Merge pull request #909 from PolicyEngine/econ-assumptions

Add economic assumptions
PolicyEngine · Jul 26, 2024 · 526d1f5 · 526d1f5
2 parents d5d4d7f + f5b9cb6
commit 526d1f5
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diff --git a/changelog_entry.yaml b/changelog_entry.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+- bump: minor
+  changes:
+    changed:
+    - Simplified uprating indices by moving OBR parameters to gov folder.
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/data/datasets/frs/frs.py b/policyengine_uk/data/datasets/frs/frs.py
@@ -139,7 +139,7 @@ def generate(self):
     RawFRS_2022_23,
     "frs_2022",
     "FRS 2022-23",
-    new_url="release://policyengine/non-public-microdata/uk-2024-july/raw_frs_2022.h5",
+    new_url="release://policyengine/non-public-microdata/uk-2024-july/frs_2022.h5",
 )
 
 

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/energy_bills.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/energy_bills.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+description: Raise energy spending by this percentage.
+values:
+  2000-01-01: 0
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  label: Change to energy spending
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/gdp_per_capita.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/gdp_per_capita.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+description: Raise all market incomes by this percentage.
+values:
+  2000-01-01: 0
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  label: Change to GDP per capita
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/interest_rates.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/interest_rates.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+description: Raise the interest rate on mortgages by this percentage.
+values:
+  2000-01-01: 0
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  label: Change to interest rates
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/rent.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/rent.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+description: Raise rental expenses by this percentage.
+values:
+  2000-01-01: 0
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  label: Change to rents
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/transport.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/transport.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+description: Raise transport expenses by this percentage.
+values:
+  2000-01-01: 0
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  label: Change to transport spending
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+description: OBR forecast for average earnings (2008 = 100%)
+values:
+  2008-01-01: 100.0
+  2009-01-01: 101.8
+  2010-01-01: 102.7
+  2011-01-01: 104.3
+  2012-01-01: 105.0
+  2013-01-01: 110.0
+  2014-01-01: 110.7
+  2015-01-01: 112.9
+  2016-01-01: 115.6
+  2017-01-01: 119.3
+  2018-01-01: 122.4
+  2019-01-01: 125.4
+  2020-01-01: 125.7
+  2021-01-01: 133.3
+  2022-01-01: 140.9
+  2023-01-01: 150.0
+  2024-01-01: 154.6
+  2025-01-01: 157.5
+  2026-01-01: 160.9
+  2027-01-01: 164.6
+  2028-01-01: 168.9
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  reference:
+    - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
+      href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2024/
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+description: OBR forecast for CPI
+values:
+  2014-01-01: 100
+  2015-01-01: 100.1
+  2016-01-01: 101.2
+  2017-01-01: 104.1
+  2018-01-01: 106.4
+  2019-01-01: 108.3
+  2020-01-01: 108.9
+  2021-01-01: 113.2
+  2022-01-01: 124.6
+  2023-01-01: 131.7
+  2024-01-01: 133.8
+  2025-01-01: 135.9
+  2026-01-01: 138.2
+  2027-01-01: 140.9
+  2028-01-01: 143.7
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  reference:
+    - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
+      href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2024/
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+description: OBR forecast for house prices.
+values:
+  2008-01-01: 88.2
+  2009-01-01: 85.3
+  2010-01-01: 88.4
+  2011-01-01: 87.2
+  2012-01-01: 87.9
+  2013-01-01: 91.3
+  2014-01-01: 98.6
+  2015-01-01: 104.9
+  2016-01-01: 111.2
+  2017-01-01: 116.2
+  2018-01-01: 119.3
+  2019-01-01: 120.4
+  2020-01-01: 125.9
+  2021-01-01: 137.2
+  2022-01-01: 148.7
+  2023-01-01: 147.6
+  2024-01-01: 144.1
+  2025-01-01: 144.8
+  2026-01-01: 148.6
+  2027-01-01: 153.8
+  2028-01-01: 159.5
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-GBP
+  reference:
+    - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
+      href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2024/
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+description: OBR forecast for mixed income (largely self-employment income).
+values:
+  2012-01-01: 103.4
+  2013-01-01: 111.5
+  2014-01-01: 114.9
+  2015-01-01: 124.5
+  2016-01-01: 128.0
+  2017-01-01: 140.0
+  2018-01-01: 144.2
+  2019-01-01: 151.3
+  2020-01-01: 153.7
+  2021-01-01: 158.3
+  2022-01-01: 161.9
+  2023-01-01: 171.5
+  2024-01-01: 178.2
+  2025-01-01: 185.3
+  2026-01-01: 193.5
+  2027-01-01: 202.3
+  2028-01-01: 211.8
+metadata:
+  reference:
+    - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
+      href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2024/
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+description: OBR forecast for household debt service costs.
+values:
+  2008-01-01: 92.7
+  2009-01-01: 69.0
+  2010-01-01: 64.0
+  2011-01-01: 61.6
+  2012-01-01: 61.3
+  2013-01-01: 61.0
+  2014-01-01: 59.2
+  2015-01-01: 57.7
+  2016-01-01: 56.9
+  2017-01-01: 55.8
+  2018-01-01: 56.9
+  2019-01-01: 57.4
+  2020-01-01: 53.1
+  2021-01-01: 52.3
+  2022-01-01: 60.5
+  2023-01-01: 86.6
+  2024-01-01: 110.8
+  2025-01-01: 109.2
+  2026-01-01: 113.2
+  2027-01-01: 119.7
+  2028-01-01: 125.2
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-GBP
+  reference:
+    - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
+      href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2024/
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+description: OBR forecast for non-labour income.
+values:
+  2012-01-01: 268.6
+  2013-01-01: 281.4
+  2014-01-01: 298.4
+  2015-01-01: 335.0
+  2016-01-01: 329.0
+  2017-01-01: 339.3
+  2018-01-01: 355.1
+  2019-01-01: 363.9
+  2020-01-01: 342.5
+  2021-01-01: 367.1
+  2022-01-01: 425.2
+  2023-01-01: 458.1
+  2024-01-01: 456.5
+  2025-01-01: 482.6
+  2026-01-01: 504.4
+  2027-01-01: 543.6
+  2028-01-01: 585.3
+metadata:
+  reference:
+    - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
+      href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2024/
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py b/policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/budget_change.py
@@ -163,7 +163,6 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters):
                 [equivalised_income <= upper_bounds[i] for i in range(10)],
                 list(range(1, 11)),
             )
-            print(decile)
         # Set negatives to -1.
         # This avoids the bottom decile summing to a negative number,
         # which would flip the % change in the interface.

diff --git a/.../dwp/housing_benefit/non_dep_deduction/household_benefits_individual_non_dep_deduction.py b/.../dwp/housing_benefit/non_dep_deduction/household_benefits_individual_non_dep_deduction.py
@@ -13,5 +13,4 @@ def formula(person, period, parameters):
         p = parameters(period).gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction
         weekly_income = person("total_income", period) / WEEKS_IN_YEAR
         deduction = p.amount.calc(weekly_income, right=True)
-        print(weekly_income)
         return deduction * WEEKS_IN_YEAR
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/household/income/income.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/household/income/income.py
@@ -188,17 +188,17 @@ class inflation_adjustment(Variable):
     unit = "/1"
 
     def formula(household, period, parameters):
-        cpi = parameters.calibration.uprating.CPI
+        cpi = parameters.gov.obr.consumer_price_index
         current_period_cpi = cpi(period)
-        now_cpi = cpi(datetime.datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d"))
+        now_cpi = cpi(datetime.datetime.now().strftime("%Y-01-01"))
         return now_cpi / current_period_cpi
 
 
 class real_household_net_income(Variable):
     label = (
         f"real household net income ({datetime.datetime.now().year} prices)"
     )
-    entity = Person
+    entity = Household
     definition_period = YEAR
     value_type = float
     unit = GBP
@@ -208,22 +208,6 @@ def formula(household, period, parameters):
         return net_income * household("inflation_adjustment", period)
 
 
-class real_household_net_income(Variable):
-    label = "Real household net income"
-    documentation = "Disposable income in January 2015 prices"
-    entity = Household
-    definition_period = YEAR
-    value_type = float
-    unit = GBP
-
-    def formula(household, period, parameters):
-        def cpi(period):
-            return parameters(period).calibration.uprating.CPI
-
-        multiplier = cpi("2015-01-01") / cpi(period)
-        return household("household_net_income", period) * multiplier
-
-
 class hbai_household_net_income_ahc(Variable):
     value_type = float
     entity = Household
@@ -360,6 +344,13 @@ class household_market_income(Variable):
         "capital_gains",
     ]
 
+    def formula(person, period, parameters):
+        total = add(person, period, household_market_income.adds)
+        contrib = parameters(
+            period
+        ).gov.contrib.policyengine.economy.gdp_per_capita
+        return total * (contrib + 1)
+
 
 class household_income_decile(Variable):
     label = "household income decile"

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/maintenance.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/input/consumption/property/maintenance.py
@@ -44,6 +44,7 @@ class mortgage_interest_repayment(Variable):
     documentation = "Total amount spent on mortgage interest repayments"
     definition_period = YEAR
     unit = GBP
+    uprating = "gov.obr.mortgage_interest"
 
 
 class mortgage_capital_repayment(Variable):
@@ -52,6 +53,7 @@ class mortgage_capital_repayment(Variable):
     label = "mortgage capital repayments"
     definition_period = YEAR
     unit = GBP
+    uprating = "gov.obr.house_prices"
 
 
 class council_tax(Variable):

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/input/income.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/input/income.py
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ class employment_income_before_lsr(Variable):
     label = "employment income before labor supply responses"
     unit = GBP
     definition_period = YEAR
-    uprating = "calibration.programs.employment_income.budgetary_impact.UNITED_KINGDOM"
+    uprating = "gov.obr.average_earnings"
 
 
 class private_pension_income(Variable):
@@ -37,9 +37,7 @@ class private_pension_income(Variable):
     unit = GBP
     reference = "Income Tax (Earnings and Pensions) Act 2003 s. 1(1)(b)"
     quantity_type = FLOW
-    uprating = (
-        "calibration.programs.private_pension_income.budgetary_impact.ENGLAND"
-    )
+    uprating = "gov.obr.non_labour_income"
 
     def formula(person, period, parameters):
         # Don't have data, use the old pension income
@@ -62,9 +60,7 @@ class pension_income(Variable):
     unit = GBP
     reference = "Income Tax (Earnings and Pensions) Act 2003 s. 1(1)(b)"
     quantity_type = FLOW
-    uprating = (
-        "calibration.programs.private_pension_income.budgetary_impact.ENGLAND"
-    )
+    uprating = "gov.obr.non_labour_income"
 
 
 class state_pension(Variable):
@@ -105,7 +101,7 @@ class self_employment_income(Variable):
     unit = GBP
     reference = "Income Tax (Trading and Other Income) Act 2005 s. 1(1)(a)"
     quantity_type = FLOW
-    uprating = "calibration.programs.self_employment_income.budgetary_impact.UNITED_KINGDOM"
+    uprating = "gov.obr.mixed_income"
 
 
 class property_income(Variable):
@@ -117,9 +113,7 @@ class property_income(Variable):
     reference = "Income Tax (Trading and Other Income) Act 2005 s. 1(1)(b)"
     unit = GBP
     quantity_type = FLOW
-    uprating = (
-        "calibration.programs.property_income.budgetary_impact.UNITED_KINGDOM"
-    )
+    uprating = "gov.obr.non_labour_income"
 
 
 class savings_interest_income(Variable):
@@ -131,7 +125,7 @@ class savings_interest_income(Variable):
     reference = "Income Tax (Trading and Other Income) Act 2005 s. 365(1)(a)"
     unit = GBP
     quantity_type = FLOW
-    uprating = "calibration.programs.savings_interest_income.budgetary_impact.UNITED_KINGDOM"
+    uprating = "gov.obr.non_labour_income"
 
 
 class dividend_income(Variable):
@@ -143,9 +137,7 @@ class dividend_income(Variable):
     reference = "Income Tax (Trading and Other Income) Act 2005 s. 365(1)(b-d)"
     unit = GBP
     quantity_type = FLOW
-    uprating = (
-        "calibration.programs.dividend_income.budgetary_impact.UNITED_KINGDOM"
-    )
+    uprating = "gov.obr.non_labour_income"
 
 
 class sublet_income(Variable):
@@ -155,9 +147,7 @@ class sublet_income(Variable):
     documentation = "Income from subletting properties"
     definition_period = YEAR
     unit = GBP
-    uprating = (
-        "calibration.programs.property_income.budgetary_impact.UNITED_KINGDOM"
-    )
+    uprating = "gov.obr.non_labour_income"
 
 
 class miscellaneous_income(Variable):
@@ -167,7 +157,7 @@ class miscellaneous_income(Variable):
     documentation = "Income from any other source"
     definition_period = YEAR
     unit = GBP
-    uprating = "calibration.programs.employment_income.budgetary_impact.UNITED_KINGDOM"
+    uprating = "gov.obr.non_labour_income"
 
 
 class private_transfer_income(Variable):