immunisation Program. (ABC News. )</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Shingrix vaccine will replace the Zostavax vaccine on the NIP following advice from the independent medicines experts at the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee and the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation. </p><p>Mr Butler said the currently available Zostavax vaccine was "only moderately effective". </p><p>"[Shingrix] is much more effective, about 90 per cent effective in older Australians in preventing shingles against 40 per cent for older Australians with the existing vaccine and is also much longer-lasting," he said. </p><p>"Shingles can be severe, so it's really important that eligible people talk to their GP or pharmacist about getting the shingles vaccine." </p><p>Senior Clinical Immunologist at the Royal Adelaide Hospital Pravin Hissaria urged those eligible to talk to their GP or health practitioner about getting the vaccine as soon as possible. </p><p>"The uptake should be a lot higher because it does not have lots of precautions that needed to be taken with the previously available vaccine," he said. </p><p>"It is to be taken in two doses, preferably two months apart but it can be taken from two to six months apart." </p><p>The Shingrix vaccine, which would otherwise cost up to $560, provides about 10 years of protection against shingles.</p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:35:02 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949012</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/sa-free-shingles-vaccinations-for-older-australians/102949012</link>
<author><![CDATA[Rebecca Opie]]></author>
<category>shingles</category>
<category>vaccine</category>
<category>nip</category>
<category>national immunisation program</category>
<category>shingrix</category>
<category>zostavax</category>
<category>mark butler</category>
<category>chicken pox</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[How Israel was blindsided by the Hamas attack: the intelligence failure that led to a devastating assault]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>After the Hamas fighters inside Israel have been caught or killed, after the inevitable Israeli ground assault into Gaza, and after the funerals of many Israelis and Palestinians who die in this conflict, there will be another wave of bloodletting.</p><p>It will involve the careers of the intelligence and military officials whose networks failed completely to detect a hint of this attack.</p><p>This was a complex assault, involving scores, if not hundreds, of militants.</p><p>There were multiple breaches of the barrier around the Gaza strip. It was a carefully coordinated operation involving thousands of rockets, explosives to pierce the border fence, ultralights, motorbikes, cars, drones and even a (failed) attack by boat.</p><p>And Israel had no idea that any of it was coming. If it had, the Israeli military would have been prepared. Its soldiers would have been on alert. There would have been checkpoints on the roads. Rapid response forces would have been ready to take on the attackers.</p><p>Instead, the attack early on a Saturday morning caught the military and civilians alike by surprise, at border outposts, at the towns closest to Gaza, on the roads and at an all-night music festival attended by thousands of young Israelis.</p><p>Camera-phone footage shows armed Hamas fighters moving unimpeded inside Israeli military bases, on roads in southern Israel, around Israeli towns, entering homes and bringing hostages back into Gaza.</p><p>Initial reports say they entered as many as 22 separate locations, unchallenged in some cases for six hours. Fighting continued in some places for at least 12 hours after the initial assaults.</p><p>The military's unpreparedness and chaotic response seems to be highlighted by the footage of a lone tank crew being taken hostage: where was the infantry that should have been supporting the armour? Had the crew become isolated from its support, or had it gone out on its own?</p><p>Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth: 2 million people squeezed into a space the size of a handful of suburbs in Sydney's east. It's also one of the most-heavily monitored, constantly watched by satellites and drones and Israeli agents and sources on the ground.</p><p>In such a place, it's extraordinary that not a hint of the planning for this operation was picked up.</p><p>This is a catastrophe for Israel: 300 of its citizens have been killed in the first 24 hours, with more than 1,500 injured. That's the deadliest day for Israel in at least 50 years, ranking with the worst moments of the 1967 Six Day War.</p><p>It's also a disaster for Palestinians: already, at least 234 Palestinians have died, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Many of them are civilians and many more will likely die in the coming days.</p><p>Israel's response inside Gaza has already begun, with air strikes from Israeli jets. A major ground assault is likely, as Israeli forces attempt to bring back some of the hostages now held inside Gaza. The presence of the hostages also complicates any Israeli response: the risk of killing hostages in a rescue operation is high.</p><p>The regional consequences of the Hamas attack and the Israeli response are unknowable. As always in the Middle East, there's the potential for things to get much, much worse.</p><p>Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel is at war, and has promised swift retribution. Just as civilian deaths in Israel harden the attitude of Israelis, more deaths in Gaza will harden the attitude of the Arab world towards Israel. It will damage the tentative recent steps towards normalisation of relations.</p><p>The conflict will also slow progress towards a US-sponsored deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and could kill it.</p><p>So far, there has not been wide-spread fighting in the West Bank, home to 3 million people, occupied by Israel but controlled by the Palestinian Authority.</p><p>There is a risk that this conflict could expand across Israel's northern border: there are already reports of rocket strikes from the Iranian-backed militant group, Hezbollah, which is based in southern Lebanon.</p><p>So far, the attacks and the Israeli response has been relatively minor with no reports of injuries. That could change.</p><p>Israel is responding in force to this attack on its people. But as the fighting continues, deaths of more Palestinian civilians in Gaza will harden attitudes in the region and has the potential to make the Palestinian Authority seem irrelevant, and strengthen the hand of the extremists who lead Hamas. That was surely their aim when they began planning for this day.</p><p>Meanwhile, the blockade of Gaza tightens, with Israel already cutting off electricity, and the lives of Palestinians becomes more difficult, and dangerous.</p></div>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 04:12:25 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102949034</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/israeli-intelligence-caught-by-surprise-hamas-attack/102949034</link>
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<author><![CDATA[Adam Harvey]]></author>
<category>hamas</category>
<category>israel</category>
<category>analysis</category>
<category>gaza</category>
<category>palestinians</category>
<category>israeli</category>
<category>gaza strip</category>
<category>israeli defence force</category>
<category>idf</category>
<category>attacks</category>
<category>civilians</category>
<category>music festival</category>
<category></category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Is there really a 1 in 6 chance of human extinction this century?]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>In 2020, Oxford-based philosopher Toby Ord published a book called <a href="https://theprecipice.com/">The Precipice</a> about the risk of human extinction. He put the chances of "existential catastrophe" for our species during the next century at one in six.</p><p>It's quite a specific number, and an alarming one. The claim drew <a href="https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/humans-have-1-6-chance-21960557">headlines</a> at the time, and has been influential since — most recently brought up by Australian politician Andrew Leigh in a <a href="https://www.andrewleigh.com/what_s_the_worst_that_could_happen_existential_risk_and_extreme_politics_speech">speech</a> in Melbourne.</p><p>It's hard to disagree with the idea we face troubling prospects over the coming decades, from climate change, nuclear weapons and bio-engineered pathogens (all big issues in my view), to rogue AI and large asteroids (which I would see as less concerning).</p><p>But what about that number? Where does it come from? And what does it really mean?</p><h2>Coin flips and weather forecasts</h2><p>To answer those questions, we have to answer another first: what is probability?</p><p>The most traditional view of probability is called frequentism, and derives its name from its heritage in games of dice and cards. On this view, we know there is a one in six chance a fair die will come up with a three (for example) by observing the frequency of threes in a large number of rolls.</p><p>Or consider the more complicated case of weather forecasts. What does it mean when a metrologist tells us there is a one in six (or 17 per cent) chance of rain tomorrow?</p><p>It's hard to believe the metrologist means us to imagine a large collection of "tomorrows", of which some proportion will experience precipitation. Instead, we need to look at a large number of such predictions and see what happened after them.</p><p>If the forecaster is good at their job, we should see that when they said "one in six chance of rain tomorrow", it did in fact rain on the following day one time in every six.</p><p>So, traditional probability depends on observations and procedure. To calculate it, we need to have a collection of repeated events on which to base our estimate.</p><h2>Can we learn from the Moon?</h2><p>So what does this mean for the probability of human extinction? Well, such an event would be a one-off: after it happened, there would be no room for repeats.</p><p>Instead, we might find some parallel events to learn from. Indeed, in Ord's book, he discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can potentially be examined in light of a history.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/db42eb9cd3139104f2a312650de2ce51" alt="Counting craters on the Moon can give us clues about the risk of asteroid impacts on Earth. (Supplied: NASA)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Counting craters on the Moon can give us clues about the risk of asteroid impacts on Earth. (Supplied: NASA)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, we can estimate the chances of an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth by examining how many such space rocks have hit the Moon over its history. A French scientist named Jean-Marc Salotti <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328722000337">did this in 2022</a>, calculating the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century at around one in 300 million.</p><p>Of course, such an estimate is fraught with uncertainty, but it is backed by something approaching an appropriate frequency calculation. Ord, by contrast, estimates the risk of extinction by asteroid at one in a million, though he does note a considerable degree of uncertainty.</p><h2>A ranking system for outcomes</h2><p>There is another way to think about probability, called Bayesianism after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It focuses less on events themselves and more on what we know, expect and believe about them.</p><p>In very simple terms, we can say Bayesians see probabilities as a kind of ranking system. In this view, the specific number attached to a probability shouldn't be taken directly, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand which outcomes are more and less likely.</p><p>Ord's book, for example, contains a table of potential extinction events and his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these values as relative ranks. Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand), and both are far less likely than extinction from what he calls "unaligned artificial intelligence" (one in 10).</p><p>The difficulty here is that initial estimates of Bayesian probabilities (often called "priors") are rather subjective (for instance, I would rank the chance of AI-based extinction much lower). Traditional Bayesian reasoning moves from "priors" to "posteriors" by again incorporating observational evidence of relevant outcomes to "update" probability values.</p><p>And once again, outcomes relevant to the probability of human extinction are thin on the ground.</p><h2>Subjective estimates</h2><p>There are two ways to think about the accuracy and usefulness of probability calculations: calibration and discrimination.</p><p>Calibration is the correctness of the actual values of the probabilities. We can't determine this without appropriate observational information. Discrimination, on the other hand, simply refers to the relative rankings.</p><p>We don't have a basis to think Ord's values are properly calibrated. Of course, this is not likely to be his intent. He himself indicates they are mostly designed to give "order of magnitude" indications.</p><p>Even so, without any related observational confirmation, most of these estimates simply remain in the subjective domain of prior probabilities.</p><h2>Not well calibrated — but perhaps still useful</h2><p>So what are we to make of "one in six"? Experience suggests most people have a less than perfect understanding of probability (as evidenced by, among other things, the ongoing volume of lottery ticket sales). In this environment, if you're making an argument in public, an estimate of "probability" doesn't necessarily need to be well calibrated — it just needs to have the right sort of psychological impact.</p><p>From this perspective, I'd say "one in six" fits the bill nicely. "One in 100" might feel small enough to ignore, while "one in three" might drive panic or be dismissed as apocalyptic raving.</p><p>As a person concerned about the future, I hope risks like climate change and nuclear proliferation get the attention they deserve. But as a data scientist, I hope the careless use of probability gets left by the wayside and is replaced by widespread education on its true meaning and appropriate usage.</p><p><strong>Steven Stern is Professor of Data Science at Bond University. This piece first appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction-this-century-215054" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Conversation</a>.</strong></p></div>
]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 08 Oct 2023 03:55:14 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">abc-102942530</guid>
<link>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-08/is-there-really-a-1-in-6-chance-of-human-extinction/102942530</link>
<category>extinction</category>
<category>asteroids</category>
<category>end of the world</category>
<category>human extinction</category>
<category>1 in 6 chance of extinction</category>
<category>toby Ord</category>
<category>probability</category>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[VCAT sides with residents to scrap hotel development on Ballarat's farming fringes]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<div><p>Local residents are celebrating after authorities overturned a decision to approve a 111-room hotel on "essential" farmland at the entrance of Ballarat.</p><div><section aria-label="key points"><h2>Key points:</h2><ul><li><span></span>VCAT overturns hotel proposal for farmland on the edge of Ballarat, circumventing council approval</li><li><span></span>Residents say the 'power is in the hands of the people' after self-representing at the tribunal</li><li><span></span>Local resident Kirrily Liddle says the area is protected for farming use, and needs to stay that way despite urban sprawl</li></ul></section><div></div></div><p>Kirrily Liddle lives 150 metres from the proposed Western Freeway hotel site project in Warrenheip, which a Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) has now rejected. </p><p>Last August, the Ballarat City Council approved the proposal to allow the major development to go ahead despite the area being mainly zoned for farm use.</p><p>Ms Liddle, who was one of the parties that took the decision to the tribunal last year, said the VCAT result was a reflection of the power of the people.</p><div><p>"I'm proud that we stuck to our guns and forced this issue – we knew that it was better to be kept as farmland," Ms Liddle said.</p></div><p>"We really wanted to protect our area from this type of development."</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/b7fa5a6d46c02ca0050eccc1348c66f2" alt="Kirrily Liddle says despite the group being unable to afford legal representation, they worked hard to present the facts for a good outcome. (Supplied: Kirrily Liddle)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Kirrily Liddle says despite the group being unable to afford legal representation, they worked hard to present the facts for a good outcome. (Supplied: Kirrily Liddle)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One section on the western side of the Warrenheip site is zoned for mixed use, but residents expressed concerns that a hotel would cause higher volumes of traffic, which would be dangerous.</p><p>"The roads are terrible, we have two really dangerous intersections," Ms Liddle said.</p><div><p>"My aim is that, any development that happens in the Warrenheip area considers the impacts. I don't want the intersection upgrade to be an afterthought."</p></div><p>The site, next to Ballarat's Mill Markets on Mahers Road, is a 5.5-hectare parcel of land sandwiched between residential properties and farmland to the east, and the ever-growing edges of Ballarat to the west.</p><p>The two-storey residential hotel was approved by council last year with a spa and function centre, a restaurant, and a gin distillery.</p>
<figure>
<img src="https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/6e8c226c7a502714fb23bc136caf227c" alt="Warrenheip features large potato farms, timber plantations, and livestock ranches. (ABC Ballarat: Laura Mayers)" referrerpolicy="no-referrer">
<figcaption>Warrenheip features large potato farms, timber plantations, and livestock ranches. (ABC Ballarat: Laura Mayers)</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Forte Developments was contacted for comment.</p><p>"The scale and intensity of the proposed land use and development is significant for this site," said senior VCAT member, Rachel Naylor.</p><div><p>"The proposal is not compatible with the surrounding land ... The proposal does have impacts on the surrounding land, including unacceptable impacts."</p></div><p>After beginning with mediation sessions 18 months ago, the group of residents fighting the proposal cited concerns about the impact on the agricultural value of the land by way of water, weeds, biosecurity and more. </p><p>Ms Liddle said the edges of the city were still flanked by "essential" farmland, which should not be lost to urban sprawl. </p><p>"The VCAT process is definitely intimidating, but it's definitely worth the process," she said.</p><div><p>"We didn |
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